Andrew:
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Oh no. Oh Lord no. He wasn't even IN the rotation by the end of the season!
2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
COUNT IT! In spite of a sagging average and abysmal BABIP, Pujols did manage to slam 40 HR.
3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
This was also terrible. By player rater, Phil Hughes was 51st.
4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Saunders managed exactly 0 HR and SB, so I was only one digit off! He did not even manage 40 PA.
5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Near miss. Gregerson finished as the 6th closer, but was only 0.07 player rater points behind number 5, Scott Tolleson.
1/5, plus close miss.
Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Britton was just as amazing as Bill expected.
2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison was a tire fire.
3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
He had some ugly rate stats, the WHIP of 1.37 in particular, but Boxberger notched 41 saves.
4. Chris Sale >227 K
Sale led the AL with 274Ks and was outstanding.
5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
This was not meant to be.
3/5, but Bill's misses were pretty spectacular. Not Saunders spectacular, but still spectacular.
Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia didn't even finish as the top 2B on his team, as he was narrowly edged out by BROCK HOLT! Injuries were the big issue here, as Pedroia, when healthy, did manage to have his highest HR/FB since 2011 and ISO since 2012.
2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Springer, like Pedroia, was undone by injuries. He did manage to go 16HR/16SB in 450 plate appearances, but even scaling up, Springer was short of Caleb's target of 55.
3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene imploded fairly spectacularly as the season progressed and finished 148th in the player rater. The best <$3 pitcher probably had to go to Carlos Rodon. That said, on the whole, the drafted pitchers under $3 were really bad and were bested by many waiver players.
4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Leonys Martin killed this one so hard, but even Kole Calhoun couldn't crack the top 10. He finished at 16th.
5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Napoli did manage 18 HR in 460 PA, but a terrible average and lackluster counting stats pulled his overall player rater line down to 0.41.
0/5, and Caleb didn't even come close on any of them.
Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke's team finished 2nd to last in wins, showing that predicting wins is a fools errand.
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson blew Luke's bold prediction clear out of the water, hitting 0.297, 41HR, and 245 R + RBI.
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
Only two players on Luke's drafted team managed to go 10/10-- Brantley and Gardner. His other possibilities fell short to due injuries, ineffectiveness, or both (see Shane Victorino)
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley was dinged up all year and finished short of his 2014 stats in every category.
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
Adam LaRoche, before his whole "Let's have my 14 year old spend his entire fucking life in the clubhouse instead of school" plan blew up his 2016 season, blew up his own 2015 season with a preposterously bad 0.207/0.293/0.340 line and only 12 HR. He didn't even manage 34 extra base hits.
1/5, but BOY did Luke nail that one.
So, overall, we hit on 25% of our predictions. Seems about right, but man oh man we all had spectacular failures in there. Unsurprisingly, the league champion had the best predictions. Who is ready to go out there and make theirs for this season?
Friday, April 1, 2016
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
ESPN Projected Standings
Here are the ESPN projected standings that I quickly threw together. No analysis yet, but Caleb is clearly the frontrunner after the draft. With that set of keepers, there is no surprise there. From 2nd to 6th there is a big clump of teams, followed by Andrew and his incredible 6 points from hitters (2nd to last in AVG). And Spencer is last, now and ever shall be.
| Pitching | Hitting | Total | |
| Caleb | 24 | 35 | 59 |
| Kate | 20 | 30 | 50 |
| Mark | 28 | 21 | 49 |
| Luke | 18.5 | 29 | 47.5 |
| Taylor | 20 | 26 | 46 |
| Bill | 28 | 17 | 45 |
| Andrew | 31.5 | 6 | 37.5 |
| Spencer | 10 | 16 | 26 |
Sunday, October 4, 2015
Congrats to Bill
Two in a row! Only one league member has ever won two in a row, putting you in elite company. Pretty solid second half dominance after heavy turnover via trades in July and August. Now you get to go for the threepeat. Nice job.
Monday, September 28, 2015
How Andrew can win
It isn't likely, but Andrew does still have a path to victory, in part because we're going head to head in several categories, As of Monday morning, by lead is 7.5 points, but if everything breaks just right for Andrew, I see up to 10.5 net points for him (factoring in losses from me, and gains for him).
