Thursday, March 27, 2014
Omar Infante is on the block
I'm looking to trade Omar Infante for a cheap starting pitcher. He MIGHT get surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow and be out a couple months. I actually didn't know about his injury when I nominated him in the draft expecting him to go for $5 or $6. If you've got the pitching depth to spare and can take on some risk, Infante could be a nice boost to your batting average while pitching in 15-20 HR+SB and acceptable run production. I'm really just looking for any $1-3 starting pitcher that I don't hate.
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Bill's Bold Predictions
I really enjoyed this series last year, so I wanted to keep it going again.
1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
Either this one seems totally nuts, if you're going by 2014 draft values, or fairly tame, if you're looking at 2013 numbers. Kinsler and Zobrist are both ranked well ahead of Dozier by experts, ADP, and us, going for $24 and $20 respectively, compared to Dozier's $6. However, Dozier had 18 HR and 14 SB last year in a breakout season for the Twins, while Kinsler had 13 HR and 15 SB and Zobrist had 12 HR and 11 SB.
2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
I was shocked when Nolasco went for only $1. Although he hasn't been the most exciting player over the last few years, he showed real improvement in 2013 with his swinging strike rate jumping to 10.5%, rivaling his heyday with the Marlins when he struck out 8+ batters/9. The swinging strike rate, coupled with his average zone swing rate, projects him for about 8.5 K/9 in 2013, a nice bump from the 7.5 K/9 he actually had. Add in a nice park and good walk rates, and you have a solid, almost every week starter.
For the record, his competition is: Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Skaggs, Erik Johnson, Phil Hughes, Bud Norris, Hector Santiago, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle
Plus the following injured/demoted players, who are unlikely to compete due to PT: Trevor Bauer, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Derek Holland
3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Danny Salazar had a 11.25 K/9 last year, which is supported by a spectacular 14.5% swinging strike rate, which would have been #1 in the majors by almost 2 percentage points had he qualified. He does it off of a spectacular fastball (96-97, touching 99) that was the best for a starter with 50 IP. The question for Salazar will be whether he can get enough innings - at the low end of his inning cap (160 IP), he'll need to match his 2013 K/9 to hit 200 K. Gray is coming off an equally impressive debut, albeit through totally different ways. Although his swinging strike rate is above average (9.5%), Gray gets a lot more strikeouts than you'd expect, thanks to a very low swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, much like Clay Buchholz last year. Unlike Salazar, Gray is looking at an uncapped season, so he doesn't need to be as spectacular to hit 200. Both have the skills to maintain their high K rates, and if they stay healthy, could be #1s.
4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova was utterly dominant down the stretch last year, posting a 2.78 ERA in the second half, despite a weak September. Both his underlying numbers (9.5% swinging strike rate, 60.1% zone swing rate) and his spectacular spring so far (21 K, 2 BB in 19 IP) indicate further strikeout upside. Nova was above average in K/9, BB/9, and inducing grounders. That's a nice combo to have.
5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater
Coming in to the 2013 season, Eaton was a highly anticipated prospect with the Diamondbacks. However, he got hurt in spring training and never really had a crack at full time playing time. He's only a year removed from stealing 46 bases in the minors and has good plate discipline, given him lots of opportunities. Most projections have him around 20 SB (Zips, Steamer, ESPN), but he has 40 SB upside, especially when paired with a manager willing to give him the green light.
Revisiting My 2013 Bold Predictions
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. Nova actually easily beat this bold prediction, as he was the #2 SP behind Kuroda, thanks in part to Sabathia's sudden downturn. I guess I'm doubling down on Nova.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs.
Reynolds ended up with 21 home runs, as playing time evaporated in the second half.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. EE actually outproduced both Pujols and Fielder, and was only topped by Chris Davis at first. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher.
Nope, although it wasn't who you might have expected ahead of him. A spectacular second half from VMart catapulted him to the #1 spot, while catcher in name only Mike Napoli held down #2. It was fairly close, though, with
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not sooner, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters.
