Draft recap

It was an interesting draft this year.  There was a great deal more inflation in 2012 than any previous year (almost three times more, by my calculations) and it made for some pretty dramatic bids and extreme strategies. Although we had less dead money from cut keepers than previous years, we left more money on the table this year ($21, compared to $10 in 2012). That money would have yielded a player like CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Torii Hunter.

Andrew came out swinging, picking up the top 2 hitters available in Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, while dropping $100 on the two. Considering Andrew spent $70 on his keepers, this was amazingly aggressive - an extreme stars and scrubs approach we hadn't seen in the draft before. Both Pujols broke the record high salary at $48, only to see it broken again moments later by our first $50 player in Miguel Cabrera. After dropping $68 on three starting pitchers and a closer, Andrew scraped the bottom of the barrel to assemble the rest of his roster. Thirteen players, more than half his roster, make $3 or less. Smoak is having a great spring and has some promise, but is currently penciled in as a start for Andrew. He also managed to amass three excellent middle relievers in Doolittle, McGee, and Albuquerque. Unfortunately, while Andrew's offense is projected to be excellent (31 points, 2nd overall), his pitching lags behind (10 points, 8th overall), with Andrew last in wins, strikeouts, and saves. If he can work the wire well, that could be addressed, but if Sale goes down or Lester continues to struggle, his lack of starting pitching depth could prove to be his undoing.
Best pick: Drew Smyly, $1. Despite being a hyped sleeper throughout this spring, Smyly avoided a bidding war that affected players such as Alex Cobb or Aaron Hicks.
Worst pick: Jon Lester, $18. Thanks to Red Sox inflation, Andrew had to pay nearly full freight on Lester, despite three seasons of steady decline from Lester.

After the one man spending spree dropped $100 on Pujols and Cabrera, I think we were all shell shocked a bit. CC Sabathia was nominated next and I was able to snag him for a very reasonable $21. I followed this up with spending top dollar on Justin Verlander ($37), setting a record high for pitchers in the process. Four players in, $158 had come off the board, including the top two hitters, the top pitcher, and another top five starter. I built the rest of my staff around the two big starters, relying on middle relievers and back end starters such as Ivan Nova, Lucas Harrell, and Alex Cobb to round out my staff.  Offensively, I was very quiet until 30 picks in to the draft. With four outfield slots to fill, I focused on moderate outfielders who were older, coming off of injury, or both, with Hunter, Gardner, and Crisp rounding out my top 3 OF. Middle infield was a bit of a mess, as I was forced into bidding wars on the last viable starting second baseman and shortstop in Alexei Ramirez and Omar Infante, but both are slightly below average in just about every category.
Best pick: CC Sabathia, $21. Discussed above. Mark Reynolds, $1. As the first $1 player, Mark Reynolds isn't anything special, but he's good for 25 home runs a year. Chris Carter's upside is something like what you can expect from Mark Reynolds and he was $5
Worst pick: Alex Cobb, $10. Cobb was a player I had penciled in for less than $5, but a bidding war broke out.  He is someone I am very high on, but given that Jarrod Parker and Josh Johnson both went for $13, and have considerably higher upside, Cobb is clearly overpaid.

Finally, Kate decided that someone who isn't a McDowell should end up with a player, and snagged new AL shortstop Jose Reyes. Reyes was far and away Kate's most expensive hitter at $34, as all of her other hitters were $11 or less. Kate was true to previous form, spending $80 on starting pitching alone, the standard allotment for an entire pitching staff. Her staff is elite, with 33 projected pitching points, and is led by two extremely high upside starters in Matt Moore and Max Scherzer.  In an impressive run, she picked up Matt Moore, Joel Hanrahan, and Hiroki Kuroda on three consecutive picks. Unfortunately, her offense lags behind, and she is only projected to get 11 points in the hitting categories. She'll need a big breakout from Chris Carter, as well as the long awaited Colby Rasmus breakout to compete in home runs and RBI.
Best pick: Joe Nathan, $15. For some reason, folks thought Kate was autobidding on Nathan.  The prices for lesser closers nearly matched or surpassed Nathan,so the $15 she spent looks awfully good in retrospect.
Worst pick: Mike Morse, $17. Morse is a groundball hitter, despite his power surge in 2011, and is moving to an unfavorable hitters park and a weak lineup. ESPN projects him to hit 25 home runs