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
I am up 23 runs on Andrew, so that should be out of reach, especially with teams starting to sit players this last week of the season. Also, Andrew is leading in HR, so he has no points to gain there, and I have a 12 HR lead on Caleb which should remain safe. Finally, RBI. Andrew is 18 RBI behind me. All season long, there has been one week where he had 19 RBI more than me - with fewer starts likely, I think that is out of reach as well.
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
| Bill | Andrew | |
| R | 23 | -23 |
| HR | 12 | NA |
| RBI | 18 | -18 |
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| AVG | 0.0012 | 0.0024 |
| WHIP | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| ERA | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| K | 112 | 8 |
| SV | 8 | T |
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| SB | 1, 3 | 2, 3 |
| W | T, 2 | T |
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
Saturday, September 5, 2015
Monday, June 8, 2015
I think I made a huge mistake
I just traded Carlos Correa for Steven Souza. Now I see articles like this one saying that Correa is going to hit 0.260, with 7 hr and 15 sb to go with 70 r+rbi. According to Bill, Eric Karabell just pegged him as the #6 SS in MIXED leagues.
So, wise and powerful members of Durham WHAT, did I make a huge mistake by trading Correa so quickly?
So, wise and powerful members of Durham WHAT, did I make a huge mistake by trading Correa so quickly?
Monday, May 4, 2015
One Month In: Bold Prediction Update
We're about a month into the season now (ESPN says 11.2% of the season) and some clear trends are emerging. My pitching stinks worse than a tire fire at a waste water treatment plant. The Red Sox starters are almost as bad as mine. Taylor already has more saves than ESPN predicted for him for the entire year. Given we're a month in, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at how everyone's bold predictions are doing.
Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Setting aside a couple of RP eligible pitchers who are really starters (Nick Martinez) or non-closing RP (Will Harris, Dellin Betances), Britton still is sitting at #10 overall. He's been quite good (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and his K rate has been well above the threshold I set (12.65 K/9), but he doesn't have that many saves (5, tied for 8th) and he hasn't vultured any wins, so he isn't doing great on the player rater. Across the board, Britton is pitching better than 2014, with a higher K/9, lower BB/9, and a similar ground ball rate (75%).
0/1, but promising.
2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison's ERA is 7.47, and his FIP is nearly as bad at 5.17. His strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.61, a massive drop from the 8.97 from 2014. Oh, and he's SP #80. Ugly across the board.
0/2, and not looking good.
3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
Boxberger has been great i the closer role for TB, putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while striking out a ton of batters (13.94 K/9). Amazingly, that's actually a slight dip from last year. Boxberger is on pace for 39 saves and 104 Ks, so he's on pace to win this prediction. However, Jake McGee is wrapping up a rehab assignment and could slide back into the closer job, putting 30 saves out of reach.
1/3, at least for now.
4. Chris Sale >227 K
Chris Sale has been another disappointment, with a rough ERA that ballooned following a real blow up start (8 ER) last week. His K rate (8.18 K/9) is a bit below career norms and he's only on pace for 162 IP. He'll need to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch a good bit better for this to come true.
1/4
5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
Hnaley hasn't had 200 R+RBI since his heyday with the (then) Florida Marlins. In his first month with the Red Sox, Hanley is making this prediction look not particularly bold, having already acumulated 39 R+RBI, putting his season pace at 253. He probably won't hit 65 HR, but he's been a big bat in the Red Sox lineup thus far, and has even gotten unlucky on a handful of balls he crushed that were either right at an outfielder or didn't carry because of poor conditions.
Bill's exceedingly early total: 2/5
Andrew
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Pomeranz has put up solid peripherals (8.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9), but he's 5th on the A's list of SP, behind Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, and Chavez. Kazmir, in particular, has been great and if he can stay healthy, looks like a good bet to lead the A's staff.
0/1
2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
Pujols' numbers so far this season look closer to his disappointing 2013, than his slight bounceback 2014 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 105. At four HR, he's on pace for 26, but he's actually been a below average hitter so far this year (95 wRC+, with 100 being average).
