Monday, March 25, 2013
Too many prospects
Trevor Bauer and Johnny Giavotella have gone to AAA. Dan Straily will probably go to AAA once Bartolo Colon's suspension is over. Apparently Erasmo Ramirez is headed to the bullpen. This leaves me with 4 out of 5 bench spots being used on young guys with high upside who, at least early on, will not be contributing any fantasy value. I'm looking to trade some of these guys in exchange for a major league starting pitcher or hitter. Straily is $3, Ramirez is $2, and Bauer and Giavotella are each $1, so all of these guys could end up being great 2014 keepers.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Andrew's "Oh God, I really need these predictions to come true"
One of the advantages of dropping $129 on three hitters is that you end up with a lot of uncertainty on your bench (and in your starting lineup!), which gives you something to dream on. Here are my “Oh god, these better come true” predictions for 2013.
1) Jon Lester returns to form, and finishes in the top 5 for Cy Young voting.
The AL East is no longer quite so scary, and with Lester reunited with John Farrell, I'm hoping for a 9K/9, 3.3BB/9 sort of season from Lester, which is about what he did in 2010. His spring numbers have been quite good, including 6 no hit innings (with 10 Ks!) against the Yankees, further contributing to my irrational exuberance.
2) Glen Perkins finishes in the top 3 RP, by player rater.
I love his stuff, which is greatly improved since the move to the bullpen, and while Perkins is a lefty, he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Saves could be a bit of an issue, since that seems to be what really drives the top RPs, but I think Perkins can pick up enough to be in the top 3.
3)Justin Smoak finishes the season as a top 10 option at 1B (looking at the player card, which pulls out guys like Mauer and V-Mart, since they play more demanding positions).
This one is a big reach. Smoak's numbers last September and in Spring Training are outstanding, but the scouting report remains mixed. I believe Keith Law called him "slow" and "not the same player he was at South Carolina." That said, he's been driving the ball well, and if he can get the batting average up, it seems doable. I'm also counting on a revamped Seattle lineup, with no more Miguel Olivo and his 0.239 OBP (Ed note: this is not a misprint) (Note 2: This was only 50 points lower than Smoak's OBP. (Note 3: Uh oh.) as well as the slightly cozier park to boost Smoak's RBI and R opportunities.
4) Alex Gordon hits 40+ HR+SB
The SB portion of this could make it hard to attain, but I think Gordon is going to really bounce back power wise. He managed to hit 51 doubles, so it's not like he was powerless, and his batted ball distance remained robust. I'm hoping for a 25-15 season.
5) Jake Arrieta finishes the year as the highest rated Baltimore SP by Player Rater
It’s not exactly an overwhelming feat, given the state of the rest of the Orioles’ rotation, but given Arrieta’s ugly 6.20 ERA last season, I’m going to call this bold. He was once a top pitching prospect, and has improved his K/BB in the last three seasons. That K/9 is almost certainly coming down, but I could see Arrieta finishing the year with an ERA in the high threes and around 150 strikeouts. Think of him as a bargain bin Doug Fister.
1) Jon Lester returns to form, and finishes in the top 5 for Cy Young voting.
The AL East is no longer quite so scary, and with Lester reunited with John Farrell, I'm hoping for a 9K/9, 3.3BB/9 sort of season from Lester, which is about what he did in 2010. His spring numbers have been quite good, including 6 no hit innings (with 10 Ks!) against the Yankees, further contributing to my irrational exuberance.
2) Glen Perkins finishes in the top 3 RP, by player rater.
I love his stuff, which is greatly improved since the move to the bullpen, and while Perkins is a lefty, he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Saves could be a bit of an issue, since that seems to be what really drives the top RPs, but I think Perkins can pick up enough to be in the top 3.
3)Justin Smoak finishes the season as a top 10 option at 1B (looking at the player card, which pulls out guys like Mauer and V-Mart, since they play more demanding positions).
