Season ends in disappointment

In a performance that can only be felt like Mets fans on this day, the LickerStore AllStars have a long and lonely off season to look forward to. Thank you Justin Morneau. You are a complete fuck head.

CHAMPIONS

I'd like to thank the academy, Caleb for trading me A-rod, Justin Morneau for his phenomenal second half, and Joe Nathan for a day bad enough to move Andrew behind me in WHIP.

One year, one championship. After all the barbs taken at my NL style draft, I will be laughing the longest now my friends....all off season. Let the dynasty begin.

To win...

I need two runs, one RBI, and one stolen base to tie Spencer. Christ, if I have a half-way decent day today I could have easily wrapped it up. Time is starting to run out in the late games though...

Game Blog

This about writes the book for the Licker Store AllStars. A very disappointing end to the season. A measly thirteen uninspired at bats on the final day. Bill still has a shot with Kinser and Beltre in the late afternoon game and needs a win from Robertson and a ND or loss from Gaudin....



Jeter, Sizemore, and Hafner taken out of the game. Not good.

Coming down to the wire... A home run will pull me into a tie for first.

Hmmm... Delmon Young into the game. This guy is a head case.

Fields hit a two run home run off the glove of magglio. four to three tiger lead. Pete rose now four rbi back.

Robertson pitching well. Detroit leading four to one in the fifth.

Dye drives in a run. Spencer desperately trying to stay withing striking distance of Youk in RBI. 6 back at Three Twenty EDT

Mora scores. LS 5 runs behind Y

(Three PM) Youk on fire. Guillen hits a home run. Youk now 6 runs ahead of LS.

Pronk doubles in two runs. Tied with the Hoboes in rbi now.

Mags doubles in a run.... Spencer three rbi behind Youk.

So far, Spencer has no one on the bench... Bill has four and I have three. [edit] Johjima is out.

A-Rod playing on the last day of the season... and get an RBI on a flopper... Jeter scores.

Homerun Carlos Pena. Damn this guy is good. Anyone could have had him too. Youk takes the lead in HR.

And Youk draws first blood

Unsurprisingly he does it with a homerun from Carlos Pena. I nearly picked up Pena early in the season and instead opted for Dan Johnson. I figure I'd have about 60 points by now if I snagged Pena.

Mea Culpa

Earlier this season I objected to someone's suggestion (via BP) that I was due to get just 6 homeruns out of Gary Sheffield in the second half of the season.

I got 4. My bad. Thanks Gary.

Roster Notes

UPDATED: Three Fifteen Eastern

Starting Pitching:

Youk: Chad Gaudin vs LAA
Hoboes: Nate Robertson vs CHW
Licker Store: King Felix vs Texas, AJ Burnett vs Tampa
Pete Rose: Jered Weaver vs Oakland

OUT:

Hoboes: B.J. Upton; Nick Markakis; Jorge Posada; Peralta
Licker Store: Delmon Young; Brian Roberts; Victor Martinez, G. Anderson
Youk: Robinson Cano; Mauer, JD Drew, Ibanez
Warning Track: Aubry Huff; I. Rodriguez, Sheffield, Michael Young
Marginally Effective: Vlad
Pete Rose: Johjima

FINAL DAY

To set the table:

What the hell happened!?! Is Youk really going to win this thing... how did the top 3 teams lose 6 points collectively on the second to last day of the year.

3 way tie for HR: LS, WTP and Y tied at 177. BH 3 back.

Runs: BH 1 back from LS. LS 2 back from Y.

RBI: LS 2 back from BH. PRL: 4 back from Y

SB: BH 1 back from LS. LS 2 back from PRL

AVG: BH and Y tied at .282. WTP .001 behind PRL.

Wins: BH tied with Y

K's: Y ten behind LS


Holy shit... this is gonna be fun.

5 More Days

A paltry 5 days left in the season and this year is TOAST. The crown awaits patiently for the inaugural Durham Plays for Keeps Champion. We have a three way race to the finish that could be determined in the final inning of the final game. A stolen base here, a run there, a hit and a strikeout away from glory or shame. The line between internal infamy and forgettable goat doesn't get any thinner than this.

There WILL be an actual "trophy" for the eventual winner (Not sure what it will be yet, but I'll find something).

Also - very important - There is going to be a live game blog on Sunday as I watch each and every game through MLB.TV and Stat Tracker. I'll try to report on each relevant at bat, run, pitch, etc... After the season over there will be a ballot on a couple of rule changes to vote on.

GAME ON!

FINAL WEEK

This is what you play for baby. Should be a dramatic final week as we deal with people subbing starters out of their lineups for playoffs etc..

btw andrew illegally picked up that catcher for the rangers that's hard to spell (saltamachiiaa) or whatever. might want to kick him out of the league.

CMON BABY FINAL PUSH

what the hell

Since the right-hander is up to 215 innings this season, the Rays have decided to shut down James Shields, effective immediately.

This is quite a surprise. We thought Scott Kazmir might get shut down, but he'll make two more starts and be limited to 100 pitches in both. J.P. Howell is going to start Wednesday in place of Shields, who finishes his breakthrough year 12-8 with a 3.85 ERA and a 184/36 K/BB ratio.

Catching Bill

He has a very nice lead now...but things are close in a lot of categories...he could run away with it or be brought down to earth...should be an interesting final 2 weeks.

That was a very good day

Hopefully I'll be able to hang on to some of those points, although a really good day with runs or wins could pick me up another few points. While I can't really expect to score 8, drive in 14, hit 3 homeruns, and steal 2 bags a day, it looks like this last month of the season will be very interesting...
It is amazing how tight all the offensive categories are when there hasn't been a ton of action in any of the pitching categories besides wins.