0/2
3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
Andrew was banking on Hughes essentially repeating his out of nowhere 2014. Hughes has pretty much been the same pitcher this year as last, but had a few more balls leave the park, leading to a 4.55 ERA. He's at SP #56 right now, so he has a ways to go to meet this prediction.
0/3
4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Andrew was counting on Saunders making a quick recovery from knee surgery and thriving in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Saunders hasn't exactly hit the ground running in hit return, hitting an empty .222 in 26 at bats, with no home runs, stolen bases, or even attempts. Although he's expected to have a lot more playing time moving forward, Saunders isn't on pace for 40 hits, let alone 40 HR+SB.
0/4
5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Gregerson has been quite good for Andrew, and comes in at RP #6 (closer #5). There are some warning signs though - Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped again in 2015, to 6.92 K/9, the lowest since 2011. Also, his value is mostly from two vultured wins.
Andrew's total: 1/5, for now.
Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia is currently the #5 2B, with solid all around contributions, except in SB where he hasn't stolen a base yet and only has a single attempt. Pedroia is behind two big surprises at 2B: Devon Travis and Marcus Semien, so if they fall off, he could quickly move up the rankings.
0/1
2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Despite a .208 average, Springer is on pace to easily surpass 55 HR and SB, thanks to already having 4 HR and 9 SB. In fact, he is on pace for more than 55 SB alone (59). If he can stay healthy, this could be an easy win.
1/2
3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 record and a 0.39 WHIP, before getting absolutely rocked in his next to starts. Bauer (#20) and Happ (#19) seem to be his main competition. Bauer was also off to a killer start, before not doing much in his last two starts. The darkhorse in the mix could be Aaron Sanchez. Although he's struggled as a starter, if he steps into the closer role for the Jays he could be spectacular. Right now this is a bit of a toss up.
1/3
4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Calhoun has been quite good this year, hitting over .300 but hasn't been running much (1 SB). Currently, ESPN ranks him as the #17 OF in our league, so he is within striking distance. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disaster, hitting just over .220 without any power or drawing any walks. He is still running (6 SB, on pace for 41), but that's about it.
1/4
5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Despite the convincing offseason narrative about Napoli's sleep apnea surgery (why do we always get fooled by these stories? I was high on Napoli too), Napoli has struggled this year. He's still seeing the ball fairly well (13.3 BB %), but his power just isn't there. A rough BABIP (0.190) hasn't helped either, but that doesn't explain the lack of power. With 2 HR, he's on pace for 13 and his PR is currently -0.71.
Caleb's total: 1/5
Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke is currently tied for 5th in wins, with my lovely (and lowly) pitching staff. He's currently 7 wins behind the leader, and most of his pitchers have been big disappointments. His ERA is still two runs better than mine.
0/1
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson has been an absolute beast this year, living up to his lofty price tag. Hitting 2nd in the lineup, he's making good use of his high average (.307) and OBP (.382). Donaldson is on pace for 131 R, 112 RBI, and 37 HR, despite some struggles from Bautista and Encarnacion lower in the lineup.
1/2
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
This one is a bit tricky to predict, since one stolen base or home run translates into a prediction of ~6 or 7 by the end of the season. Currently, Donaldson, Gardner, and de Aza are on pace for a 10/10 season. Brantley and Devon Travis just miss, while presumed 10/10 candidates Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are currently on the DL. This could change dramatically in a short period of time, but for now, it is looking like a miss (but maybe not by much).
1/3
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley missed some time in early April, but has been hitting well since then (.352). However, his numbers haven't translated into the elite fantasy performance from last year, thanks to a ton more doubles than HR (8:1), and a generally terrible Indians lineup. As it stands, Brantley is on pace to top his 2014 in only batting average. It's a small sample size, but that might not be a bad bet - Brantley is only striking out in 3.8% of his PA so far this season, compared to 8.3% last year, and his 1.2% swinging strike rate is the best in baseball.
