Thursday, March 26, 2009
Enjoy, Taylor
Justin Duchscherer (elbow) didn't last an inning of a minor league game Thursday and is "virtually certain" to open the regular season on the disabled list
ESPN Projected Standings
This table has been updated. I incorrectly had Jose Guillen's stats twice, replacing Luke Scott's stats. Although their totals are similar, Luke Scott has less playing time, so this hurts Taylor most in RBI, where he goes from 7 points to 4.
A few caveats about the standings. First off, Caleb is projected to exceed his IP count by 40 innings. Also, because I didn't factor in backups, teams starting injury prone (or currently injured) players simply don't have as many counting stats. The one exception I made was that I had 2 CI for Caleb - Darric Barton and Ryan Garko, because neither was projected to get much playing time. Also, I don't think the ESPN standings are gospel. They probably overrate older players, assuming they will continue at past levels of performance, so my offense totals in particular may be overrated, as I have Konerko and Dye and major parts of my offense. Finally WHIP is very, very close in the 4 to 7 point range, with Spencer, Kate, Caleb, and I all having WHIPs of 1.24 or 1.25, but mine is projected to be the lowest by a tiny bit, so I ended up with the extra 3 points.
| R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | K | W | SV | ERA | WHIP | Total | |
| Bill | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 62 |
| Taylor | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| Caleb | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 47 |
| Kate | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 44 |
| Luke | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 44 |
| Mark | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 41 |
| Spencer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 39 |
| Andrew | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 32 |
A few caveats about the standings. First off, Caleb is projected to exceed his IP count by 40 innings. Also, because I didn't factor in backups, teams starting injury prone (or currently injured) players simply don't have as many counting stats. The one exception I made was that I had 2 CI for Caleb - Darric Barton and Ryan Garko, because neither was projected to get much playing time. Also, I don't think the ESPN standings are gospel. They probably overrate older players, assuming they will continue at past levels of performance, so my offense totals in particular may be overrated, as I have Konerko and Dye and major parts of my offense. Finally WHIP is very, very close in the 4 to 7 point range, with Spencer, Kate, Caleb, and I all having WHIPs of 1.24 or 1.25, but mine is projected to be the lowest by a tiny bit, so I ended up with the extra 3 points.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Balance
As Mark goes through his projections category by category (I have my own done, but don't want to steal his thunder), I thought I'd post something based on the ESPN projections. Let's take a look at where teams are getting their points.
Positive numbers are teams that are hitting focused, while negative numbers are teams that are pitching focused. Amazingly, despite having Teixeria and A-Rod, Spencer still tilts towards pitching. This is mostly an artifact of his extremely weak middle infielders (Casilla, Izturis, and Punto). Taylor, on the other hand, tilts towards pitching because of an unbelieably strong staff, with the top two closers and two upper tier strikeout pitchers, in Greinke and Kazmir. Mark's team is the most offensive (you would thought it would be Spencer, what with A-Rod and all), but that is because of a very weak pitching staff (projected 12 points out of 40), finishing in the bottom two in all pitching categories but wins and ERA. We'll see how the other projections treat Mark's team, but ESPN hates his pitching staff.
Congrats to Kate for putting together the most balanced team (and projected to be reasonably competitive as well), with only a one projected point of difference.
| Difference | |
| Bill | 10 |
| Mark | 16 |
| Andrew | 8 |
| Taylor | -17 |
| Spencer | -15 |
| Kate | -1 |
| Caleb | -6 |
| Luke | 5 |
Positive numbers are teams that are hitting focused, while negative numbers are teams that are pitching focused. Amazingly, despite having Teixeria and A-Rod, Spencer still tilts towards pitching. This is mostly an artifact of his extremely weak middle infielders (Casilla, Izturis, and Punto). Taylor, on the other hand, tilts towards pitching because of an unbelieably strong staff, with the top two closers and two upper tier strikeout pitchers, in Greinke and Kazmir. Mark's team is the most offensive (you would thought it would be Spencer, what with A-Rod and all), but that is because of a very weak pitching staff (projected 12 points out of 40), finishing in the bottom two in all pitching categories but wins and ERA. We'll see how the other projections treat Mark's team, but ESPN hates his pitching staff.
Congrats to Kate for putting together the most balanced team (and projected to be reasonably competitive as well), with only a one projected point of difference.
