BP subscribers can click here for the article that inspired all of this.
A couple of things immediately jump out in these projections. The inability to predict injuries and the dynamic nature of your lineup are not accounted for. People don't play same pitchers each week and who knows who may end up on the DL. In any event, I think the BP projections are probably the most respected out there and this seems the best way to get an estimate of the final standings. Trades, injuries, free agent pickups not withstanding.
| Projected Standings | |||||||||||
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP | Total | |
| Berkeley Hoboes | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 40.0 |
| The Pete Rose Legacy | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 39.0 |
| Licker Store AllStars | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 38.0 |
| Marginally Effective | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 37.0 |
| Warning Track Power | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 30.0 |
| YOOOUUUK! | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 26.0 |
| Projected +/- | |||||||||||
| Berkeley Hoboes | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 |
| Marginally Effective | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.5 |
| YOOOUUUK! | 1.0 | -2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 |
| The Pete Rose Legacy | -1.0 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
| Licker Store AllStars | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -2.0 | -4.0 | 1.0 | -0.5 | -3.0 |
| Warning Track Power | -2.0 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | -1.5 | -10.5 |
In these projections, Mr. Bill squeaks out the title with 40 points... A lot of regression towards the mean is going on here as the current 3 top teams all lose points while the bottom 3 teams all gain points. The biggest loser is Caleb who is projected to fall all the way down to 30 points. Caleb will need A-Rod and Sheffield to hit well above their projections to prevent this tumble (only 26 more HRs projected between the two).
Bill's offense on the other hand takes off as Konerko, Gordon, and Wells belt 50 homeruns. Beltre's numbers are very similar to Gordon's so either option should produce. On the mound, the pitching holds steady with no projected points drop in ERA or WHIP.
I'll redo these as the season progresses... Especially when key guys go down, players come back from the DL, or a trade is made.
2 comments:
Woohoo! If you'd like to save some money and get your payment out of the way early I'll knock a dollar off the cost.
While I don't necessarily expect to win (at least until I'm out of 4th place), it is nice to know that Baseball Prospectus doesn't think I drafted like an idiot.
Apparently BP DOES think I drafted like an idiot, but I'm pretty confident that the 2nd half of the season won't go down like this. More than 26 home runs between A-Rod and Sheff? No problem. A-Rod might do that himself. In his SLEEP.
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