Following Kate picking up Reyes, Spencer went big on Jose Bautista at $38. This kicked off a spending spree for Spencer and he spent $206 of his $260 budget in the next 40 picks. Picks ranged greatly, but included Mariano, coming off of his serious knee injury, as well as injury question marks David Ortiz (since announced out for the beginning of the season with heel inflammation) and Yankee outfielder Curtis Granderson, who is out until May with a broken forearm. Spencer then was quiet for the next 50 picks, but was disciplined enough to have money to outbid folks on the $1-$2 players at the end of the draft.
Best pick: Curtis Granderson, $16. Granted, Granderson is injured, but since it is a bone injury the recovery time frame is much clearer than, say, Mark Teixeira's wrist. Healthy, Granderson would have likely been a $25-$30 player, and he's missing much less than half a season. By my math, that means Spencer did well there.
Worst pick: Howie Kendrick, $15. Howie Kendrick at $15 isn't a terrible price, but it means that Spencer was spending $15 of his remaining $38 on a second basemen while there were still many similar players remaining. David Ortiz was a big gamble, given the question marks surrounding his Achilles, as well.

Continuing the trend of teams spending money in bunches, Taylor picked up Evan Longoria as the 8th player nominated in the auction for $30, and quickly followed with Dustin Pedroia ($35) and Jeff Weaver ($26). Taylor was quiet for awhile following Weaver, but picked up Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, and Paul Konerko in quick succession.  Taylor spaced his picks out fairly well from then on, focusing on snagging bargains as they came up, with the occasional slight overpay for starting pitching, which appears to be inevitable in our league. He also grabbed super prospect Jurickson Profar for $6, hoping for an opportunity to present itself in Texas.
Best pick: Josh Johnson, $13. Johnson may very well blow up and be a disaster this year as he transitions to the AL East, but most of the pitchers in the $5-$15 range could end up worthless as well. Few have the Cy Young potential that Johnson has, though.
Worst pick: Jered Weaver, $26. Somehow, Jered Weaver puts up good a good ERA and WHIP, despite mediocre strikeout rates. Even if that continues, Weaver is effectively a three category pitcher at this point, despite his reputation as an ace. His K/9 has steadily fallen since his elite 2010 (9.35) and was actually below league average in 2012 (6.77).

Mark was the 6th player to draft a player, grabbing Felix Hernandez who was the 8th nominated player for $33. Mark picked up three of the five players going from 48-52, and appeared to get a solid value in Matt Wieters for $14. Catcher was fairly well picked over by keepers and Wieters was head and shoulders above the other catchers available, so to get him for $14 was very nice. Throughout the rest of the draft Mark was consistently active, avoiding any big runs or conspicuous absences. Mark Teixeira at $13 could either provide an excellent, cheap power source or he could be a $13 waste of money, given how hard wrist injuries are to predict, particularly for power hitters.
Best pick: Matt Wieters,$14. See above. Nelson Cruz at $24 could also return solid value, if Cruz can reverse some of his 2012 decline and return to 25+ home runs. He does have the BioGenesis storyline lurking, though.
Worst pick: Michael Bourn, $31. Not quite sure what happened here, but the first elite speed player managed to kick off a brutal bidding war. Bourn ended up as the second highest paid outfielder, trailing only Jose Bautista at $37.  Thirty one dollars for a player who only contributes in two categories is a huge reach, to me.

