It isn't likely, but Andrew does still have a path to victory, in part because we're going head to head in several categories, As of Monday morning, by lead is 7.5 points, but if everything breaks just right for Andrew, I see up to 10.5 net points for him (factoring in losses from me, and gains for him).
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
I am up 23 runs on Andrew, so that should be out of reach, especially with teams starting to sit players this last week of the season. Also, Andrew is leading in HR, so he has no points to gain there, and I have a 12 HR lead on Caleb which should remain safe. Finally, RBI. Andrew is 18 RBI behind me. All season long, there has been one week where he had 19 RBI more than me - with fewer starts likely, I think that is out of reach as well.
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
No Contest - No Change
First, two categories aren't really in play, runs and homers, while a third (RBI) is extremely unlikely.
Note: all numbers given in these tables will be for me to lose points, and Andrew to gain points.
| Bill | Andrew | |
| R | 23 | -23 |
| HR | 12 | NA |
| RBI | 18 | -18 |
Gains and Losses (not head to head) - 4.5 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| AVG | 0.0012 | 0.0024 |
| WHIP | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| ERA | 0.1 | 0.05 |
| K | 112 | 8 |
| SV | 8 | T |
I think there is a fair chance that I lose a point in batting average (.0012 ahead), but Andrew will likely stay put (.0024 behind), so there is another point. I may also lose a point in WHIP, with a narrow lead on Spencer (.005), however Andrew is likely to just stay put. The flip side of this is strikeouts - my lead is set (112) with the only real question being whether or not I can crack 9 K/9, while Andrew could gain a point on me by passing Taylor in Ks. Andrew could also pick up half a point by breaking a tie in saves with Caleb, but that will take some weirdness as he has 0 closers at the moment. I'm leaving this one off the tally. Finally, Andrew might pass Spencer in ERA (.05 behind), but it might take a couple blow ups from Spencer's staff to do it.
Head to Head - 6 Point Swing
| Bill | Andrew | |
| SB | 1, 3 | 2, 3 |
| W | T, 2 | T |
Finally, the big ones - wins and saves. Getting ahead of me in wins would net Andrew 1 point as we are tied at the moment, but if Spencer (2 wins back) can pass me as well, that'd be a 2 point swing for him. Similarly, Andrew, Spencer, and I are all going head to head in stolen bases. I'm leading the way at the moment, with one bag on Spencer and three on Andrew. If both Spencer and Andrew pass me, while Andrew simultaneously passes Spencer, that's a massive four point swing.
All told, I don't think Andrew is likely to win. But I am saying there's a chance. He can miss on a couple of these categories and still pull it off, but steals are an absolute must win.