Waivers
What's the deal with waivers? Are we just doing the yahoo thing (i.e. pick up anyone who is a FA whenever we want, waivers are for players that are dropped, added to the league)?
Projections - Home Runs
The first installment of the 2009 projections will be in home runs (being my best category, I thought it appropriate). I had to just make my best guess with the starting lineups, but I felt they were pretty straight forward for the most part.
To calculate HRs, I used the average of the PECOTA and Chone projection systems. As a league total, PECOTA predicts 1,525 HRs and Chone 1,618. Caleb's team had the largest difference in the projection systems, with Chone predicting 188 and PECOTA 151 (+37). Players with a large difference between Chone and PECOTA were Weiters (-16), Posada (+9), Ortiz (+9), A-Rod (+9), and Snider (-9).
HRs
edit: I realized that I did not give Bill a 3b in my original projections... Now with Wood (20 HRs), he is the projected HR winner.
Certainly have to give Taylor props for ending up with the third best HR projection. Even though all of the big sluggers were kept, 10 of his 12 position starters are projected with double digit homeruns and 6 of the 12 projected at 19+.
To calculate HRs, I used the average of the PECOTA and Chone projection systems. As a league total, PECOTA predicts 1,525 HRs and Chone 1,618. Caleb's team had the largest difference in the projection systems, with Chone predicting 188 and PECOTA 151 (+37). Players with a large difference between Chone and PECOTA were Weiters (-16), Posada (+9), Ortiz (+9), A-Rod (+9), and Snider (-9).
HRs
| Bill | 228.0 |
| Mark | 222.0 |
| Taylor | 207.5 |
| Andrew | 198.0 |
| Luke | 192.0 |
| Kate | 181.5 |
| Spencer | 173.0 |
| Caleb | 169.5 |
edit: I realized that I did not give Bill a 3b in my original projections... Now with Wood (20 HRs), he is the projected HR winner.
Certainly have to give Taylor props for ending up with the third best HR projection. Even though all of the big sluggers were kept, 10 of his 12 position starters are projected with double digit homeruns and 6 of the 12 projected at 19+.
Draft Results
I uploaded the draft results to the Yahoo (!!!) league page. There were two players that I could not locate - Chad Cordero and Donnie Murphy. Taylor and Bill get proxies for the time being.
edit: Donnie Murphy was used as a proxy for David Murphy, draft results corrected
Also, the Draft Results on the Yahoo page are not accurate to the round. I just added the players to each team without regard the round they were supposed to be drafted in (I couldn't do the trades predraft) so the "official" results are below:
edit: Donnie Murphy was used as a proxy for David Murphy, draft results corrected
Also, the Draft Results on the Yahoo page are not accurate to the round. I just added the players to each team without regard the round they were supposed to be drafted in (I couldn't do the trades predraft) so the "official" results are below:
| R1 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Miguel Cabrera |
| R2 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Carl Crawford |
| R3 P3 | Andrew McDowell | A.J. Burnett |
| R4 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Brian Fuentes |
| R5 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Justin Verlander |
| R6 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Frank Francisco |
| R7 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Mike Aviles |
| R8 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Xavier Nady |
| R9 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Alex Rios |
| R10 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Adam Lind |
| R11 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Brandon Morrow |
| R12 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Mark Buehrle |
| R13 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Ty Wigginton |
| R14 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Rafael Perez |
| R15 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Koji Uehara |
| R16 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Erick Aybar |
| R17 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Yuniesky Betancourt |
| R18 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Nick Swisher |
| R19 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Akinori Iwamura |
| R19 P4 * | Andrew McDowell | Manny Delcarmen |
| R20 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Kurt Suzuki |
| R22 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Jacoby Ellsbury |
| R23 P3 | Andrew McDowell | Evan Longoria |
| R24 P6 | Andrew McDowell | Matt Wieters |
| R1 P6 | Bill McDowell | Jason Bay |
| R2 P3 | Bill McDowell | Bobby Abreu |
| R3 P4 * | Bill McDowell | John Lackey |
| R3 P6 | Bill McDowell | Jermaine Dye |
| R4 P3 | Bill McDowell | Joakim Soria |
| R5 P6 | Bill McDowell | Scott Baker |
| R6 P3 | Bill McDowell | John Danks |
| R7 P6 | Bill McDowell | Paul Konerko |
| R8 P3 | Bill McDowell | Jered Weaver |