Luke was the 7th manager to draft a player, snagging R.A. Dickey at the relative bargain of $22. With other pitchers in this tier going for north of $25, except for CC Sabathia, Dickey is a huge bargain. Unlike CC, Dickey also does not have any injury question marks, except for the fact that he's pitched his entire career without an ulnar collateral ligament, which really ought to be extremely important for any pitcher, according to all kinds of specialists. Despite not having his UCL, the ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery, Dickey has been pitching without issue for his entire life, so it popping up now seems awfully unlikely. Generally speaking, Luke was at the extremes of the age spectrum, going with either very old or very young players.  Jeter, Ichiro, Balfour, Swisher, Youkilis, and Pettitte bring up the ranks for the old guys, while Perez, Giavotella, Straily, Griffin, Hicks, and Bauer all retain rookie eligibility or lost it last year.
Best pick: Dickey, $22. See above, but if Dickey can even match his 2011 line, Luke should be turning an awfully nice profit.
Worst pick: No one, $12. Luke left $12 on the table, more than everyone else combined. Some of this can probably be attributed to his technical difficulties, but $12 can go a long, long way in an auction. Aaron Hicks, $9. Hicks made a splash by hitting 3 home runs in a game and looks like he could win the Twins CF job for opening day. Hicks hasn't played above AA, though, and relied on a high BABIP to maintain a passable average. He could go double digits in homers and steals, but hit .240. Given that Drew Stubbs went for 1/3 of the price, it is hard to find much value there. In his defense, though, since Luke had money to spend at that point in the draft, this is hardly a terrible pick given the circumstances.

Finally, we get to Caleb. Twenty one players had been nominated and $588 spent on them before Caleb successfully snagged Alex Rios ($27). That figure is a bit above projections, but Rios showed last year that he can be an elite all around contributor. Caleb is also banking on a bounceback from Elvis Andrus, whose SB total dropped precipitously, and continued growth from Houston's second baseman Jose Altuve ($25). Caleb may have been burned by waiting so long. He is the only player who did not draft a $30 player and his top 3 drafted players (Rios, Andrus, and Altuve) all fall short of elite. Granted, Caleb did have a nice set of elite players to begin with, such as David Price and Prince Fielder, but an opportunity may have been missed by waiting so long.
Best pick: Jarrod Parker, $13. Parker is young and has considerable upside. His underlying numbers and his minor league stats indicate he could be much more than he showed in his rookie season.
Worst pick: Elvis Andrus, $23. Andrus used to be a consistent 30 stolen base player. Given that he is only 24, it is odd to see such a big decline in stolen bases, but he has filled out considerably in the last two years and doesn't seem to have the speed he one did. Not only did he only steal 21 bases last year, he was also caught 10 times. Last year Andrus was the 4th best shortstop, in a weak year for the position overall, finishing behind Jeter ($8) and Zobrist and Escobar, both of whom were kept.

ESPN Projected Standings

Minor edits to the standings: I noticed that I was not dealing with ties properly, so when there was a tie neither team received the half point they should have. As a result, Bill (+0.5), Taylor (+0.5), and Luke (+1) gain points from ties in home runs and saves. The overall standings remain unchanged,  however.

Thanks to Milly waking me nice and early this morning, we now have ESPN projected standings based on starters, instead of the entire roster, as they did during the draft.  Just a reminder, things can change an awful lot from these projections. While Caleb was projected to win and did so, I ended up in second and Luke ended up in third, despite being projected to finish last and fifth, respectively. I've also included playing time estimates (AB and IP), to give you an idea of which teams are being hurt by players projected to be part timers. Spencer, with Davis, Bautista, Lind and Ortiz with less than full time projections, and Andrew, with Smoak, Drew, and Ellsbury with limited PT, suffer the most for AB. Andrew and I lag behind in innings, although both of us are middle of the pack in K/9.

Without further ado, here are the raw numbers:

		Hitting
Rank	Team	AB	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
1	Bill	5961	0.279	856	218	832	159
5	Mark	6043	0.269	892	219	804	172
7	Spencer	5704	0.270	806	216	773	141
4	Kate	5963	0.270	829	209	775	108
6	Andrew	5894	0.278	893	229	834	138
2	Taylor	6038	0.283	825	196	807	144
3	Luke	6043	0.283	894	218	824	146
8	Caleb	5880	0.277	842	210	789	121

		Pitching
Rank	Team	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	W	SV
1	Bill	1050	3.499	1.227	978	72	105
5	Mark	1166	3.834	1.272	1069	77	78
7	Spencer	1100	3.542	1.235	1038	78	83
4	Kate	1188	3.563	1.212	1118	86	96
6	Andrew	1032	3.751	1.248	943	60	40
2	Taylor	1335	3.554	1.227	1154	96	46
3	Luke	1163	3.753	1.265	1029	76	46
8	Caleb	1307	3.574	1.265	1104	92	42

And the standings:

		Hitting
Rank	Team	AB	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
1	Bill	5961	6	5	5.5	7	7
5	Mark	6043	1	6	7	4	8
7	Spencer	5704	2	1	4	1	4
4	Kate	5963	3	3	2	2	1
6	Andrew	5894	5	7	8	8	3
2	Taylor	6038	7	2	1	5	5
3	Luke	6043	8	8	5.5	6	6
8	Caleb	5880	4	4	3	3	2

		Pitching
Rank	Team	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	W	SV
1	Bill	1050	8	6	2	2	8
5	Mark	1166	1	1	5	4	5
7	Spencer	1100	7	5	4	5	6
4	Kate	1188	5	8	7	6	7
6	Andrew	1032	3	4	1	1	1
2	Taylor	1335	6	7	8	8	3.5
3	Luke	1163	2	2	3	3	3.5
8	Caleb	1307	4	3	6	7	2

And finally, the overall standings:

Team	Hitting	Pitching	Total
Bill	30.5	26	56.5
Taylor	20	32.5	52.5
Luke	33.5	13.5	47
Kate	11	33	44
Mark	26	16	42
Andrew	31	10	41
Spencer	12	27	39
Caleb	16	22	38

Tighter than last year, across the board!  Looking forward to the year.  And congrats, Spencer, on not being last (barely)!

Who has the best keepers? It all depends on who you ask

For my draft board, I'm using a composite of a few projections.  I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the different projection systems viewed our keepers.

First, a few assumptions.  Many of these systems had back end keepers listed as negative values. In order to prevent very strange things from happening to the overall valuations, I've simply listed players as being worth $0 if the projection has the below $0. Second, these values are calculated assuming 5 SP, 2 RP, 1 P - which matches the way we tend to fill out our rosters.  For whatever reason, a lot of these projection systems seem to think you can go all middle relievers and be competitive in pitching, despite what common sense would tell you.  I think it may have something to do with many of them being very conservative about wins.  While wins are inherently hard to predict, I think the conservative projections minimize the difference in reliever wins and starter wins.

To start out, Luke is #1 in two of the three projections. Unsurprisingly, Mike Trout leads the way.  Depressingly, the value of Mike Trout surpasses the total value of keepers for 5 of the 7 other teams, just edging out Andrew and Mark, who come in 4th and 5th, respectively.

Taylor comes in at #2, thanks to his impressive array of value keepers, all at $11 or lower. ESPN's projections are unfavorable for de Aza and Escobar, in particular, but Taylor's overall value is fairly consistent across all three projections.  Across the board, all three systems rate Cespedes as Taylor's best keeper.

As far as my keepers go, it all depends on who you believe. ESPN projections adore my keepers, in part because those values seem to highly value elite players, and have me at 2nd overall in terms of value.  Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand, is not a fan of Beltre, Butler, or Santana, and pegs me at having the second WORST value overall. BP actually has those three players as providing negative value, with their salaries outstripping expected returns by almost $10.  The total difference in valuation is an astounding $50. All three agree that Edwin Encarnacion is by far my best keeper.

In fourth we have Andrew, Mr. Consistency, despite his former team name. Amazingly, there is a $4 difference between his most favorable projection (ESPN) and his least favorable (BP). In fact, all of his players are remarkably consistent, falling in a fairly tight window of values.  BP departs from the other two by rating Ellsbury as a positive and is very down on Willingham (but still projects value), but otherwise there is a great deal of consensus.  Alex Gordon comes in at #1 in all three projections.

In fifth, we have Mark's keepers, led by Austin Jackson at $6. None of the other players provide a substantial amount of value individually, but he also has no real holes in his keepers. Mark also is in good shape to fill difficult positions. Both outfield and firstbase were decimated by large numbers of kept players, plus relief pitcher and shortstop are always a disaster.  To top it off, Zobrist's ability to play SS, 2B, and OF gives him spectacular flexibility in the draft to pick up values as he sees them, without worrying as much about positional eligibility.

In sixth, Caleb stockpiles elite players, but also pays a good deal for them.  While that does limit his upside, he has an enviable core of an elite first baseman, starting pitcher, and catcher to build around. Prince Fielder is rated as his top keeper, followed closely by Price and Milone.