Jermaine Dye versus J.D. Drew

An ongoing debate between Spencer and I has centered over whether or not the Red Sox should have traded for Jermaine Dye this season. I am firmly in the camp that it would not have been worth giving up on Drew and trading prospects while Spencer feels like Dye is the missing link that would make this good team great. After arguing about this with Spencer and Bill for the better part of last night as we waited for the Sox Sox game that never was, I open the Metro sports section to this headline:

"Red Sox missed out on Dye job." The article goes on to say, "the 6-foot-5, 240-pounder could have been the perfect antidote to a wildly inconsistent and sometimes inadequate Red Sox offense."

There is no debate over who has more raw power. Over their careers, Dye has hit 20 or more HRs 7 times while JD has only done this 3 times. However, I think solely looking at HRs vastly overlooks Dye's weaknesses and undervalues Drew's strengths.

Let's look at some of the PECOTA metrics that measure a players total contribution to the offense: VORP and EQA.

VORP:
'07 '06 '05
Dye 7.8 64.6 27.7
Drew 5.6 34.9 26.9


EQA
'07 '06 '05
Dye .259 .312 .277
Drew .257 .299 .320

EQA is a translated statistic to mirror how we think about batting average so "batting" an EQA of .300 would be considered good and "batting" an EQA of .330 would be considered great.

Over their careers, Dye has finished the season with an EQA over .300 only two times in 13 seasons with 200+ at bats. Drew has finished with an EQA over .300 FOUR times in 9 seasons with over 200 AB (this includes every year he has played except for his rookie season of 36 ABs. He also had a season with an EQA of .299)

From these metrics, I conclude that Drew is a better offensive value than Dye. Even though Dye is on a hot streak, how long it lasts and if it would carry over into the postseason are two unknowns that I wouldn't trade Delcarman for or give up on Drew for (who we have for the next 4 years, like it or not).

Oh C'mon.

Texas scores 30 runs and Michael Young doesn't get a single RBI. How does that even happen?

Meanwhile, Dave Murphy (who I was hoping would get a permanent big league spot with the Sox next year so that I could get a Murphy shirt) is batting .550, and Gagne blows.

My god, what has he done.

With the first pick in the 2008 draft, Pete Rose Legacy drafts... Alex Rodriguez. With the second pick of the 2008 draft, Pete Rose Legacy drafts Johan Santana.

Fuck us all.

Seriously though, what was the rationale behind this deal? The best category for Caleb to gain points is in RBI. He just traded away the league leader in RBIs and HRs for a player who is vastly under performing and is hampered by a bad knee. Ortiz will probably become only the 3rd player in MLB history to hit 50+ hrs one year and less than 30 the next (Gonzo and Brady Anderson). With the new players, Caleb has a shot at gaining 1 point in SB and 1 point in average, but that won't even be close to enough to win the league even if his HR numbers hold. Johjima for Pudge is pretty equal, although seeing that Johjima is 4 years younger and has better PECOTA projections than Pudge, I'd value Johjima a little higher in a keeper league. Ichiro is a nice player, but nowhere near the caliber of A-Rod.

Can someone rationalize this to make me feel better? Spencer will have the 2 best players in the AL all next year. That is a significant advantage especially considering that one of the two is only going to cost a 2nd round pick. AH!!!!

Keeper Rules

Ok, because this may have an impact on how people value keepers for a trade, lets make sure everyone is clear on the keeper rule. If there are any objections to the keeper format or the proposed keeper draft values speak now or forever hold your peace.

At the conclusion of the season, each team will have until March 1 to designate up to 5 players as keepers. In addition, a team can designate 1 "prospect pick". This is a player that has been on your roster since August 7th and has never had >100 AB or >50 IP in a single major league season.

A player can be kept a total of 3 times. This gives you 4 seasons with any given player. Prospects can be kept as a your prospect pick indefinitely until they have a season with 100 AB or 50 IP. After that, they may be kept a total of 3 times as one of your five regular keeper picks.

If a keeper is traded he is still considered to have been kept in the previous season(s). If a player is dropped, his keeper status is automatically reset.

Proposed Keeper Draft Values: The value of your keeper increases 10 percent (rounded up) for the 3rd and 4th year drafts. So, a player drafted in the 20th round this year will be a 20 round pick next year, an 18th round pick in year 3, and a 16th round pick in year 4.

If you end up with multiple picks in a round (e.g. 2 third round picks) the subsequent rounds will be used. (e.g. 2 third round picks = 1 third and 1 fourth round pick).

Initial Draft	Y2	Y3	Y4
1	1	1	1
2	2	1	1
3	3	2	1
4	4	3	2
5	5	4	3
6	6	5	4
7	7	6	5
8	8	7	6
9	9	8	7
10	10	9	8
11	11	9	8
12	12	10	9
13	13	11	9
14	14	12	10
15	15	13	11
16	16	14	12
17	17	15	13
18	18	16	14
19	19	17	15
20	20	18	16
21	21	18	16
22	22	19	17
23	23	20	18
24	24	21	18
25	25	22	19

NL stats are NOT being counted

I don't think that is right. While it initially looks like Texiera is still accumulating points, if you look at the team log this is Teixeira's stat line:
H/AB: 85/286
Runs: 48
HR: 13
RBI: 49
SB: 0

These match his totals for the AL only. His current total for the season:
H/AB: 90/301
Runs: 53
HR: 16
RBI: 56
SB: 0

The difference between the two stat lines is identical to the stats he has accumulated in his 3 games with Atlanta:
H/AB: 5/15
Runs: 5
HR: 3
RBI: 7
SB: 0

So I think what is happening is that the stat tracker makes it look like NL stats are counting, but at the end of the day when the stats are actually tallied, anything from an NL game does not count in our AL only league.

RE: Yahoo Ruling

Apparently what Yahoo said is incorrect. Teixeira is still on Youk's roster and was accumulating points for him. It works out b/c we rather not lose players to the NL. However, any players traded to the AL from the NL are still not eligible to be picked up. So that catcher from atlanta with the 14 letter name (Saltamamaccia?) is not eligible.

