Transaction Analysis - Jermaine Dye

Traded: Robinson Cano and Rocco Baldelli (Pete Rose) for Jermaine Dye and Tadihito Iguchi (Youke).

The first trade of the league has taken place featuring two under performing players. Jermaine Dye provides some much needed power to Pete Rose Legacy while Robinson Cano is a potential keeper for Yoouke at a thin position.

First I will look at Dye with analysis on Cano later.

The concerning thing about Dye is that he has essential played 2.5 consecutive months of sub-par and awful baseball. Last September, Dye hit .256/5/13 and so far this season is hitting .203/6/17. Another .315/44/120 season is not going to happen. Last season (up until September) Dye was hitting one home run every 11.5 at bats - a torrid pace. Since then, Dye is hitting one home run every 19.3 at bats, which is much more in line with his career numbers (1 per 20.7 AB). While this is a large drop from last year, it doesn't surprise me that Dye has regressed to his mean - most players with huge seasons do. He is striking out more than last year, but not outside his range (at his current pace he will come close or just pass his career high). Interestingly, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is about the best it's ever been, which is usually indicative of improved hitting. On the upside, the balls he does hit in play are only dropping for hits at a .221 rate (league average ~ .290), which will undoubtedly improve considering his low ground ball percentage.

What this all tells me is that Dye is up there trying to hit 50 homeruns while he is really only a 30 HR guy. Without Thome in the lineup, Dye is the only true HR threat and probably puts pressure on himself to hit for power. All this has done is decimate his average while not producing any more home runs for himself. Assuming one home run per 19 at bats and 530 at bats, Dye will hit 27-28 home runs in 2007. He's already hit 6, leaving 21-22 more for Spencer. To improve his average to a modest .265 by the end of the season, Dye will have to hit .280 from today on. I think this is a reachable goal, and one I'm assuming he'll based on his increased value over the last 3 seasons.

For RBI's and runs, the decreased average and on base percentage has hurt. Dye was driving in 0.2 batters per plate appearance in 2006 - a rate that rewarded him with 120 RBIs. In 2007, Dye's RBI rate has dropped to 0.12. Assuming that Dye improves his average, his RBI rate should climb closer to 0.17. Currently, runners are on base 55.6% of the time Dye is up to bat. Even if this drops to 50 percent when Thome returns, Dye will still have roughly the same number of opportunities as he's had in the past. Translated over 463 more plate appearances, this should give Dye 78 more RBI (95 for the year).

In summary, Dye gets Spencer
.280/21/78

Not too shabby. Considering the lack of HR and RBI producers on his team, I think this acquisition will be beneficial. Of course, this all assumes Dye breaks out of his slump.

Thoughts on Cano to follow...