Kate comes in at 7th.  In her case, her overall valuation is hurt by a very low rating from Baseball Prospectus, how does not see good things coming for Scherzer (negative value overall) or Viciedo. She can take solace in the fact that the other two projections have her keepers much more highly rated, with solid returns for Peavy and Victor Martinez, her best keeper overall. She also had the second highest amount of variability in her keeper values.  As interesting note, Ian Kinsler is her most consistently valued player, something that shocked me considering how up and down his career has been.  However, all three projections have him in a $3 window.  His actual production over the past several years has not been nearly so consistent, though, and Kinsler could provide anything between $15 worth of value and a $5 loss without me being too surprised.

Finally, we come to Spencer. Spencer has some nice value, particularly in Desmond Jennings. Unfortunately for Spencer, Steamer projections really don't like his keepers - rating them as only providing a meager $2. They are very low on Anderson ($3 value) and don't rank Ogando.

2013 Keepers are in!

The 2013 keepers are in now, and I've updated their salaries to reflect multi-year keepers and free agents.  We only have two multi-year keepers, a record low.  Taylor kept Yoenis Cespedes for two years at $11, and Luke kept Mike Trout for three years at $19. Also, we have no dead money this year, as no one on a multiyear deal was cut.

Prince Fielder ($30) was the most expensive keeper, followed closely by Robinson Cano ($29) and the second year of Ellsbury's two year deal from 2011 ($29). Teams on average spent $60, although there is a lot of divergence between different teams.  Taylor went with the all value approach, despite opting for a two year deal with Cespedes, and only spent $28 on his five players.  Amazingly, those five players include two top 15 outfielders, a top 5 or so closer, and a rock solid starting pitcher, all for less than three individual players went for in the draft.

Also, despite being passed around like our fantasy version of Edwin Jackson, Manny Machado did not end up getting kept by Mark.  Nor did Josh Reddick by Kate, who was included in the swap for Edwin Encarnacion along with Ian Kinsler and Jake Peavy. Otherwise, all the players involved in trades were kept, including a last minute deal between Andrew and Taylor that sent Alcides Escobar ($1) and Doug Fister ($4) for Alex Gordon ($6), who is in the second year of a two year deal.

Positionally, first base and outfield lead the way.  A total of seven first basemen were kept (including Trumbo, who is also outfield eligible), and Bill kept three players who can only play first (Hosmer, Butler, and Encarnacion), filling both his infield and utility spots.  But watch out for that power, Bill's five keepers project to hit 145 home runs, and even top Luke's projected offensive production from his keepers in all categories but steals. Albert Pujols remains available at the top of the first base list, but otherwise,

The situation may be worse at outfield. Of the top 10 per ESPN rankings, eight are kept, leaving only injury question mark Jose Bautista and new AL player Michael Bourn available in the draft. Ellsbury, Hamilton, Jones, and Zobrist are all reasonably close to their ESPN valuations, but there is considerable value from Trout, Gordon, De Aza, Jennings, Jackson, and Cespedes.

Another thin position will be third base, with four starters kept.  Beltre is really the only one you could consider a top tier third basemen, and is paid as such, and while middle tier third base options such as Lawrie, Middlebrooks, or Moustakas don't offer massive amounts of value the outfield keepers do, the picking are slim if you don't have a third basemen in the fold.  Head and shoulders above everyone else at the position is Miguel Cabrera, but he is coming off of one of his best fantasy seasons of his career and went for a record setting $44 last year.  Evan Longoria is also available, but he is coming off of a lost season due to hamstring woes.  After that, things get ugly, with out of nowhere player Kyle Seager at #6 and very, very young rookie Manny Machado at #7.  At third base, it may be go big or go home.

One week to the draft!  Now that keepers are in, it is time to finalize those boards and come up with a plan of attack.  Good luck to everyone.

Bill!

The hall of champions must be updated!  And no Shame! for Spencer.

Congratulations, Caleb

Well, somehow Caleb managed to survive major injuries to Bautista, Middlebrooks, and Morrow, as well as monstrous dump trades made by me and Bill, to win his 2nd title in a row. Can we start talking Dynasty yet?

Having finished in 3rd place, I am STILL the only person in this league to appear nowhere in the Hall of Champions (Taylor is not in for baseball, but is in for football).

Yowza

What  a pennant race.  Is Caleb going to hold on?