One more keeper rule question

When you say that someone can be "kept" for 3 years, does that mean I can KEEP them for 3 years (and have them for 4 years on my roster, this year, and then the 3 years I keep them) or does it mean I get them on my roster for 3 years?

Keepers and the trade deadline/2 month minimum

So, if I were to trade Big Papi for prospects on someone else's team, those prospects would meet the 2 month requirement even if they weren't on my team for those two months?

Andrew

Not fantasy baseball related...

But have any of you who don't live in Boston been watching the Devil Rays series this weekend on MLB.tv? They have to be among the worst announcers in the game. On Friday they got the two trades wrong, saying that Tadahito Iguchi and Kenny Lofton were traded and that Iguchi was traded for Max Ramirez. And they never corrected themselves. Ever.

Last night they complained about a bad check swing call that put Youks on base without mentioning an equally bad check swing call that allowed Upton to reach the inning before. They just wouldn't let it go and kept saying that Reyes got 5 outs to get them out of the inning (Gomes misplayed a ball in LF).

Just now in Sunday's game they complained about the fact that Kazmir didn't throw a fastball to Wily M. Pena when they thought he should have. Pena is Pedro fucking Cerrano. He cannot hit a breaking ball to save his life. He annihilates fastballs from lefties. It is the only thing he does well. Their announcing is just mind blowingly bad.

Offseason trades

So, do we want to allow trades during the offseason? Obviously it would only matter if both teams wanted to keep the players traded, but I think it could be interesting. I suppose another matter is if it will actually work with Yahoo, but I'm guessing if we got rid of the "official" trading deadline we could make it work. Is anyone else interested in this?

My two cents on roster expansion

Sorry I'm jumping in a bit late on this, but I was out in the field for the last week and a half so I didn't have much internet access. I'm all for expanding the number of starting players, but I think we might want to drop the limit on the number of moves. With a weekly line-up and a limit on the number of innings pitched I don't think streaming is an issue.

Also, I'm going to have to disagree with Caleb's statement that there isn't pitching on the waiver wire. There isn't solid starting pitching that will do everything for you (and this is right after a waiver wire run on starting pitching), but there are guys like Petitte that will get you strike outs, but might hurt you a bit on WHIP or ERA, guys like Meche who started out well but have struggled some lately, and guys who are on good teams that happen to pitching well right now (Gabbard and DiNardo). That doesn't even address the middle relievers who would help WHIP and ERA while piling up as many strikeouts as some of the lower level starters. In deeper leagues these guys would be played and it would be up to the managers to decide how to balance the various weaknesses a player has. Right now there isn't much pressure to roll the dice on marginal players, which I think is part of the game. Guys who are playing well end up as free agents forever (look how long Carlos Pena was available for absolutely nothing).

Carrying two catchers is the only spot where I could see some pretty shitty players ending up starting on rosters, but I'm not sure that it would put tons of extra value on the position.

Yahoo Ruling

Hello Spencer,

Thank you for writing to Yahoo! Sports.

I appreciate your inquiry with regards to AL/NL only player trades.

If a player in the National League is traded to the American League (or vice versa), the team that has the player in a league using National League players only will no longer accrue stats for that player.

If the player is removed from the team, he will no longer be available to the league.

Additionally, any player who is traded between leagues will be introduced to AL-only or NL-only leagues via waivers.

Regretfully, it is not possible to customize a AL or NL-only league to allow managers to continue earning stats if a player is traded out of the league.

I value your interest in Yahoo! Fantasy Sports. Whenever you have further comments or questions, please feel free to email me again.

Thank you again for contacting Yahoo! Sports.

Yo Commish

Question - I think we decided that if a player gets traded to a NL team, we get to continue getting stats for that player for this year, but obviously can't be kept if he stays there.

1) I'm not sure Yahoo! does this - I get the feeling that as soon as someone is on a NL team they won't contribute to our stats - could you e-mail them and find out?

2) If someone gets traded to an NL team and then signs as a free agent at an AL Team is he still an eligible keeper/

Expand Roster for 2008?

Is there any desire in the league to expand the rosters? I feel like everyone here is astute enough to handle it, the question is whether it would make the league better. With only 6 teams there are a lot of good players on each team. Forcing each team to go "deeper" into the player pool would definitely add a larger element of manager/scouting. We have deep benches as it is, so what if we converted some of those bench spots to starting spots?

Additional positions to consider:
4th or 5th outfielders, middle infield (2b/ss), corner infield (1b/3b), additional pitchers, second catcher.

We would have to increase the number of moves significantly, but I would still be in favor of having a limit. My biggest complaint right now is people having "dead" spots on their roster. With a big bench and limited moves, you end up carrying players that you don't really want or need. The alternative would be to decrease the size of the bench but keep the same starting roster spots.

I'm not married to the idea... just thinking of improvements. Thoughts?

There's Always Next Year.

I'm giving up on this season everybody so I will be trading players off for keeper talent. First I have a couple questions about the keeper rules:

1) What happens if after a trade you happen to have two players who were drafted in the same round and you want to keep both of them? If they were both drafted in say round 5 would you lose that pick and round 6 too?

2) What happens when you keep a player who you picked up on waivers? Do you only lose your last pick?

Anyway, Lee, Mussina, Santana, Colon, Damon, Ellis, Varitek, and Inge are all available for not much. Pretty much everyone else other than Guillen, Kazmir and Matsuzaka are available at a higher price, and those other 3 aren't out of the question if it's a good enough offer. I'm looking for good keepers who were drafted late.

Quick pitch for just going with the three years

I'd suggest that we go with every player only being kept for 3 years, vs having the 4 years for the later rounds.

