ESPN projected standings!

Here are the standings based on ESPN projections (no bench). If there was an obvious substitution to make, I made it (Andujar out, just because of the limited ABs, filled an open spot on someone's roster), but beyond that no optimization.

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	Tot	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Caleb	57	5	5	5	8	4	3	3	8	8	8
Taylor	52	4	2	6	3	8	8	8	1	5	7
Luke	52	6	8	7	6	5	4	3	6	3	4
Andrew	50.5	2.5	3	2	7	7	5	6	6	6	6
Spencer	46.5	2.5	4	4	5	3	6	7	3	7	5
Bill	42	7	7	8	2	6	1	4	4	1	2
Mark	34	8	6	3	1	1	2	3	7	2	1
Andy	30	1	1	1	4	2	7	5	2	4	3

	Tot	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	K	W	SV	ERA	WHIP
Caleb	57	860	266	810	146	0.262	979	54	84	3.60	1.18
Taylor	52	851	232	812	86	0.273	1236	72	26	3.92	1.20
Luke	52	864	277	859	98	0.267	987	54	63	3.97	1.24
Andrew	50.5	818	240	792	111	0.269	1038	65	63	3.91	1.21
Spencer	46.5	818	262	809	94	0.262	1097	70	43	3.90	1.21
Bill	42	914	276	873	76	0.269	935	56	61	4.17	1.28
Mark	34	926	268	800	64	0.261	966	54	66	3.99	1.36
Andy	30	783	225	762	93	0.261	1105	58	34	3.95	1.27

Projected Standings (Fangraphs ATC)

Team	Hitting	Pitching	Total
Luke	19	38	57
Andrew	32	24	56
Bill	31	20	51
Caleb	23	21	44
Mark	24	18.5	42.5
Spencer	22	20.5	42.5
Taylor	22	16.5	38.5
Andy	7	21.5	28.5

Luke is projected to win on the basis of extremely strong pitching (38/40 max) and just enough offense thanks to focusing stolen bases, average, and runs. In the end, his focus on Dee Gordon appears to have paid off, at least according to the projected standings. That comes at some cost, though, as he is projected to be last in home runs and second to last in RBI

Andrew is the mirror image, with a great all around offense, and enough in the pitching ratios and saves to be right there as well. An already thin rotation is without any kind of backup, now that Cotton is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery.

I have to hope that my young, high upside arms pan out - if they hit their projections my pitching is pretty weak. I got my targets, so I guess we'll see how my pitching model does this year. Loads of injury risks in that rotation as well.

Several of the lower ranked teams are likely substantially better than the projected standings indicate. I can't mix and match players, so Caleb, for example, is getting short changed on a lot of hitters who should either be called up or healthy a month or two into the season. Andy ended up with projections that are a bit short of where he should end up, since he is forced to "start" Clint Frazier, who is only projected to get 195 AB. Obviously, they won't be starting guys who get ~200 AB on the season, so counting stats will improve once he snags a starting OF from the wire or via trade. At the moment, he's also stuck sitting one of Chris Davis and Miguel Cabrera, so clear room for substantial improvement there with some roster shuffling. 

Spencer has an unbelievable amount of power, drafting Stanton, Odor, Trumbo, and Machado will do that for you. A ton of pitching volume too - leading the way with 1205 projected innings - puts him at the top of the heap in wins and tied for second in strikeouts. 

Taylor is betting on pitching upside (Ohtani, Kopech, Berrios, and Cole) and bounce back seasons from older hitters (Brantley, Donaldson, Lucroy, and Kiermaier). His staff is thin though - Kopech is in his starting lineup at the moment - so if some of those arms don't pan out, he could be in trouble. 

Visualizing Keepers

This draft is going to be weird.

Congrats Luke!

Nice job emerging from the three team dog fight. That relentless aggression paid off in the end, with a race that ended up being a lot closer than even I expected it. It seems appropriate that Trout led you to victory, even if it wasn't at the bargain basement price you had him at for years.

WHERE

Is Dr. Bill's DRAFT RECAP?? what has happened to the world we can't even count on that?!

Utter Andrew Domination

Have we ever had a winner with a higher point total? And with three kids to boot?  Congrats Andrew, those late nights in the film room really paid off!

Pitching for Hitting?

Looking to trade some quality starting pitching for some good hitting, probably OFs.

Everyone on the pitching staff (tanaka, Verlander, Quintana, etc.) on the block.