At first I thought that Spencer was making a mistake giving up Cano and Baldelli, two solid young players with keeper possibilities. Of all the teams, he had one that could sacrifice speed from a middle infielder for batting average (which is lacking from speedsters like Podsednik or Figgins) and a bunch of runs from the Yankees strong lineup. However, looking more closely at Robinson Cano's stats, this season is looking like an absolute disaster for him unless he quickly develops more plate discipline. Unlike Dye (or Baldelli for that matter), Cano has a perfectly reasonable BABIP of 0.290. His success in 2005 (0.320) and especially 2006 (0.363) was driven by BABIP. On top of the BABIP drop, he also isn't putting the ball in play nearly as often. His strike out rate is up from 10% and 12% all the way up to 20%. A high strikeout rate isn't necessarily bad, lots of excellent power hitters have high rates, but for someone who doesn't hit a lot of homeruns and relies on putting the ball in play and legging out a single that kind of spike in K rate cripples their value.
The reason his numbers are down is pretty clear - he's chasing an awful lot of bad pitches. According to the Stats Inc. data available on ESPN, he's chasing around 50% of pitches inside (58% up and in, 53% in, 41% down and in). He's also chasing 76% of the pitches that are high and over the middle, which is the highest percentage I could find doing a quick search for some notorious hackers.
If Cano can stop chasing pitches and Baldelli can stay healthy, Youk! might come out ahead on this one. But Dye seems like a much safer better bounce-back possibility to me, even if he isn't worth a keeper slot. He's also the best player in the trade, and Youk! doesn't have a clear starting spot for Baldelli (or Cano for that matter if Jose Lopez can match his 2006 season), so Spencer's everyday line-up gets a much needed power and RBI boost.
3 comments:
I agree with Bill's analysis on Cano. The most unsettling thing about him is his inability to see the ball well right now. His isolated power is 125% lower than it was for last season and he is striking out twice as often - a recipe for futility.
It is hard to predict what Cano will contribute for the remainder of the season. As Bill pointed out, Cano cannot use the "I'm hitting the ball well, but it's just being caught" excuse due to his .290 BABIP. However, because of the lineup he plays in, any improvement in his swing could quickly inflate his stats .
It's way to early to make any rash assessments about Cano and generally I like this deal for Youk! given the potential value down the road. Even with his slump, Cano is still arguably the best 24 year old second base "prospect" in the AL. Hendrick and Kinsler also have potential, but neither has batted .340 in a major league season.
Jose Lopez's average has dropped 50 points in May, and he's not contributing much else. I think Cano definitely has a starting edge over him.
You guys have pretty much said it all. Cano (and Dye, actually) probably overperformed (and was thusly overrated coughMcCarvercough) more than almost anyone else last year. He's not a .340 hitter. He probably is a .300 hitter, and in the lineup he's in he'll bad plenty of RBI and runs, if he manages to get his shit together this year.
I think Baldelli might turn out to be the most interesting part of this trade.
Baldelli might be the most interesting piece in the trade, but he could also end up doing nothing at all. At some point when a player consistently gets hurt you have to start expecting it and lower your expectations.
As for the best AL second base prospect, I'd say that coming into this season Cano was probably #1, but Kendrick has the look or a real .330 hitter to me. As for Kinsler, I like him an awful lot, but he's a better fantasy baseball player than a real one. Those 10-20 steals and a few extra homeruns go a long way in making up for a significantly lower batting average.
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