I think it's reasonably unlikely that anyone would really "dominate" the league with 5 keepers, but the most likely scenario for domination is a team with stud players that they managed to pick up in the later rounds - if Andrew Miller, Phillip Hughes, and Billy Butler end up as Johan Santana, C.C. Sabathia, and A-Rod over the next year or so, then Andrew will be set, not just because he took great keepers, but because he still has his earliest picks in the draft intact. Letting him keep those players for 4 years vs 3 seems more likely to me to put us in a position where one team has a huge advantage.

I'd suggest three years being the max for everyone.

Projected Standings - Second Half

The second half of the season (well 46.3%) will bring fame, fortune, and glory to one owner and shame, misery, and debt to 5 others. The tension is at an all time high. Your fate is revealed...

Last time I ran these projections, Bill was on top of a tight race with 40 points. The projections were not kind to Caleb, showing a huge drop off in HR and RBI rates. This time around a few roster changes and a couple of injuries have shaken up the projected order of finish slightly.

Right now, the biggest injury concerns at the top of the projections are between two righties with shoulder issues. The status of AJ Burnett and Curt Schilling are very much up in the air right now and their respective returns to action could be pivotal in a tight race.

Pete Rose and Marginally Effective are given an outside shot at the title, while Warning Track Power plummets mightily. Pete Rose will need a big second half from Richie Sexson. Chone Figgins has been a pleasant surprise after starting out slow coming back from injury. Warning Track can take solace in the fact that a large part of his projected decline has to do with Sheffield who, with one more homerun, will double his projected HR total for the year. My concern would be more with A-Rod who may or may not remain motivated in playing baseball once the Yankees are realistically eliminated from the playoffs (especially if his hammy is still tight). Marginally Effective has dug a bit of a hole for himself and will need to make some upgrades to his pitching staff thought trades or savvy free agent signings. He may have already found that guy in Andrew Miller who undoubtedly get more production than his 44 projected innings allow for. Will it be enough?

As is, the projections are run with Burnett and Schilling on the active roster. Both could be back late July/early August... or not at all.

Projected Standings

	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP	Total
Licker Store AllStars	6.0	6.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	3.0	5.0	3.0	5.0	42.0
Berkeley Hoboes	2.0	5.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	6.0	4.0	4.0	6.0	6.0	42.0
Marginally Effective	4.0	4.0	5.0	2.0	4.0	3.0	6.0	2.0	5.0	3.0	38.0
The Pete Rose Legacy	1.0	1.0	1.0	6.0	5.0	4.0	5.0	3.0	4.0	4.0	34.0
Warning Track Power	3.0	2.0	2.0	3.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	2.0	28.0
YOOOUUUK!	5.0	3.0	3.0	1.0	3.0	2.0	1.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	26.0

Projected +/- by category

	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP	Total
Licker Store AllStars	1.0	1.0	1.0	-1.0	-1.0	0.0	-2.0	-1.0	-2.0	-1.0	-5.0
Berkeley Hoboes	1.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	8.0
Marginally Effective	1.0	2.0	3.0	-1.0	0.0	-1.0	2.0	0.0	2.0	1.0	9.0
The Pete Rose Legacy	-1.0	0.0	-3.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	-1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-3.0
Warning Track Power	-3.0	-4.0	-4.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-1.0	-11.0
YOOOUUUK!	1.0	-1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	2.0

Official Rules

As we move through the all-star break and start to think about, this year, next year, keepers, prospects etc - can we get clarification on all the various rules? I believe some things were left up in the air. Things I'm thinking about are

1) trading deadline
2) what happens to an AL player traded to the NL, this year and beyond
3) Prospect pick - can you re-iterate those rules, and what was the logic for requiring them to have to be on an ML roster for 2 months?
4) Is the keeper rule a maximum of 3 years

etc.

Durham Plays for Keeps
Mid-Season Report

The mid summer classic is upon us, giving a few days of fantasy rest. Take a shower. Go for a walk. Floss.

Here is my arbitrary mid-season all-value fantasy team. No one picked lower than the 10th round is on the team and I’m pretty sure it would be competitive, but I’d have to run the numbers. B.J. Upton is on the list but injured. If you want, you can sub in Polanco (14th round, 82 overall). Who did I snub? Who is in there that shouldn’t be? Take your best shot.

2007 Mid-Season All-Value Team (round.overall)

C - Jorge Posada (25.146)
1b – Kevin Youkilis (10.57)
2b – B.J. Upton (18.107)
SS – Orlando Cabrera (25.150)
3B – Mike Lowell (ufa)
OF – Magglio Ordonez (14.84)
OF – Torii Hunter (14.80)
OF – Curtis Granderson (13.77)
DH – Alex Rios (11.63)

SP – Mark Buehrle (13.75)
SP – Eric Bedard (11.66)
RP – J.J. Putz (10.55)
RP – Hideki Okajima (ufa)
P – Joe Blanton (ufa)
P – James Shields (21.121)
P – Kelvim Escobar (13.74)

*Blog interruption: Did anyone see saw that catch by Granderson on Willy Mo? Holy shit. That guy is quickly becoming one my favorite outfielders in the AL. Also, I really hate Sheffield. Never met or will meet the guy but I’m 99.9% positive he is a complete asshole. I’d bet Okajima’s good karma necklace on it.

Given that the all-star game is coming up, we can take a look at how well the selections translate to our fantasy league. The most obvious flaws are players picked because to represent their woeful team. Michael Young, Gil Meche, and Bobby Jenks fit this category. The rest of the selections mostly deserved it.

Licker Store All Stars (5)
Victor Martinez (C), Justin Morneau (1B), Brian Roberts (2B), Grady Sizemore (OF), J.J. Putz (RP)

If I had to pick my top 5 players on my team, this would be the group. Hands down. Eric Bedard is the most obvious snub (has a chance at 300 Ks this season) but overall I can’t be disappointed with the first half. Delmon Young and Felix Hernandez looked like locks for keepers at the beginning of the year, but injuries and inconsistent play have kept them at a distance behind the all-star group.

