Apologies for these getting in so late. I don't think any are too impacted by week 1 of the season, though feel free to call me out if needed. Most of these were written before the season started, except those marked with an asterisk.
Adrian Beltre is a
top 3 3B
Beltre went for $17 in the draft, less than half of what
Donaldson cost and just a hair over what Frazier cost. Throw in Manny Machado
as a keeper, as well as Kyle Seager ($24) and Beltre has some stiff competition
at the hot corner. Here’s the thing though – after struggling in the first
half, Beltre was electric down the stretch (10 HR, 39 R, 56 RBI, .327 average),
when he was finally able to put a thumb injury behind him. The Rangers offense
clicked in the second half, so I think Beltre will elevate himself to the top
of tier 2 at the position, behind Donaldson and Machado.
Mike Moustakas hits 28
HR, with 100 RBI with a .275 average
The power tool was always there with Moustakas, but contact
issues and a pull happy approach limited his effectiveness. Moustakas has
improved his K rate every year since 2012, even as K rates rose in the majors.
In 2015, Moustakas conspicuously made an effort to use the whole field –
hitting more balls to the opposite field in 2015 than he did the previous three
years combined. I’m hoping that Moustakas can tap into his natural power (36
HR, .300+ ISO in the minors in 2012), while maintaining his more sophisticated
approach that keeps defenses honest. Moose is absolutely crushing the ball this
spring (1.047 OPS), but he does that every year, so I’m banking more on his
scouting than his spring numbers here.
Marcus Semien is a
top 2 shortstop
No, he’s not going to touch Carlos Correa, but Semien
handled a major shift to shortstop last year including some rough defensive
growing pains. He put up a 15 HR / 11 SB line overall, but had a rough
midseason swoon before finishing extremely strong. That swoon coincided with an
intensive focus on his defense with Ron Washington
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-marcus-semienron-washington-lesson/,
and once the defense lessons were done, Semien went back to being a 130 wRC+
hitter. You conveniently set aside his midseason swoon, you get a 23 HR, 16 SB
season (prorated for 600 AB). At the thinnest position in the AL, that’s a hell
of a lot of production for $8.
Michael Pineda is a
top 10 starter
Pineda was spectacular for the better part of the season
last year, putting up a spectacular 111 K and only 13 BB in 106 innings before
the break last year. Injuries and fatigue appeared to catch up with him, as his
ERA was 5.80 in a limited 54 inning sample after the ASB. That shouldn’t be
surprising, as Pineda hadn’t thrown that many innings in a season since 2011.
With 161 innings under his belt from last year, Pineda is ready to step forward
and be a clear cut #1 starter with his great K and walk rates, above average GB
%, and a HR/FB rate that will return to league averages (~10%) from its
inflated 2015 value (14.7%). My pitching model pegged Pineda as the 18th
best starter in all of baseball last year, and this year, he capitalizes on
that promise and those underlying numbers en route to a top 10 SP season.
Luis Severino is a
top 16 starter (drafted as SP #26)
Another darling of the model, Severino combines excellent
control, a high ground ball rate, and very good strikeout numbers. The
groundballs, in particular, will serve him well in some of the high HR parks of
the AL East. The cherry on top? Severino’s walk rate was ok, but a touch worse
than league average last year (8.6% vs 7.7%). However, based on his underlying plate
discipline numbers, in particular, getting a first pitch strike 63% of the
time, I projected an above average walk rate (7.1%). Some of that gap may be a
learning curve dealing with hitters in the majors, but if he bridges even half
that gap, his strikeout rate (8.1 K /9) and groundball rate (50%) peg him as a
massive breakout.
Kevin Gausman puts
his shoulder weakness behind him and breaks out, besting his 2015 season
across the board, topping his 2015 K/9 (8.3), BB/9 (2.3) and posting an ERA of 3.50 or better. Gausman has been pegged by many as a breakout year after year, but this is the year he finally puts it all together. He’s generating an increasing number of pop ups and his K rate has been steadily improving. Bonus prediction: Despite a preseason evaluation from Taylor that “he doesn’t fit my current approach to pitching”, Taylor will begrudgingly trade for Gausman in July.
**Hanley takes to 1B,
posting a .300 / 25 HR / 10 SB season
Had high hopes for Hanley last year, but that was clearly a
disaster. He’s slimmed down this offseason, and crushed the ball in spring
training. Back in the infield, he won’t have to worry about his defense as
much, and he can get back to being a steady all around performer at first. 25
HR would be the highest total for him since 2008, but he did crack 10 HR in
April last year (en route to a terribly disappointing 19 on the year). .300/25/10 doesn't seem like a ton, except no one did it at 1B last year, 1B #3 Eric Hosmer came closest, but only 18 HR. There’s
no outfield wall for Hanley to worry about now, so watch out. Bonus prediction: Hanley’s UZR/150
at 1B will be 0 or higher (above average fielder).
**Prorated for 150
games, Devon Travis sets a 40 HR+SB, 100 R pace
The Blue Jays offense is dominant from just about top to
bottom, the exception being Ryan Goins and others at the keystone. Travis was a
spectacular hitter last season, crushing the ball, walking a ton, and stealing
a few bases. Travis stole more bases in the minors, and it looks like at 24 he
started to develop a good bit more power, especially on pitches up and in.
Put together that profile, plus his relatively diminutive size (5’9”), you’re
looking at vintage Pedroia tomahawking balls over the Green Monster. Travis is
recovering from significant shoulder surgery now, but is expected to be back in
late May. Once he’s back, though, he’ll work his way to the top of the Blue
Jays lineup and fill up box scores in a hurry.
**Setting aside saves,
Betances is #1 RP in the Yankees bullpen for all 4 categories (via PR score)
He’s up against two truly elite teammates, but Dellin Betances
is just absolutely lights out. He has a head start on innings vs. Chapman, and
a role more suited to throwing two innings at a time than Miller, and might
even pile up 100 IP this season. Miller or Chapman might beat him a bit in ERA
or WHIP, but when you weight his still elite performance by innings (as the
player rater does) Betances will come out as the across the board champ in the
Yankees pen. Combine that with a cheaper (though still significant) $7 price
tag, and you’ve got a nice value to limit damage on missing badly on Gausman,
Severino, or Pineda.
**Steve Souza combines
for 50 HR+SB
Just a year too early Andrew! A year too early. God, what
kind of idiot told you to make that trade.