Nope. Guess straight fastballs are hittable, even when they're 100 MPH. I was right to doubt Papa Grande, but Benoit took the job and ran with it. Thank God I didn't cut Wil Myers instead of Rondon midseason. That would have cost me a championship!
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Not only was Cobb the #2 starter on the Rays, he almost outperformed David Price, as both suffered through excellent, but injury shortened seasons. Cobb managed this despite throwing 43 fewer innings than Price.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Both Gardner (#35 mixed) and Crisp (#19 mixed) easily outperformed Bourn (#49 mixed)
Overall, I went 4/7, if you want to count my bonus questions, which, ironically, I thought were too unlikely to include in my main 5 (2/5 without).
1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
Either this one seems totally nuts, if you're going by 2014 draft values, or fairly tame, if you're looking at 2013 numbers. Kinsler and Zobrist are both ranked well ahead of Dozier by experts, ADP, and us, going for $24 and $20 respectively, compared to Dozier's $6. However, Dozier had 18 HR and 14 SB last year in a breakout season for the Twins, while Kinsler had 13 HR and 15 SB and Zobrist had 12 HR and 11 SB.
2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
I was shocked when Nolasco went for only $1. Although he hasn't been the most exciting player over the last few years, he showed real improvement in 2013 with his swinging strike rate jumping to 10.5%, rivaling his heyday with the Marlins when he struck out 8+ batters/9. The swinging strike rate, coupled with his average zone swing rate, projects him for about 8.5 K/9 in 2013, a nice bump from the 7.5 K/9 he actually had. Add in a nice park and good walk rates, and you have a solid, almost every week starter.
For the record, his competition is: Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Skaggs, Erik Johnson, Phil Hughes, Bud Norris, Hector Santiago, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle
Plus the following injured/demoted players, who are unlikely to compete due to PT: Trevor Bauer, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Derek Holland
3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Danny Salazar had a 11.25 K/9 last year, which is supported by a spectacular 14.5% swinging strike rate, which would have been #1 in the majors by almost 2 percentage points had he qualified. He does it off of a spectacular fastball (96-97, touching 99) that was the best for a starter with 50 IP. The question for Salazar will be whether he can get enough innings - at the low end of his inning cap (160 IP), he'll need to match his 2013 K/9 to hit 200 K. Gray is coming off an equally impressive debut, albeit through totally different ways. Although his swinging strike rate is above average (9.5%), Gray gets a lot more strikeouts than you'd expect, thanks to a very low swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, much like Clay Buchholz last year. Unlike Salazar, Gray is looking at an uncapped season, so he doesn't need to be as spectacular to hit 200. Both have the skills to maintain their high K rates, and if they stay healthy, could be #1s.
4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova was utterly dominant down the stretch last year, posting a 2.78 ERA in the second half, despite a weak September. Both his underlying numbers (9.5% swinging strike rate, 60.1% zone swing rate) and his spectacular spring so far (21 K, 2 BB in 19 IP) indicate further strikeout upside. Nova was above average in K/9, BB/9, and inducing grounders. That's a nice combo to have.
5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater
Coming in to the 2013 season, Eaton was a highly anticipated prospect with the Diamondbacks. However, he got hurt in spring training and never really had a crack at full time playing time. He's only a year removed from stealing 46 bases in the minors and has good plate discipline, given him lots of opportunities. Most projections have him around 20 SB (Zips, Steamer, ESPN), but he has 40 SB upside, especially when paired with a manager willing to give him the green light.
Revisiting My 2013 Bold Predictions
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. Nova actually easily beat this bold prediction, as he was the #2 SP behind Kuroda, thanks in part to Sabathia's sudden downturn. I guess I'm doubling down on Nova.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs.
Reynolds ended up with 21 home runs, as playing time evaporated in the second half.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. EE actually outproduced both Pujols and Fielder, and was only topped by Chris Davis at first. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher.
Nope, although it wasn't who you might have expected ahead of him. A spectacular second half from VMart catapulted him to the #1 spot, while catcher in name only Mike Napoli held down #2. It was fairly close, though, with
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not sooner, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters.