Key waiver wire additions: Gary Mathews Jr., Joe Blanton

Warning Track Power (8)
Placido Polanco (2B), Alex Rodriquez (3B), Michael Young (SS), Alex Rios (OF), Josh Beckett (SP), Gil Meche (SP), Justin Verlander (SP), Hideki Okajima (RP)

The number of all-stars is a bit more impressive than the actual group but you can’t find too many flaws up and down the Warning Track’s lineup. A-Rod has been the first half MVP and Beckett’s 12 wins has him front running for the Cy Young. Meche and Young were throw-ins but picking up Pedrioa and Polanco off the waiver wire was smart. Both no-hitters thrown this year (Buherle and Verlander) are in Warning Track’s rotation. As much as I hate him, Sheffield is deserving of an all-star spot too.

Key waiver wire additions: Polanco, Dustin Pedrioa

The Pete Rose Legacy (8)
Ivan Rodriguez (C), Derek Jeter (SS), Mike Lowell (3B), Ichiro Suzuki (OF), Magglio Ordonez (OF), Bobby Jenks (RP), Francisco Rodriguez (RP), Johan Santana (SP)

With the exception of Jenks, Pete Rose Legacy has a well deserving group of players going to the all-star game. Johan may not be pitching at sub 2 ERA levels, but 10 wins and 125 Ks is nothing to be unhappy about. Lots of good wavier wire additions has kept Pete Rose in the race. Mike Lowell has provided a huge lift in the power numbers but will need to keep producing if Pete Rose has a shot at contending in the second half. A lot of points can be gained in the HR and R category, but it looks like another trade will have to be in order. Trade acquisistions Jermaine Dye and Julio Lugo have been busts and won’t add the power and run support Pete Rose had hoped for.

Key waiver wire additions: Lowell, Sammy Sosa, Jeremy Guthrie

Berkeley Hoboes (5)
Jorge Posada (C), Carl Crawford (OF), Manny Ramirez (OF), Dan Haren (SP), C.C. Sabathia (SP)

The Hoboes season has been marred by some first half disappointments and injuries. Wells and Konerko look as it they are turning things around and starting pitching has held strong all season. If someone can emerge as a consistent starter at third, there may be enough kick left to contend late in the season.

Key waiver wire additions: Al Reyes

Marginally Effective (5)
David Ortiz (1B), Vladimir Guerrero (OF), Torii Hunter (OF), John Lackey (SP), Jonathan Papelbon (RP)

Looking at the group of all-stars here you might expect more from the 5th place team. It’s hard to say what has gone wrong here, but perhaps asking why Torii Hunter has sat on Andrew’s bench for 81 at bats this season is a good place to begin. To be fair, injuries have played no small part in the lack-luster 1st half performance but something feels amiss here.

Key waiver wire additions: Akinori Iwamura

Yooouuuk!!! (1)
Carlos Guillen (SS)

Not much to say about this team other than there’s always next year. The one all-star representative was acquired through a trade. Ironically, Kevin Youkilis is the best player on this team and good value for a keeper if he keeps his 3B eligibility. Trading Rivera for Guillen has worked out so far (.386, 5 Hr). A strong draft with the right keepers will put Youk right back on track for 2008.

Key waiver wire additions: Chad Gaudin

Look out Youuuuk

* Alex Rodriguez left Tuesday's game after six innings with a strained hamstring thanks to a collision at first base with Justin Morneau, but returned to the lineup Wednesday by going 0-for-4 as the Yankees' designated hitter. After extending his slump to 0-for-19 with eight strikeouts in a loss to the Twins, Rodriguez said that he may sit out the All-Star game and also indicated that he could be forced out of the lineup before then.

Caleb's team just got 80% worse.

Projected Standings

In preparation for the 14 + hours of planes, trains, and automobiles (Itinerary: Bus to Subway, Subway to Plane, Plane to Car, Car to Ferry) I thought I would waste my last day of work projecting the standings for the rest of the season. I took everyone's current accumulated statistics and added 57% (remaining portion of the season) of the Baseball Prospectus projections.

BP subscribers can click here for the article that inspired all of this.

A couple of things immediately jump out in these projections. The inability to predict injuries and the dynamic nature of your lineup are not accounted for. People don't play same pitchers each week and who knows who may end up on the DL. In any event, I think the BP projections are probably the most respected out there and this seems the best way to get an estimate of the final standings. Trades, injuries, free agent pickups not withstanding.

Projected Standings
	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP	Total
Berkeley Hoboes	2.0	3.0	4.0	4.0	1.0	6.0	4.0	4.0	6.0	6.0	40.0
The Pete Rose Legacy	1.0	1.0	1.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	6.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	39.0
Licker Store AllStars	6.0	6.0	6.0	6.0	2.0	1.0	3.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	38.0
Marginally Effective	3.0	5.0	5.0	3.0	3.0	2.0	5.0	3.0	4.0	4.0	37.0
Warning Track Power	4.0	4.0	3.0	2.0	6.0	4.0	2.0	1.0	2.0	2.0	30.0
YOOOUUUK!	5.0	2.0	2.0	1.0	4.0	3.0	1.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	26.0
Projected +/-
Berkeley Hoboes	1.0	2.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	-0.5	0.0	0.0	6.0
Marginally Effective	0.0	2.0	2.0	0.0	-1.0	-2.0	1.5	1.0	0.0	2.0	5.5
YOOOUUUK!	1.0	-2.0	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.5	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	2.5
The Pete Rose Legacy	-1.0	-1.0	-3.0	0.0	0.0	2.5	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	-0.5
Licker Store AllStars	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	-0.5	0.0	-2.0	-4.0	1.0	-0.5	-3.0
Warning Track Power	-2.0	-2.0	-3.0	0.0	0.0	-1.0	0.0	0.0	-1.0	-1.5	-10.5

In these projections, Mr. Bill squeaks out the title with 40 points... A lot of regression towards the mean is going on here as the current 3 top teams all lose points while the bottom 3 teams all gain points. The biggest loser is Caleb who is projected to fall all the way down to 30 points. Caleb will need A-Rod and Sheffield to hit well above their projections to prevent this tumble (only 26 more HRs projected between the two).

