Last time I ran these projections, Bill was on top of a tight race with 40 points. The projections were not kind to Caleb, showing a huge drop off in HR and RBI rates. This time around a few roster changes and a couple of injuries have shaken up the projected order of finish slightly.
Right now, the biggest injury concerns at the top of the projections are between two righties with shoulder issues. The status of AJ Burnett and Curt Schilling are very much up in the air right now and their respective returns to action could be pivotal in a tight race.
Pete Rose and Marginally Effective are given an outside shot at the title, while Warning Track Power plummets mightily. Pete Rose will need a big second half from Richie Sexson. Chone Figgins has been a pleasant surprise after starting out slow coming back from injury. Warning Track can take solace in the fact that a large part of his projected decline has to do with Sheffield who, with one more homerun, will double his projected HR total for the year. My concern would be more with A-Rod who may or may not remain motivated in playing baseball once the Yankees are realistically eliminated from the playoffs (especially if his hammy is still tight). Marginally Effective has dug a bit of a hole for himself and will need to make some upgrades to his pitching staff thought trades or savvy free agent signings. He may have already found that guy in Andrew Miller who undoubtedly get more production than his 44 projected innings allow for. Will it be enough?
As is, the projections are run with Burnett and Schilling on the active roster. Both could be back late July/early August... or not at all.
Projected Standings
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP | Total | |
| Licker Store AllStars | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 42.0 |
| Berkeley Hoboes | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 42.0 |
| Marginally Effective | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 38.0 |
| The Pete Rose Legacy | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 34.0 |
| Warning Track Power | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 28.0 |
| YOOOUUUK! | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 26.0 |
Projected +/- by category
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP | Total | |
| Licker Store AllStars | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -2.0 | -1.0 | -5.0 |
| Berkeley Hoboes | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 |
| Marginally Effective | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 |
| The Pete Rose Legacy | -1.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 |
| Warning Track Power | -3.0 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -11.0 |
| YOOOUUUK! | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
3 comments:
Very good point on A-Rod, that hadn't really crossed my mind. His injury turned out to be a non-factor, and I'm not worried about Sheffield reverting to their projections (the projections were wrong, that's pretty obvious at this point). I guess the Yankees had better surge a little - just a little. Maybe it'll light a fire under the Sox if they do.
I still don't see my team dropping off a cliff like that. I'll be very surprised if it happens.
I'm not a BP subscriber, so I wasn't able to read the article you linked when you last calculated the projections. Are you using BP's original start-of-the-season projections, or more recent projections made for the 2nd half of the season?
They do update the projections, although they remain very similar to the preseason projections and are for the entire year. What I did was take each players real life first half stats and add 1/2 of projected stats to that. So for Sheff, they projected 11 Hrs all year, which gives him approximately 5 more projected HRs for second half of the season. The twist to this is that they only projected 332 at bats for shef, which basically means the models think he'll be injured at some point. What these projections don't take into account is the fact that you can sub a player in if/when Sheff goes down. Teams with more injury risk on their roster are going to have lower projected stats, which they can mitigate with their bench players.
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