Nope. Guess straight fastballs are hittable, even when they're 100 MPH. I was right to doubt Papa Grande, but Benoit took the job and ran with it. Thank God I didn't cut Wil Myers instead of Rondon midseason. That would have cost me a championship!
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Not only was Cobb the #2 starter on the Rays, he almost outperformed David Price, as both suffered through excellent, but injury shortened seasons. Cobb managed this despite throwing 43 fewer innings than Price.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Both Gardner (#35 mixed) and Crisp (#19 mixed) easily outperformed Bourn (#49 mixed)
Overall, I went 4/7, if you want to count my bonus questions, which, ironically, I thought were too unlikely to include in my main 5 (2/5 without).
Looking to trade a Catcher
I'd like to trade either Joe Mauer or Jason Castro. Let me know if you're interested. I'm mostly looking for an outfielder or first baseman.
I'd also like my players to stop getting injured, at least until the season starts. Let me know if you can do anything about that.
I'd also like my players to stop getting injured, at least until the season starts. Let me know if you can do anything about that.
Monday, March 24, 2014
Projected Standings: Steamer
| Hitting | PA | Pitching | IP | Total | |
| Andrew | 23.5 | 6522 | 30 | 1116 | 53.5 |
| Spencer | 28 | 6326 | 23.5 | 1149 | 51.5 |
| Bill | 25 | 6521 | 26 | 1059 | 51 |
| Caleb | 31 | 6180 | 18.5 | 1074 | 49.5 |
| Kate | 15.5 | 6250 | 34 | 1145 | 49.5 |
| Luke | 26 | 6116 | 13 | 951 | 39 |
| Taylor | 17 | 6310 | 21.5 | 1087 | 38.5 |
| Mark | 14 | 5686 | 13.5 | 1084 | 27.5 |
I've included playing time estimates (plate appearances and IP) to provide some background. It looks like a mess at the top.
Updated the standings to fix some issues with ties with pitching stats. Almost everyone benefited a little bit, so the overall standings look the same.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Secret baby?
So many mysteries from last night's draft...
what DID Bill do for half an hour? Lower case sorry?
why DID Spencer spend $35 for Adam Jones?
WHY is there no analysis today on the blog? You've changed McDowells.
what DID Bill do for half an hour? Lower case sorry?
why DID Spencer spend $35 for Adam Jones?
WHY is there no analysis today on the blog? You've changed McDowells.
Friday, February 21, 2014
Differences of Opinion
I'm ahead of the game when it comes to prepping for the draft (consider it procrastination from actually writing my dissertation) and I noticed some interesting things when looking at how different projection systems value players. I'm going to be a bit vague here and there, so as to not give too much of my board away, but there are certainly some interesting tidbits here. To be clear, I'm working with the exact same set of constraints regarding hitter/pitcher splits, how to handle bench players, and other similar decisions, so differences there aren't driving these values.
Steamer and ESPN say top pitching is a worthwhile splurge. Fans and Baseball Prospectus say pitching is deep (for different reasons)
According to projections from Steamer and calculations available to ESPN Insiders, the top 10 pitchers should be rather highly paid - an average of $26 and $25, respectively. This matches up with what we spent on the top 10 pitchers last year - $26/top ten arm (including David Price, who was kept at $25). Fangraphs Fans and Baseball Prospectus' Player Forecast Manager, on the other hand, had the top 10 arms much more lightly valued, both coming in at $21 on average. What is interesting is that the Fans have this for two reasons. First, they project many young, rising pitchers to be excellent and surprise players to maintain their excellence. For example, both Sonny Gray and Hisashi Iwakuma both sneak into the back of the top 10. Second, by having very good projections for players who are expected to be back of the fantasy rotation arms, that substantially raises the replacement level, and therefore knocking down value off the top. Third, the fans are projecting several truly dominant performances by closers. Based on the projected statistics, Fans are valuing the top 5 closers at $25 on average; put another way, a top closer is worth more than a top starter. This is really being driven by some incredibly low ERAs and WHIPs, coupled with some spectacularly high save totals. Because the money in the pitcher pool is a fixed amount, by paying closers for their incredible projected performances, you're taking money away from starters.
Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand, ends up with the conservative valuation of top tier pitchers through more traditional and expected routes - conservative projections. All told, the BP projections are more conservative across the board, presumably due to the incorporation of regression to the mean into PECOTA.
ESPN is ready to bury high power, low average players
Two of the biggest differences for the valuation of individual players come from Adam Dunn and Nick Swisher. Both are fairly highly valued by Steamer projections, but barely rosterable per ESPN's projections.
Taking a closer look at Nick Swisher's projection, things get even more interesting...
These projections are almost as close as you can possibly imagine, with four of the categories being exactly the same. So just how do you end up with a $16 gap between the two identical projections?
Baseline.
ESPN's projections are very, very optimistic in terms of production, while Steamer's are much more conservative. For example, Swisher's .255 average is almost 20 points below the average for a starter in the league per ESPN. That exact same .255 average is only 10 points below average per Steamer. Ditto for home runs - Steamer has the starters hitting 18.3 home runs on average, while ESPN has them hitting 19.7. The Swisher example is a particularly striking one, but this is a great illustration about how these projections are apple and oranges, at least with regard to individual player lines.
The fans LOVE their bright new shiny baubles
Consistently across the board, fans rate unestablished, but up and coming players much more favorably than any of the other three projection systems.
Check out these high upside outfielders and where they rank at the position:
Avisail Garcia, for example, actually ranks higher than Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, Moss and Calhoun are ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Austin Jackson, and Oswaldo Arcia is ranked ahead of Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings, and Brett Gardner. It is important to recognize that the fans don't seem to be taking risk or downside into account properly, both in terms of performance and playing time. Perhaps when someone thinks "Kole Calhoun could hit 25 HR and steal 15 SB next year", that's what they put in as their projection. Another important aspect to this is that people are putting in projections, not rankings. I think if you asked anyone who put even the most optimistic Avisail Garcia projection, if they'd rather have Ellsbury or Garcia, they'd look at you like you had two heads. Nevertheless, that is how the projections work out. Either way, it is incredible to see players who will probably be a few bucks ranked ahead of $25+ players like Ellsbury.
Steamer and ESPN say top pitching is a worthwhile splurge. Fans and Baseball Prospectus say pitching is deep (for different reasons)
According to projections from Steamer and calculations available to ESPN Insiders, the top 10 pitchers should be rather highly paid - an average of $26 and $25, respectively. This matches up with what we spent on the top 10 pitchers last year - $26/top ten arm (including David Price, who was kept at $25). Fangraphs Fans and Baseball Prospectus' Player Forecast Manager, on the other hand, had the top 10 arms much more lightly valued, both coming in at $21 on average. What is interesting is that the Fans have this for two reasons. First, they project many young, rising pitchers to be excellent and surprise players to maintain their excellence. For example, both Sonny Gray and Hisashi Iwakuma both sneak into the back of the top 10. Second, by having very good projections for players who are expected to be back of the fantasy rotation arms, that substantially raises the replacement level, and therefore knocking down value off the top. Third, the fans are projecting several truly dominant performances by closers. Based on the projected statistics, Fans are valuing the top 5 closers at $25 on average; put another way, a top closer is worth more than a top starter. This is really being driven by some incredibly low ERAs and WHIPs, coupled with some spectacularly high save totals. Because the money in the pitcher pool is a fixed amount, by paying closers for their incredible projected performances, you're taking money away from starters.
Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand, ends up with the conservative valuation of top tier pitchers through more traditional and expected routes - conservative projections. All told, the BP projections are more conservative across the board, presumably due to the incorporation of regression to the mean into PECOTA.