Bill's offense on the other hand takes off as Konerko, Gordon, and Wells belt 50 homeruns. Beltre's numbers are very similar to Gordon's so either option should produce. On the mound, the pitching holds steady with no projected points drop in ERA or WHIP.

I'll redo these as the season progresses... Especially when key guys go down, players come back from the DL, or a trade is made.

Trash Talk Weekend

Looking forward to doing all of our trash talking IN PERSON this weekend, with the assumed exception of poor Luke, although maybe it's a good thing that he's not there. Luke, we'll have nothing but nice things to say...

Is my offense this bad?

I thought I'd throw out a correlary to Spencer's post about whether or not my pitching is this good. To start out, I never thought my staff could sustain a sub-3.00 ERA. That would mean I had all Cy Young candidates. But I do feel like my staff (especially in terms of WHIP, ERA, and wins) is the best. Of late Schilling has fallen off (and now he's going back to Boston for an MRI on his shoulder, which is bad news for the Sox. Fortunately if he's out they have Lester ready to step in) and I don't expect Haren to keep his sub-2.00 ERA going, but Sabathia and Schilling are both actually underperforming their expected ERA's.

Now to the title of the post. Is my offense really this bad? After a horrid start the team has slowly worked itself into contention in HR and to a lesser extent average and RBI. And of course, by contention I mean I'm within striking distance of second to last place. On the whole my team is in last place in four of the five offensive categories. Konerko and Wells have significantly underperformed, but other than that I don't have any absoulte dogs on my team. I think part of the problem is that I don't have a slugger to fill my utility spot - which is a pretty big disadvantage when 1/3 of the teams in the league sport David Ortiz and Travis Hafner there.

2 things

1) Chone Figgins is a god

2) Rocco Baldelli re-aggravated his left hamstring. That guy is hilarious.

More on Cano/Baldelli for Dye/Iguchi

In 3 weeks and 1 day since this trade took place, Baldelli has done nothing obviously, Cano has been a starter for two weeks, Spencer has started Dye every week, and started Iguchi for the first week and for this current week. Here are the numbers each player put up only during the weeks that he was started, including yesterday.

Dye (3 weeks and 1 day): 14/67, 5 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 2 SB, .209 AVG.

Iguchi (1 week and 1 day): 4/26, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB, .154 AVG.

Total (4 player*weeks and 2 player*days): 18/93, 7 R, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 2 SB, .194 AVG.

Cano (2 player*weeks): 16/53, 8 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, .302 AVG.


So far so good. We'll see what happens in the rest of the season and with the other trades I've made recently. Will it be enough to bring me out of last place? I highly doubt it.

The team log feature is where I got those numbers, it is really handy.

Question of the day: Is Bill's pitching this good?

I've been waiting for a while now for Bill's pitching to fall off the wagon, but yesterday his team posted 2 starts, 2 complete game wins, 12ks, a WHIP of 0.62 and an ERA of 0.50.

For the year, Bill is winning in every pitching category except for saves. Other than his lead in K's which is not that large (especially when factoring in innings pitched), he is actually crushing the competition. He has 35 wins (6 ahead of 2nd), a 3.07 ERA (0.47 better than 2nd) and an absurd 1.14 WHIP (0.08 ahead of 2nd).

After not following baseball super closely other than the sox for the past few years, I wasn't blown away by Bill's staff when first looking at it: Sabathia? Escobar? Haren?

But what's scary is that these pitchers still have some upside - Sabathia's ERA and WHIP are actually worse so far than last year's - only Haren has really been pitching much better than his prior stats would indicate, and it's difficult to write his performance off as just luck.

So for the nay-sayers out there - I'm thinking Mark might have something to say here - is Bill's pitching this good?

Interesting tidbit...

Since May 3rd, Dustin Pedroia has swung at 139 pitches and missed 4 of them.

Seriously

My team is supposed to be Consistently Erratic, not Consistently hitting 240 and sucking at pitching. It was fun while it lasted, but I don't see my team climbing out of this 4th place hole. At least I'm still doing better than les frères Murphy.

Pretty pictures

I've put together a few charts based on the daily data Yahoo has, but doesn't archive. I didn't have time to put together a chart for everything, but here are some charts and thoughts for average, runs, ERA, and WHIP. Just a quick caveat, although this is presented as a line graph, however adjacent data points aren't necessarily consecutive days because of missing data (it wasn't possible to create an X-Y scatter plot using a pivot chart).














Average - it is pretty clear it is still early enough that average can still change quickly. In the middle of May there was a .030 difference in batting average between the leader (Andrew) and the last place team (me). As recently as the 23rd this was still the case; however over the next week Andrew's team entered a prolonged slump (which unsurprisingly finally led to the end of his reign at the top) and my team gained 0.014 in average. As of right now average is the most competitive category and seems to be the most dynamic - two or three really good days (especially if they are coupled with poor showings from the other teams) could propel any team to the top.

















Runs - Unlike the batting average standings, the standings for runs have spread out over the last 2.5 weeks. It just isn't possible for a team to score 30 runs in a couple of days, maybe that distance can be made up in a week or two, but the runs standings just aren't as dynamic as the standings for batting average.

Initially, Luke, Caleb, Mark, and Andrew were all clustered at first, however Mark has started to pull away from the pack. Spencer and I continue to fight for 2nd to last place in runs and are falling increasingly behind the 4th place team.

As far as the implications of these graphs, my interpretation is that if you're looking to make up ground, trading for batting average is probably the easiest way to catch up. Unlike counting stats, your opponents can lose ground without your team having to accomplish anything. You would expect to see similar things happen for WHIP and ERA, however those rankings have been remarkably consistent and have not been as competitive as batting average. If I have time I'll post some graphs for the pitching stats tonight or tomorrow.

