An ongoing debate between Spencer and I has centered over whether or not the Red Sox should have traded for Jermaine Dye this season. I am firmly in the camp that it would not have been worth giving up on Drew and trading prospects while Spencer feels like Dye is the missing link that would make this good team great. After arguing about this with Spencer and Bill for the better part of last night as we waited for the Sox Sox game that never was, I open the Metro sports section to this headline:
"Red Sox missed out on Dye job." The article goes on to say, "the 6-foot-5, 240-pounder could have been the perfect antidote to a wildly inconsistent and sometimes inadequate Red Sox offense."
There is no debate over who has more raw power. Over their careers, Dye has hit 20 or more HRs 7 times while JD has only done this 3 times. However, I think solely looking at HRs vastly overlooks Dye's weaknesses and undervalues Drew's strengths.
Let's look at some of the PECOTA metrics that measure a players total contribution to the offense: VORP and EQA.
VORP:
'07 '06 '05
Dye 7.8 64.6 27.7
Drew 5.6 34.9 26.9
EQA
'07 '06 '05
Dye .259 .312 .277
Drew .257 .299 .320
EQA is a translated statistic to mirror how we think about batting average so "batting" an EQA of .300 would be considered good and "batting" an EQA of .330 would be considered great.
Over their careers, Dye has finished the season with an EQA over .300 only two times in 13 seasons with 200+ at bats. Drew has finished with an EQA over .300 FOUR times in 9 seasons with over 200 AB (this includes every year he has played except for his rookie season of 36 ABs. He also had a season with an EQA of .299)
From these metrics, I conclude that Drew is a better offensive value than Dye. Even though Dye is on a hot streak, how long it lasts and if it would carry over into the postseason are two unknowns that I wouldn't trade Delcarman for or give up on Drew for (who we have for the next 4 years, like it or not).
3 comments:
This is a hilarious argument. Look what you just posted.
"
VORP:
'07 '06 '05
Dye 7.8 64.6 27.7
Drew 5.6 34.9 26.9
EQA
'07 '06 '05
Dye .259 .312 .277
Drew .257 .299 .320"
So uh, Dye has had a higher vorp every year, and a higher EQA two of the last three years (and SUBSTANTIALLY higher in both categories in 2006).
Two paragraphs later...
"From these metrics, I conclude that Drew is a better offensive value than Dye."
hmmmmmmmm
Ok, I see that you choose to ignore the entirety of the second to last paragraph - convenient. The point is that the difference has been marginal over the last few years and not worth giving up prospects for. A two point difference in VORP is pretty minimal. Plus, Drew has historically had several more "productive" seasons than Dye(as measured by his EQA). Your love for Dye is based on how many HR he hits, but if you look use more than the HR to measure offensive value, they are pretty similar.
I really enjoyed the fact that J.D. Drew hit his first homerun since June 20th in the first game after this was posted as if he was trying to convince Spencer that he's not terrible. Of course Dye followed suit a couple of innings later.
But I think the real thing to remember is that both of these guys have been terrible this year. J.D. has absolutely no power at a position where you're expected to produce. Dye is hitting homeruns, but can't get on base to save his life (a brutal 0.313 OBP).
Trading prospects for marginal production isn't a good idea, but signing them to 5 year deals isn't such a great plan either. While I honestly don't know which I'd prefer the Sox to have - J.D. and his brutal contract or Jermaine Dye and giving up Manny Delcarmen and a couple other low prospects, I think Mark is right - you definitely don't want to do both.
Thank God Lowell has avoided his usual 2nd half slump and Pedroia has been great as a rookie, otherwise the offense could be pretty brutal.
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