2/4
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
LaRoche has hit 3 HR, good for a 22 HR pace. He hasn't hit much else, striking out in 34.5% of his PA this year, easily a career high. He doesn't have any clear trends in his splits, so he doesn't appear to just be a slow starter. As the weather warms up this summer his fly balls should carry better, but the weather doesn't help that much if you're a big lumbering first baseman who hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time.
Luke's final tally: 2/5
Bill
1. Zach Britton is a top 5 closer with a K/9 over 9.
Setting aside a couple of RP eligible pitchers who are really starters (Nick Martinez) or non-closing RP (Will Harris, Dellin Betances), Britton still is sitting at #10 overall. He's been quite good (1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and his K rate has been well above the threshold I set (12.65 K/9), but he doesn't have that many saves (5, tied for 8th) and he hasn't vultured any wins, so he isn't doing great on the player rater. Across the board, Britton is pitching better than 2014, with a higher K/9, lower BB/9, and a similar ground ball rate (75%).
0/1, but promising.
2. Drew Hutchison has 200 K, is top 20 SP
Hutchison's ERA is 7.47, and his FIP is nearly as bad at 5.17. His strikeout rate is a pedestrian 6.61, a massive drop from the 8.97 from 2014. Oh, and he's SP #80. Ugly across the board.
0/2, and not looking good.
3. Brad Boxberger has 30 saves or 110 K
Boxberger has been great i the closer role for TB, putting up a 1.74 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, while striking out a ton of batters (13.94 K/9). Amazingly, that's actually a slight dip from last year. Boxberger is on pace for 39 saves and 104 Ks, so he's on pace to win this prediction. However, Jake McGee is wrapping up a rehab assignment and could slide back into the closer job, putting 30 saves out of reach.
1/3, at least for now.
4. Chris Sale >227 K
Chris Sale has been another disappointment, with a rough ERA that ballooned following a real blow up start (8 ER) last week. His K rate (8.18 K/9) is a bit below career norms and he's only on pace for 162 IP. He'll need to stay healthy the rest of the season and pitch a good bit better for this to come true.
1/4
5. Hanley Ramirez has 200 R+RBI
Hnaley hasn't had 200 R+RBI since his heyday with the (then) Florida Marlins. In his first month with the Red Sox, Hanley is making this prediction look not particularly bold, having already acumulated 39 R+RBI, putting his season pace at 253. He probably won't hit 65 HR, but he's been a big bat in the Red Sox lineup thus far, and has even gotten unlucky on a handful of balls he crushed that were either right at an outfielder or didn't carry because of poor conditions.
Bill's exceedingly early total: 2/5
Andrew
1. Pomeranz is the A's #1 SP
Pomeranz has put up solid peripherals (8.23 K/9, 1.28 BB/9), but he's 5th on the A's list of SP, behind Gray, Kazmir, Hahn, and Chavez. Kazmir, in particular, has been great and if he can stay healthy, looks like a good bet to lead the A's staff.
0/1
2. Albert Pujols >33 HR
Pujols' numbers so far this season look closer to his disappointing 2013, than his slight bounceback 2014 when he hit 28 HR and drove in 105. At four HR, he's on pace for 26, but he's actually been a below average hitter so far this year (95 wRC+, with 100 being average).
0/2
3. Phil Hughes is a top 12 SP
Andrew was banking on Hughes essentially repeating his out of nowhere 2014. Hughes has pretty much been the same pitcher this year as last, but had a few more balls leave the park, leading to a 4.55 ERA. He's at SP #56 right now, so he has a ways to go to meet this prediction.
0/3
4. Michael Saunders has >40 HR+SB.
Andrew was counting on Saunders making a quick recovery from knee surgery and thriving in a loaded Blue Jays lineup. Saunders hasn't exactly hit the ground running in hit return, hitting an empty .222 in 26 at bats, with no home runs, stolen bases, or even attempts. Although he's expected to have a lot more playing time moving forward, Saunders isn't on pace for 40 hits, let alone 40 HR+SB.
0/4
5. Luke Gregerson is a top 5 closer
Gregerson has been quite good for Andrew, and comes in at RP #6 (closer #5). There are some warning signs though - Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped again in 2015, to 6.92 K/9, the lowest since 2011. Also, his value is mostly from two vultured wins.