Rivera and Gagne are available for trade.

I'm giving up on saves.

All offers other than Nate Robertson will be seriously considered.

I love that

Youuuk is not even playing Cano this week.

P.S. I'm back in the fray, biatches!

How I hate Ozzie Guillen.

Beuhrle (who's been a very decent pick, remarkably) had a nice outing today, until he came back out for the 7th inning, and after throwing over 105 pitches, coughed up a couple of baserunners. Ozzie Guillen, the "smart-ball" guy himself, pulled Buehrle just a little too late and replaced him with Mike F'ing McDougal and his 5.50 ERA, who promptly allowed the two baserunners to come around on a deep triple. There goes the nice ERA, there goes my win. Ozzie Guillen is an ass.

Team stats for those who are interested...

For those of you who are frustrated by the inability to view standings from earlier in the season and track how your team is doing over a longer period of time I've been putting together an access database of the full standings page. Right now I only have data from May 15th on, so it isn't the most interesting thing to look at, but I'll try to keep up over the summer (and have conscripted Andrew to copy the data for me when I'm out in the field). If you're interested in taking a look I can send you the file; unfortunately there doesn't seem to be an easy way to post it here.

Another home run for Dye today

I'm psyched he's breaking out but GET HIM ON MY TEAM ALREADY. Jesus, this weekly crap is KILLING me.

Mark this day

Yes folks, it happened. The LickerStore AllStars got a win last night. After 14 consectuive days of drought, AJ Burnett pitches a complete game. Meanwhile, Mr. Bill's team gets 142 wins from his relievers.

Let's consider what happened between May 2nd and May 16th:

Eric Bedard
The stats speak for themselves: 3 starts, 2.25 era, 0.95 WHIP, 9.45 K/9, 0 Wins
Nate Robertson
Decided to spot start him here. Detroit is riding an 8 game winning streak and Robertson puts up a first class stinker against Seattle.
Joe Blanton
Gets two wins sitting on my bench. WTF. Didn't start him against Tampa Bay b/c was up against the Red Sox earlier in the week. Didn't start him against Cleveland because Cleveland has a good offense and I have 3 of their best hitters on my team. New Rule: Always start Blanton.
AJ Burnett
Admittedly, made a mistake by not starting him against Tampa on May 11. In his last three starts Burnett is 2-1 with 29 strikeouts. New Rule: Always start Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Pitches a no decision gem against Minnesota and then can't pull his head out of the sand to beat Kansas City. The goddamn Royals for fuck's sake. Before fantasy, I always used to root for the underdog teams. Now they just cause me great pain and mental anguish when my pitchers can't beat them.
King Felix
Is there any real reason to read injury reports? I put Hernandez into my lineup Sunday, April 29th after reports say he'll pitch Friday against the Yankees. On Wednesday, May 2nd, I find out that Hernandez won't pitch Friday after all. Ok, fine. Better safe than sorry. Friday rolls around and the Mariners say they'll move his start back 6 days... Ok, do the math, May 5th plus 6 days equals.... May 15th apparently. In a day-to-day league this wouldn't be a problem but don't they consider all the people out there in a weekly league? For crying out loud, I'm 75 innings behind pace!!!

Well that didn't take long...

Baldelli hurt his hamstring in the first inning tonight. Luke, it looks like this just isn't your year.

From the source....

I love that a trade between the league's two bottom-dwellers generates this much analysis - what will happen when we see a real blockbuster between Caleb and Andrew?

For what it's worth, I think the trade is a slightly better deal for Yoouuuk if you look at in a vacuum, but actually does a nice job of filling both team's needs.

For me, I obviously am in desperate need of power, and while I'd be surprised if Dye comes close to last year, I'm hoping for 2005 production as long as he stays healthy, which will still be a big lift. Cano (assuming he bounced back) would be useful, but not as useful as the HRs and RBIs I could potentially get from Dye.

For Youuuk, he gets a potential keeper (I think I took Cano in the 7th) at a relatively shallow spot. I think Cano's upside is to be something like Derek Jeter - a high average hitter in a great lineup that therefore gets a ton of RBI's and runs, and the occasional stolen base. On the other hand, he's young, got very lucky last season with his average, and as others have pointed out is very impatient at the plate.

Baldelli's value is really hurt by the weekly format in my opinion. The guy gets more rest because he's been injury plagued, plus, he's injury plagued. Baldelli's got some decent all-around value (some SBs, decent average, decent power) but with my outfield having Magglio, Ichiro, and Dye plus Sosa and hopefully Adam Lind coming on, I didn't see a lot of value for him, particularly with him hitting 0.34 in march so far.

Iguchi is more or less useless I guess.

So Youuuk gets a good potential keeper (especially valuable for him if he gives up on the year), I get the power I really needed and give up a guy I probably wasn't going to play anyway.

Some thoughts on Cano

At first I thought that Spencer was making a mistake giving up Cano and Baldelli, two solid young players with keeper possibilities. Of all the teams, he had one that could sacrifice speed from a middle infielder for batting average (which is lacking from speedsters like Podsednik or Figgins) and a bunch of runs from the Yankees strong lineup. However, looking more closely at Robinson Cano's stats, this season is looking like an absolute disaster for him unless he quickly develops more plate discipline. Unlike Dye (or Baldelli for that matter), Cano has a perfectly reasonable BABIP of 0.290. His success in 2005 (0.320) and especially 2006 (0.363) was driven by BABIP. On top of the BABIP drop, he also isn't putting the ball in play nearly as often. His strike out rate is up from 10% and 12% all the way up to 20%. A high strikeout rate isn't necessarily bad, lots of excellent power hitters have high rates, but for someone who doesn't hit a lot of homeruns and relies on putting the ball in play and legging out a single that kind of spike in K rate cripples their value.