ESPN is ready to bury high power, low average players
Two of the biggest differences for the valuation of individual players come from Adam Dunn and Nick Swisher. Both are fairly highly valued by Steamer projections, but barely rosterable per ESPN's projections.
| Difference | High Proj. | Low. Proj. | |
| Adam Dunn | 19.46 | Steamer | ESPN |
| Nick Swisher | 15.7 | Steamer | ESPN |
Taking a closer look at Nick Swisher's projection, things get even more interesting...
| HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | |
| Steamer | 23 | 80 | 85 | 2 | 0.255 |
| ESPN | 23 | 80 | 79 | 2 | 0.255 |
These projections are almost as close as you can possibly imagine, with four of the categories being exactly the same. So just how do you end up with a $16 gap between the two identical projections?
Baseline.
ESPN's projections are very, very optimistic in terms of production, while Steamer's are much more conservative. For example, Swisher's .255 average is almost 20 points below the average for a starter in the league per ESPN. That exact same .255 average is only 10 points below average per Steamer. Ditto for home runs - Steamer has the starters hitting 18.3 home runs on average, while ESPN has them hitting 19.7. The Swisher example is a particularly striking one, but this is a great illustration about how these projections are apple and oranges, at least with regard to individual player lines.
The fans LOVE their bright new shiny baubles
Consistently across the board, fans rate unestablished, but up and coming players much more favorably than any of the other three projection systems.
Check out these high upside outfielders and where they rank at the position:
| Difference | High Proj. | Low. Proj. | Rank | |
| Avisail Garcia | 17.19 | Fans | Steamer | 9 |
| Brandon Moss | 18.7 | Fans | BP | 12 |
| Kole Calhoun | 14.55 | Fans | ESPN | 14 |
| Oswaldo Arcia | 12.51 | Fans | ESPN | 19 |
Avisail Garcia, for example, actually ranks higher than Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, Moss and Calhoun are ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Austin Jackson, and Oswaldo Arcia is ranked ahead of Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings, and Brett Gardner. It is important to recognize that the fans don't seem to be taking risk or downside into account properly, both in terms of performance and playing time. Perhaps when someone thinks "Kole Calhoun could hit 25 HR and steal 15 SB next year", that's what they put in as their projection. Another important aspect to this is that people are putting in projections, not rankings. I think if you asked anyone who put even the most optimistic Avisail Garcia projection, if they'd rather have Ellsbury or Garcia, they'd look at you like you had two heads. Nevertheless, that is how the projections work out. Either way, it is incredible to see players who will probably be a few bucks ranked ahead of $25+ players like Ellsbury.
Thursday, January 9, 2014
The Worst Team Money Could Have Bought
I was looking at last year's draft and comparing it to overall values. I was struck by how much dead money there was (players who were drafted, but were below replacement level) - $338 split between 66 players. Most of that money went to players who were at least on the bubble of starting ($264 to players paid $8 or more).
Here is a team (using the full $260 budget), comprised entirely of below replacement players:
Ouch. The money lost on bad picks dwarfs any keeper gains ($492 of salary for $564 of value). No surprises at the bottom of the keeper value list - Brett Lawrie and Prince Fielder both fell more than $10 short of their cost, but Josh Hamilton "wins out" at -$13.
On the flip side, the top 24 undrafted free agents accounted for $245 worth of value. This doesn't even take into account the many, many players who were drafted, cut, then went on to provide a lot of value, such as Leonys Martin ($15), Ivan Nova ($8), or Ubaldo Jimenez ($12).
Better use the wire well if you want to win!
Here is a team (using the full $260 budget), comprised entirely of below replacement players:
Ouch. The money lost on bad picks dwarfs any keeper gains ($492 of salary for $564 of value). No surprises at the bottom of the keeper value list - Brett Lawrie and Prince Fielder both fell more than $10 short of their cost, but Josh Hamilton "wins out" at -$13.
On the flip side, the top 24 undrafted free agents accounted for $245 worth of value. This doesn't even take into account the many, many players who were drafted, cut, then went on to provide a lot of value, such as Leonys Martin ($15), Ivan Nova ($8), or Ubaldo Jimenez ($12).
Better use the wire well if you want to win!
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