| R9 P6 | Bill McDowell | Dustin Pedroia |
| R10 P3 | Bill McDowell | Ian Kinsler |
| R11 P6 | Bill McDowell | Brandon Lyon |
| R12 P3 | Bill McDowell | Mike Jacobs |
| R13 P6 | Bill McDowell | Nick Markakis |
| R15 P6 | Bill McDowell | Brandon Wood |
| R16 P3 | Bill McDowell | B.J. Upton |
| R17 P6 | Bill McDowell | J.P. Howell |
| R18 P3 | Bill McDowell | Kendry Morales |
| R19 P6 | Bill McDowell | Jorge Posada |
| R20 P3 | Bill McDowell | Brett Anderson |
| R21 P6 | Bill McDowell | Mark Teahen |
| R22 P3 | Bill McDowell | David Murphy |
| R23 P6 | Bill McDowell | Alexei Ramirez |
| R24 P3 | Bill McDowell | Joey Devine |
| R1 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Ichiro Suzuki |
| R2 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Vladimir Guerrero |
| R3 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Victor Martinez |
| R4 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Michael Young |
| R5 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Kerry Wood |
| R6 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Roy Halladay |
| R7 P7 | Caleb Murphy | James Shields |
| R8 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Hank Blalock |
| R9 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Placido Polanco |
| R10 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Jhonny Peralta |
| R11 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Joe Saunders |
| R12 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Jason Kubel |
| R13 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Denard Span |
| R14 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Jesse Litsch |
| R15 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Ryan Garko |
| R16 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Takashi Saito |
| R17 P7 | Caleb Murphy | J.D. Drew |
| R18 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Clay Buchholz |
| R19 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Brad Penny |
| R20 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Daric Barton |
| R21 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Jarrod Saltalamaccia |
| R22 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Rich Hill |
| R23 P7 | Caleb Murphy | Chris Davis |
| R24 P2 | Caleb Murphy | Cliff Lee |
| R1 P2 | Kate Hopkins | CC Sabathia |
| R2 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Robinson Cano |
| R3 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Joe Mauer |
| R4 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Vernon Wells |
| R5 P2 | Kate Hopkins | B.J. Ryan |
| R6 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Howie Kendrick |
| R7 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Carlos Guillen |
| R8 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Jim Thome |
| R9 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Chien-Ming Wang |
| R10 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Melvin Mora |
| R11 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Jason Bartlett |
| R12 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Brad Ziegler |
| R13 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Jeremy Guthrie |
| R14 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Magglio Ordonez |
| R15 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Torii Hunter |
| R16 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Chris Ray |
| R17 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Jon Lester |
| R18 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Josh Fields |
| R19 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Juan Rivera |
| R20 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Justin Masterson |
| R21 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Brandon Inge |
| R22 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Marco Scutaro |
| R23 P2 | Kate Hopkins | Felix Pie |
| R24 P7 | Kate Hopkins | Shin-Soo Choo |
| R1 P4 | Luke Murphy | Matt Holliday |
| R2 P5 | Luke Murphy | David Ortiz |
| R4 P5 | Luke Murphy | Chone Figgins |
| R5 P4 | Luke Murphy | Bobby Jenks |
| R6 P5 | Luke Murphy | Daisuke Matsuzaka |
| R7 P4 | Luke Murphy | Orlando Cabrera |
| R8 P5 | Luke Murphy | Josh Beckett |
| R9 P4 | Luke Murphy | Jason Giambi |
| R10 P5 | Luke Murphy | Gavin Floyd |
| R11 P4 | Luke Murphy | Coco Crisp |
| R12 P5 | Luke Murphy | Hideki Matsui |
| R13 P4 | Luke Murphy | Jed Lowrie |
| R14 P5 | Luke Murphy | Andy Pettitte |
| R15 P4 | Luke Murphy | Dioner Navarro |
| R16 P5 | Luke Murphy | Aaron Hill |
| R17 P4 | Luke Murphy | Mike Lowell |
| R18 P5 | Luke Murphy | Anthony Reyes |
| R20 P5 | Luke Murphy | Octavio Dotel |
| R21 P3 * | Luke Murphy | Sean Gallagher |
| R21 P4 | Luke Murphy | Carlos Quentin |
| R22 P5 | Luke Murphy | Nelson Cruz |
| R23 P4 | Luke Murphy | Ervin Santana |
| R23 P5 * | Luke Murphy | Ben Francisco |
| R24 P5 | Luke Murphy | Taylor Teagarden |
| R1 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Grady Sizemore |
| R2 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Justin Morneau |