This one is a big reach. Smoak's numbers last September and in Spring Training are outstanding, but the scouting report remains mixed. I believe Keith Law called him "slow" and "not the same player he was at South Carolina." That said, he's been driving the ball well, and if he can get the batting average up, it seems doable. I'm also counting on a revamped Seattle lineup, with no more Miguel Olivo and his 0.239 OBP (Ed note: this is not a misprint) (Note 2: This was only 50 points lower than Smoak's OBP. (Note 3: Uh oh.) as well as the slightly cozier park to boost Smoak's RBI and R opportunities.
4) Alex Gordon hits 40+ HR+SB
The SB portion of this could make it hard to attain, but I think Gordon is going to really bounce back power wise. He managed to hit 51 doubles, so it's not like he was powerless, and his batted ball distance remained robust. I'm hoping for a 25-15 season.
5) Jake Arrieta finishes the year as the highest rated Baltimore SP by Player Rater
It’s not exactly an overwhelming feat, given the state of the rest of the Orioles’ rotation, but given Arrieta’s ugly 6.20 ERA last season, I’m going to call this bold. He was once a top pitching prospect, and has improved his K/BB in the last three seasons. That K/9 is almost certainly coming down, but I could see Arrieta finishing the year with an ERA in the high threes and around 150 strikeouts. Think of him as a bargain bin Doug Fister.
All noise, no signal. My 5 bold predictions for my yet-to-be-named team in 2013.
I don't have time to back these up with numbers, but here are my five bold predictions. Like Luke, I really enjoyed the FanGraphs series last season. Some of these predictions may not be all that bold, but we'll see:
1) I drafted one guy I thought was a sure-thing closer (Janssen) and one guy who I thought might pick up some saves in April and then be a decent middle reliever (Frieri). My bold prediction is that Janssen doesn't get more than 5 saves this season, while Frieri grabs 40 and is a top 3 closer this year.
2) JJ Hardy gets 600 ABs, hits 30 HR, and has a batting average greater than .270.
3) Joe Mauer misses enough of the season with various ailments to cause him to be just shy of qualifying for the batting title...which he would have won handily with his .340 batting average.
4) Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title instead, and leads the league in HRs again. He misses out on the Triple Crown, as he finishes behind Prince Fielder in RBI.
5) Jason Hammel, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone are all in the top 10 in voting for the Cy Young award, but none of them have a particularly strong campaign for the award as Hammel only wins 10 games, Parker doesn't get a ton of Ks, and no one knows who Tommy Milone is. David Price wins it instead.
1) I drafted one guy I thought was a sure-thing closer (Janssen) and one guy who I thought might pick up some saves in April and then be a decent middle reliever (Frieri). My bold prediction is that Janssen doesn't get more than 5 saves this season, while Frieri grabs 40 and is a top 3 closer this year.
2) JJ Hardy gets 600 ABs, hits 30 HR, and has a batting average greater than .270.
3) Joe Mauer misses enough of the season with various ailments to cause him to be just shy of qualifying for the batting title...which he would have won handily with his .340 batting average.
4) Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title instead, and leads the league in HRs again. He misses out on the Triple Crown, as he finishes behind Prince Fielder in RBI.
5) Jason Hammel, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone are all in the top 10 in voting for the Cy Young award, but none of them have a particularly strong campaign for the award as Hammel only wins 10 games, Parker doesn't get a ton of Ks, and no one knows who Tommy Milone is. David Price wins it instead.
Look upon my team ye mighty and despair, or Bill's Bold Predictions
All right, here are my predictions. Just like Luke's, these are all unlikely to happen, but are conceivable.
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. You might not have noticed, but Nova took major steps forward last year, upping his strike out rate in a big way. This matches up with an increased swinging strike rate, so it is likely sustainable. Unfortunately, it also happened to be a year where his ERA increased by 1.30, ballooning over 5. Nova will hang on to his strikeout gains, bump his GB % back up, and his gradually increased workload will let him get to 200 innings for the first time in his career. An ERA of 3.75, WHIP of 1.27, and 170 Ks are well within reach. On principle, I refuse to project wins.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs. I was absolutely shocked to get Reynolds for $1 in the draft, given he went for $14 two years ago and performed well enough to be kept the following year. 2012 was a down year for Reynolds, but now that he is over nagging injuries and can DH full time, he'll rediscover his power stroke and hit 30 home runs, to go along with a .240 average.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. Pujols has been declining for several years, and while Fielder is rock solid, he doesn't run. EE should be able to stay in front of one of them, especially with a much deeper Toronto lineup around him this year, with the return of Bautista and the addition of Jose Reyes.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher, finally making good on his potential in the last year of his contract. Santana scuffled badly in the first half, dealing with injuries and hitting a meager five home runs. Post All Star Break, Santana was dominant, hitting .280 with 13 home runs and more walks than strike outs. In 2013 he builds off his second half success and hits 25 home runs and a .270 average, while in the neighborhood of 90 runs and 90 RBI.