Andrew's total: 1/5, for now.
Caleb
1. Dustin Pedroia is a top 3 2B
Pedroia is currently the #5 2B, with solid all around contributions, except in SB where he hasn't stolen a base yet and only has a single attempt. Pedroia is behind two big surprises at 2B: Devon Travis and Marcus Semien, so if they fall off, he could quickly move up the rankings.
0/1
2. George Springer >55 HR + SB
Despite a .208 average, Springer is on pace to easily surpass 55 HR and SB, thanks to already having 4 HR and 9 SB. In fact, he is on pace for more than 55 SB alone (59). If he can stay healthy, this could be an easy win.
1/2
3. Shane Greene is the best <$3 pitcher
Greene got off to an excellent start, with a 3-0 record and a 0.39 WHIP, before getting absolutely rocked in his next to starts. Bauer (#20) and Happ (#19) seem to be his main competition. Bauer was also off to a killer start, before not doing much in his last two starts. The darkhorse in the mix could be Aaron Sanchez. Although he's struggled as a starter, if he steps into the closer role for the Jays he could be spectacular. Right now this is a bit of a toss up.
1/3
4. Kole Calhoun and Leonys Martin are both top 10 OF
Calhoun has been quite good this year, hitting over .300 but hasn't been running much (1 SB). Currently, ESPN ranks him as the #17 OF in our league, so he is within striking distance. Leonys Martin, on the other hand, has been a bit of a disaster, hitting just over .220 without any power or drawing any walks. He is still running (6 SB, on pace for 41), but that's about it.
1/4
5. Napoli hits 25 HR and has a player rater >4.79
Despite the convincing offseason narrative about Napoli's sleep apnea surgery (why do we always get fooled by these stories? I was high on Napoli too), Napoli has struggled this year. He's still seeing the ball fairly well (13.3 BB %), but his power just isn't there. A rough BABIP (0.190) hasn't helped either, but that doesn't explain the lack of power. With 2 HR, he's on pace for 13 and his PR is currently -0.71.
Caleb's total: 1/5
Luke
1) Team finishes #1 in W
Luke is currently tied for 5th in wins, with my lovely (and lowly) pitching staff. He's currently 7 wins behind the leader, and most of his pitchers have been big disappointments. His ERA is still two runs better than mine.
0/1
2) Donaldson hits 0.280, 30HR, and 200 R +RBI
Donaldson has been an absolute beast this year, living up to his lofty price tag. Hitting 2nd in the lineup, he's making good use of his high average (.307) and OBP (.382). Donaldson is on pace for 131 R, 112 RBI, and 37 HR, despite some struggles from Bautista and Encarnacion lower in the lineup.
1/2
3) 6 players on starting roster go 10/10 HR/SB
This one is a bit tricky to predict, since one stolen base or home run translates into a prediction of ~6 or 7 by the end of the season. Currently, Donaldson, Gardner, and de Aza are on pace for a 10/10 season. Brantley and Devon Travis just miss, while presumed 10/10 candidates Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings are currently on the DL. This could change dramatically in a short period of time, but for now, it is looking like a miss (but maybe not by much).
1/3
4) Michael Brantley bests his 2014 line in at least one category
Brantley missed some time in early April, but has been hitting well since then (.352). However, his numbers haven't translated into the elite fantasy performance from last year, thanks to a ton more doubles than HR (8:1), and a generally terrible Indians lineup. As it stands, Brantley is on pace to top his 2014 in only batting average. It's a small sample size, but that might not be a bad bet - Brantley is only striking out in 3.8% of his PA so far this season, compared to 8.3% last year, and his 1.2% swinging strike rate is the best in baseball.
2/4
5) Adam LaRoche hits >34HR
LaRoche has hit 3 HR, good for a 22 HR pace. He hasn't hit much else, striking out in 34.5% of his PA this year, easily a career high. He doesn't have any clear trends in his splits, so he doesn't appear to just be a slow starter. As the weather warms up this summer his fly balls should carry better, but the weather doesn't help that much if you're a big lumbering first baseman who hits the ball on the ground 50% of the time.
Luke's final tally: 2/5
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