| R3 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Adrian Beltre |
| R4 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Brian Roberts |
| R5 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Derek Jeter |
| R5 P8 * | Mark Zocchi | Matt Garza |
| R6 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Gil Meche |
| R7 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Mark DeRosa |
| R8 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Jack Cust |
| R9 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Kelly Shoppach |
| R10 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Troy Percival |
| R11 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Curtis Granderson |
| R12 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Josh Hamilton |
| R13 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Elvis Andrus |
| R14 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Russell Branyan |
| R15 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Dan Wheeler |
| R16 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Kelvim Escobar |
| R17 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Joel Zumaya |
| R18 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Armando Galarraga |
| R19 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Nick Blackburn |
| R20 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Miguel Batista |
| R21 P5 | Mark Zocchi | Mark Lowe |
| R22 P4 | Mark Zocchi | Hideki Okajima |
| R24 P4 | Mark Zocchi | David Price |
| R1 P1 * | Spencer Wong | Mark Teixeira |
| R1 P8 | Spencer Wong | Alex Rodriguez |
| R2 P1 | Spencer Wong | Felix Hernandez |
| R3 P8 | Spencer Wong | Mariano Rivera |
| R6 P1 | Spencer Wong | Johnny Damon |
| R7 P8 | Spencer Wong | Billy Butler |
| R8 P1 | Spencer Wong | Delmon Young |
| R9 P8 | Spencer Wong | Andrew Sonnanstine |
| R10 P1 | Spencer Wong | Kevin Youkilis |
| R11 P8 | Spencer Wong | David DeJesus |
| R12 P1 | Spencer Wong | Fausto Carmona |
| R13 P8 | Spencer Wong | George Sherrill |
| R14 P1 | Spencer Wong | Jose Arredondo |
| R14 P3 * | Spencer Wong | Jeff Clement |
| R15 P8 | Spencer Wong | John Smoltz |
| R16 P1 | Spencer Wong | Alexi Casilla |
| R17 P8 | Spencer Wong | Cesar Izturis |
| R18 P1 | Spencer Wong | Francisco Liriano |
| R19 P8 | Spencer Wong | Nick Punto |
| R20 P1 | Spencer Wong | Travis Hafner |
| R21 P8 | Spencer Wong | A.J. Pierzynski |
| R22 P1 | Spencer Wong | Gary Sheffield |
| R23 P8 | Spencer Wong | Joba Chamberlain |
| R24 P1 | Spencer Wong | Travis Snider |
| R2 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Scott Kazmir |
| R3 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Jonathan Papelbon |
| R4 P1 * | Taylor Curtis | Joe Nathan |
| R4 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Mike Napoli |
| R5 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Alex Gordon |
| R6 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Erik Bedard |
| R7 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Pat Burrell |
| R8 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Carlos Gomez |
| R9 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Justin Duchscherer |
| R10 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Mark Ellis |
| R11 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Asdrubal Cabrera |
| R12 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Grant Balfour |
| R13 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Jose Guillen |
| R14 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Luke Scott |
| R15 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Franklin Gutierrez |
| R16 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Zack Greinke |
| R17 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Jeremy Bonderman |
| R18 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Chad Cordero |
| R19 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Dana Eveland |
| R20 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Carlos Pena |
| R21 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Kevin Slowey |
| R22 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Jose Lopez |
| R23 P1 | Taylor Curtis | Aubrey Huff |
| R24 P8 | Taylor Curtis | Adam Jones |
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Should we be worried about Mark?
A fantasy baseball blog might not be the best place to voice this concern, but I think ESPN's poor interface may have driven Mark to insanity. If you haven't been to the ESPN league page, give it a look.
http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=113928
It is a good thing that Kate is in the league now, otherwise there wouldn't be anyone in the league who also lives in Boston to check in on Mark's well being...
http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=113928
It is a good thing that Kate is in the league now, otherwise there wouldn't be anyone in the league who also lives in Boston to check in on Mark's well being...
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