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not soon, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters. Rondon was a mess to begin spring training, but since his mechanics were tweaked in a bullpen session he's been lights out: 6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 1 ER. His WHIP might not be doing me any favors, Guys who can throw over 100 mph are hard to come by and even harder to hit. There are other interesting arms in that bullpen, but both Coke and Dotel have huge splits, Benoit can't pitch on back to back days, and Al Albuquerque can't stay healthy. Finally, Jim Leyland has shown that he can tolerate a closer who will walk a guy from time to time, as shown by Jose Valverde's three year stint as closer.
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb takes advantage of Matt Moore still failing to put it all together and Jeremy Hellickson finally regressing to the mean to become the #2 starter on the Rays. There is no doubt I overpaid for Cobb, but his spring has been excellent, both in terms of numbers and scouting reports.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn.
Torii Hunter hangs on to his counting stats and his batting average regression is small enough that he remains a top 15 outfielder.
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. You might not have noticed, but Nova took major steps forward last year, upping his strike out rate in a big way. This matches up with an increased swinging strike rate, so it is likely sustainable. Unfortunately, it also happened to be a year where his ERA increased by 1.30, ballooning over 5. Nova will hang on to his strikeout gains, bump his GB % back up, and his gradually increased workload will let him get to 200 innings for the first time in his career. An ERA of 3.75, WHIP of 1.27, and 170 Ks are well within reach. On principle, I refuse to project wins.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs. I was absolutely shocked to get Reynolds for $1 in the draft, given he went for $14 two years ago and performed well enough to be kept the following year. 2012 was a down year for Reynolds, but now that he is over nagging injuries and can DH full time, he'll rediscover his power stroke and hit 30 home runs, to go along with a .240 average.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. Pujols has been declining for several years, and while Fielder is rock solid, he doesn't run. EE should be able to stay in front of one of them, especially with a much deeper Toronto lineup around him this year, with the return of Bautista and the addition of Jose Reyes.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher, finally making good on his potential in the last year of his contract. Santana scuffled badly in the first half, dealing with injuries and hitting a meager five home runs. Post All Star Break, Santana was dominant, hitting .280 with 13 home runs and more walks than strike outs. In 2013 he builds off his second half success and hits 25 home runs and a .270 average, while in the neighborhood of 90 runs and 90 RBI.
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not soon, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters. Rondon was a mess to begin spring training, but since his mechanics were tweaked in a bullpen session he's been lights out: 6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 1 ER. His WHIP might not be doing me any favors, Guys who can throw over 100 mph are hard to come by and even harder to hit. There are other interesting arms in that bullpen, but both Coke and Dotel have huge splits, Benoit can't pitch on back to back days, and Al Albuquerque can't stay healthy. Finally, Jim Leyland has shown that he can tolerate a closer who will walk a guy from time to time, as shown by Jose Valverde's three year stint as closer.
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb takes advantage of Matt Moore still failing to put it all together and Jeremy Hellickson finally regressing to the mean to become the #2 starter on the Rays. There is no doubt I overpaid for Cobb, but his spring has been excellent, both in terms of numbers and scouting reports.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn.
Torii Hunter hangs on to his counting stats and his batting average regression is small enough that he remains a top 15 outfielder.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Five Patently Nuts Bold Predictions for 2013
Okay, I can't stand waiting for baseball to start. In the meantime, I want to generate some conversation. I liked the "Bold Prediction" articles that Fangraphs did last year, so I figured I'd do five such bold predictions myself, each about a player on my fantasy team.