The reason his numbers are down is pretty clear - he's chasing an awful lot of bad pitches. According to the Stats Inc. data available on ESPN, he's chasing around 50% of pitches inside (58% up and in, 53% in, 41% down and in). He's also chasing 76% of the pitches that are high and over the middle, which is the highest percentage I could find doing a quick search for some notorious hackers.

If Cano can stop chasing pitches and Baldelli can stay healthy, Youk! might come out ahead on this one. But Dye seems like a much safer better bounce-back possibility to me, even if he isn't worth a keeper slot. He's also the best player in the trade, and Youk! doesn't have a clear starting spot for Baldelli (or Cano for that matter if Jose Lopez can match his 2006 season), so Spencer's everyday line-up gets a much needed power and RBI boost.

Transaction Analysis - Jermaine Dye

Traded: Robinson Cano and Rocco Baldelli (Pete Rose) for Jermaine Dye and Tadihito Iguchi (Youke).

The first trade of the league has taken place featuring two under performing players. Jermaine Dye provides some much needed power to Pete Rose Legacy while Robinson Cano is a potential keeper for Yoouke at a thin position.

First I will look at Dye with analysis on Cano later.

The concerning thing about Dye is that he has essential played 2.5 consecutive months of sub-par and awful baseball. Last September, Dye hit .256/5/13 and so far this season is hitting .203/6/17. Another .315/44/120 season is not going to happen. Last season (up until September) Dye was hitting one home run every 11.5 at bats - a torrid pace. Since then, Dye is hitting one home run every 19.3 at bats, which is much more in line with his career numbers (1 per 20.7 AB). While this is a large drop from last year, it doesn't surprise me that Dye has regressed to his mean - most players with huge seasons do. He is striking out more than last year, but not outside his range (at his current pace he will come close or just pass his career high). Interestingly, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is about the best it's ever been, which is usually indicative of improved hitting. On the upside, the balls he does hit in play are only dropping for hits at a .221 rate (league average ~ .290), which will undoubtedly improve considering his low ground ball percentage.

What this all tells me is that Dye is up there trying to hit 50 homeruns while he is really only a 30 HR guy. Without Thome in the lineup, Dye is the only true HR threat and probably puts pressure on himself to hit for power. All this has done is decimate his average while not producing any more home runs for himself. Assuming one home run per 19 at bats and 530 at bats, Dye will hit 27-28 home runs in 2007. He's already hit 6, leaving 21-22 more for Spencer. To improve his average to a modest .265 by the end of the season, Dye will have to hit .280 from today on. I think this is a reachable goal, and one I'm assuming he'll based on his increased value over the last 3 seasons.

For RBI's and runs, the decreased average and on base percentage has hurt. Dye was driving in 0.2 batters per plate appearance in 2006 - a rate that rewarded him with 120 RBIs. In 2007, Dye's RBI rate has dropped to 0.12. Assuming that Dye improves his average, his RBI rate should climb closer to 0.17. Currently, runners are on base 55.6% of the time Dye is up to bat. Even if this drops to 50 percent when Thome returns, Dye will still have roughly the same number of opportunities as he's had in the past. Translated over 463 more plate appearances, this should give Dye 78 more RBI (95 for the year).

In summary, Dye gets Spencer
.280/21/78

Not too shabby. Considering the lack of HR and RBI producers on his team, I think this acquisition will be beneficial. Of course, this all assumes Dye breaks out of his slump.

Thoughts on Cano to follow...

I love the updates Yahoo gives you on your injured players - Scott Podsednik ran an obstacle course in the outfield yesterday....and is still out for another month.

I want to hear what he ate for breakfast and what he is wearing too.

not related to fantasy baseball...

Just a really great headline.

ICHIRO!!!

Ichiro stole a base last night!! That means 2 things:

1) He remembered that in baseball there is the possibility to advance on the basepaths without the batter hitting the ball

and

2) He got on base.

I think we can all agree these are TREMENDOUS signs of progress. The rise to the top starts now!

Why Roy Halladay sucks...

APPENDICITIS? APPENDIFUCKINGCITIS?

Did he have appendicitis last week, when he gave up 9 runs to Texas, or just last night?

I really hate the Blue Jays.

April Showers

Is anyone as annoyed as I am that Bill's relievers have chalked up 6 wins for him thus far. A guy blowing a save to end up with the win is like having unprotected sex and ending up being the father of Anna Nicole's daughter/estate.

An early favorite for the "most optimism for a lost cause" award is The Pete Rose Legacy. It's kinda cute though - in a Charlie Brown Christmas kind of way. Ty Wiggington never had a bigger fan. Although, I think Wiggs may be a little Jealous now that Mike Lowell is stealing the spotlight. Unfortuantely, there is only so much love for waiver wire junkies to go around.

It's funny how year in and year out you inevitably see the same guys flip-flopping between the waiver wire and a roster spot. Like weed they're good in moderation, but not good to build a life around. Today Melvin Mora is my drug of choice. I remember going to a Red Sox/Orioles game in Camden yard back in y2k with the crowd chanting, "MELVIN, MORA... MELVIN, MORA" in a playful yet slightly mocking sort of way. Always liked the guy since then - don't know why. (On a side note, Ricky Henderson led off for the Sox that night, went 0-4 with about 4 strikeouts but did draw a walk and stole 2nd base. The next O's/Sox game I saw featured a Carlos Baerga brawl in fenway - still possibly the most memorable fenway moment of my life.)

I wonder if it ever occurred to Luke that drafting Mariano Rivera might now work when you fill your team with Red Sox players. Ceaser's Palace odds that Luke has tried mixing ammonia with bleach- 3:1

Trivia question of the week - who was the last DH/Left fielder tandem to play for the Red Sox in the post season NOT featuring Big Papi and/or Manny Ramirez. Bonus points for nicknames.