Remember, these are supposed to be "bold predictions," not things that I realistically expect to happen. I'll have done pretty well if 1 out of 5 comes true, and practically be a psychic if I get 2 right. Basically, these are the 5 scenarios that I see as unlikely but possible, and that come true in my dreams and give me my first Durham Plays for Keeps fantasy title.
1) Erick Aybar ends the season as the #2 shortstop on player rater, 2nd only to Reyes. Originally I was only going to say that Aybar beats Andrus on player rater, but after actually looking up their scores the last few years I realized that they were quite close together, so that wouldn't have been a very bold prediction. Aybar finished 5th last year, without Reyes in the AL, so to make 2nd he'll need to pass Andrus, Zobrist, Escobar, and Jeter. This prediction is entirely based on the hope that Aybar gets to hit 2nd in the Angels lineup. That's an amazing spot to hit, after Trout and before Pujols, Hamilton, and Trumbo. Personally, I'd put Callaspo and his better OBP in that spot, but I'm not Mike Scioscia. If Aybar spends most of the season in the 2 hole, he could easily set career highs in runs (90+) and RBIs (70+). Combine that with his decent batting average, 25-30 steals, and 10+ home runs thanks to an increase in plate appearances, and you've got the #2 shortstop in the AL.
2) Sal Perez hits .300 with 20 home runs and 90 RBIs. This would be nothing more than Perez maintaining his 2012 pace over a full season spent hitting #5 behind Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. Perez turns 23 this year and has spent the last 2 years tearing up AAA and the majors as long as he's been healthy. I really like the Royals lineup this year and I think Perez will get a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
3) R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. He did this last year, so what makes this a bold prediction? Well, Dickey is 38, has 1 successful season under his belt, throws a knuckleball, is missing a ligament, and is moving from the NL to the scary AL East. Also, 20 wins is just generally quite rare. There are usually only 1 or 2 20-game winners in the AL each year. However, he's pitching on the team with what I think will be the best offense in the AL East this year. The other AL East lineups, with the exception of Baltimore, aren't as scary as they used to be. Dickey rocked an awesome 3.18 SIERA last year, good for 4th among pitchers in the AL in 2013. He also did very well in 2 important categories for predicting a pitcher's allowed BABIP: infield fly rate and z-contact%. In the latter, he was tied with Verlander for the best mark in the majors at 79%.
4) Ichiro Suzuki matches his career high and hits 15 home runs. Counting the playoffs, Ichiro hit 6 home runs in 152 plate apperances in Yankee Stadium last year. All of these home runs were pulled to the right field short porch. Ichiro has said in the past that he could be home run hitter if he wanted, which is probably just crazy talk, but hey, that's why this is a bold prediction, right? Injuries in the Yankees' lineup put Ichiro hitting near the top of the order most of the season, so he gets his usual 700+ PAs. I think he is tempted by the short porch in right and modifies his approach to try and pull the ball a bit more.
5) Mike Trout. I couldn't have written this post without including a bold prediction for Mike Trout, right? So here it is. Mike Trout will beat his 2012 roto numbers in at least 2 out of 5 categories. That's bold enough for a guy coming off probably the most ridiculously good fantasy season we've seen, right? I was tempted to say 3 out of 5, but considering that he realistically has almost no chance of matching his .326 average last season, getting 2 out of the 4 counting stats would be pretty outstanding. I think the most likely 2 categories are runs (129) and RBIs (83), because that lineup he'll be hitting in is just ridiculous.
BONUS patently-obvious-anybody-who-disagrees-is-a-fool-duh-how-can-you-not-see-that-this-is-almost-definitely-going-to-happen projection:
Aaron Hicks' roto line this year - .327 AVG, 130 runs, 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 50 steals. Look familiar?
Bold enough? Too bold? What are your bold predictions for your own team?
Remember, these are supposed to be "bold predictions," not things that I realistically expect to happen. I'll have done pretty well if 1 out of 5 comes true, and practically be a psychic if I get 2 right. Basically, these are the 5 scenarios that I see as unlikely but possible, and that come true in my dreams and give me my first Durham Plays for Keeps fantasy title.
1) Erick Aybar ends the season as the #2 shortstop on player rater, 2nd only to Reyes. Originally I was only going to say that Aybar beats Andrus on player rater, but after actually looking up their scores the last few years I realized that they were quite close together, so that wouldn't have been a very bold prediction. Aybar finished 5th last year, without Reyes in the AL, so to make 2nd he'll need to pass Andrus, Zobrist, Escobar, and Jeter. This prediction is entirely based on the hope that Aybar gets to hit 2nd in the Angels lineup. That's an amazing spot to hit, after Trout and before Pujols, Hamilton, and Trumbo. Personally, I'd put Callaspo and his better OBP in that spot, but I'm not Mike Scioscia. If Aybar spends most of the season in the 2 hole, he could easily set career highs in runs (90+) and RBIs (70+). Combine that with his decent batting average, 25-30 steals, and 10+ home runs thanks to an increase in plate appearances, and you've got the #2 shortstop in the AL.
2) Sal Perez hits .300 with 20 home runs and 90 RBIs. This would be nothing more than Perez maintaining his 2012 pace over a full season spent hitting #5 behind Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. Perez turns 23 this year and has spent the last 2 years tearing up AAA and the majors as long as he's been healthy. I really like the Royals lineup this year and I think Perez will get a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
3) R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. He did this last year, so what makes this a bold prediction? Well, Dickey is 38, has 1 successful season under his belt, throws a knuckleball, is missing a ligament, and is moving from the NL to the scary AL East. Also, 20 wins is just generally quite rare. There are usually only 1 or 2 20-game winners in the AL each year. However, he's pitching on the team with what I think will be the best offense in the AL East this year. The other AL East lineups, with the exception of Baltimore, aren't as scary as they used to be. Dickey rocked an awesome 3.18 SIERA last year, good for 4th among pitchers in the AL in 2013. He also did very well in 2 important categories for predicting a pitcher's allowed BABIP: infield fly rate and z-contact%. In the latter, he was tied with Verlander for the best mark in the majors at 79%.
4) Ichiro Suzuki matches his career high and hits 15 home runs. Counting the playoffs, Ichiro hit 6 home runs in 152 plate apperances in Yankee Stadium last year. All of these home runs were pulled to the right field short porch. Ichiro has said in the past that he could be home run hitter if he wanted, which is probably just crazy talk, but hey, that's why this is a bold prediction, right? Injuries in the Yankees' lineup put Ichiro hitting near the top of the order most of the season, so he gets his usual 700+ PAs. I think he is tempted by the short porch in right and modifies his approach to try and pull the ball a bit more.
5) Mike Trout. I couldn't have written this post without including a bold prediction for Mike Trout, right? So here it is. Mike Trout will beat his 2012 roto numbers in at least 2 out of 5 categories. That's bold enough for a guy coming off probably the most ridiculously good fantasy season we've seen, right? I was tempted to say 3 out of 5, but considering that he realistically has almost no chance of matching his .326 average last season, getting 2 out of the 4 counting stats would be pretty outstanding. I think the most likely 2 categories are runs (129) and RBIs (83), because that lineup he'll be hitting in is just ridiculous.
BONUS patently-obvious-anybody-who-disagrees-is-a-fool-duh-how-can-you-not-see-that-this-is-almost-definitely-going-to-happen projection:
Aaron Hicks' roto line this year - .327 AVG, 130 runs, 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 50 steals. Look familiar?
Bold enough? Too bold? What are your bold predictions for your own team?
Monday, March 18, 2013
If you thought I was down on Mike Trout
You probably shouldn't read Ron Shandler's article. Despite being a lot more down on Trout than Luke, I think Shandler's projected line(15-20 HR, .285 average, 25 stolen bases) is "patently nuts" to use the phrase du season. Of course, so do some other folks, including Rotoauthority's Chris Liss.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Reynolds for an SP
I'm looking for a back end starting pitcher and am willing to trade Mark Reynolds for one (perhaps five players who can play first is too many). Let me know if you're interestesd
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