Bill, Luke, and I all made bold predictions this year. They were mostly embarrassing.
Luke
1)
Mike Trout ties or beats his 2013 performance
in at least FOUR out of five roto categories.
Trout’s R, RBI, and HR all went up. His average dropped a bit and his SB numbers had to be disappointing for his owners. 3/5 ain’t bad, but it ain’t enough to get points for this one. Luke traded Trout to Andrew in a whopper of a trade mid-season and will never be able to watch him play again without thinking about it.
Trout’s R, RBI, and HR all went up. His average dropped a bit and his SB numbers had to be disappointing for his owners. 3/5 ain’t bad, but it ain’t enough to get points for this one. Luke traded Trout to Andrew in a whopper of a trade mid-season and will never be able to watch him play again without thinking about it.
2)
My team bats above .280.
Luke could have won this if he’d predicted that he’d win batting average pretty handily, despite starting Chris Davis and his .196 average nearly all season. He finished at .270 overall. I’m not willing to do the math to see where he would have finished if he’d had a league average AVG from Davis, but I’m sure he’ll do it for us. There have been .280 teams in our league in the past, but in the era of strikeouts it’s awfully hard to pull off.
Luke could have won this if he’d predicted that he’d win batting average pretty handily, despite starting Chris Davis and his .196 average nearly all season. He finished at .270 overall. I’m not willing to do the math to see where he would have finished if he’d had a league average AVG from Davis, but I’m sure he’ll do it for us. There have been .280 teams in our league in the past, but in the era of strikeouts it’s awfully hard to pull off.
3)
I'm going to re-try one of my 2013 picks and
say R.A. Dickey wins 20 games
Luke continued his abusive relationship with Dickey, who won 14 games and scored lower on Player Rate than Carlos Carrasco, Wade Davis, and Wei-Yin Chen. Which is not to say he had a bad year, but still.
Luke continued his abusive relationship with Dickey, who won 14 games and scored lower on Player Rate than Carlos Carrasco, Wade Davis, and Wei-Yin Chen. Which is not to say he had a bad year, but still.
4)
David Freese gets at least 100 RBIs.
Oh man, David Freese is terrible. I actually had no idea that he ended up hitting .260 on the season and was actually serviceable as a starter in the 2nd half, but 100 RBI didn’t come close to happening.
Oh man, David Freese is terrible. I actually had no idea that he ended up hitting .260 on the season and was actually serviceable as a starter in the 2nd half, but 100 RBI didn’t come close to happening.
5)
Bogaerts, Kendrick, Brantley, and Castellanos
combine for at least 100 HR+SB.
SO CLOSE. Luke got his 50 HRs from these guys but they fell short in SB, bringing him to 91 total. Bogaerts’ disappointing season is largely to blame, as he put up similar HR/SB numbers to Castellanos. Kendrick was his usual self and Brantley broke out with a 20/20 season, but it wasn’t enough.
SO CLOSE. Luke got his 50 HRs from these guys but they fell short in SB, bringing him to 91 total. Bogaerts’ disappointing season is largely to blame, as he put up similar HR/SB numbers to Castellanos. Kendrick was his usual self and Brantley broke out with a 20/20 season, but it wasn’t enough.
Luke was 0/5
1) Jason Castro finishes as a top 3 catcher in
our league, by ESPN's rankings.
Castro was a pretty big disappointment this year after his breakout campaign in 2013. I traded Nick Swisher for him in the pre-season, which was certainly no big loss, but I could have had better production from free agents Dioner Navarro or Kurt Suzuki. Castro finished 12th on Player Rater.
Castro was a pretty big disappointment this year after his breakout campaign in 2013. I traded Nick Swisher for him in the pre-season, which was certainly no big loss, but I could have had better production from free agents Dioner Navarro or Kurt Suzuki. Castro finished 12th on Player Rater.
2) Adam Lind hits at least .285 and finishes
the season with at least 30 HR.
Lind hit .321!! With 6 HR. 30 HR was absolutely nuts on my part, especially for a guy who only got 290 AB and sits vs. lefties. 0/2.
Lind hit .321!! With 6 HR. 30 HR was absolutely nuts on my part, especially for a guy who only got 290 AB and sits vs. lefties. 0/2.
3) Adrian Beltre and Shin Soo Choo combine for
>380 R+RBI.
Nope. 254 total. Choo was an immense disappointment this year and I largely blame him and Justin Masterson for my lack of success. Choo and the rest of the Rangers brought down Beltre’s R/RBI a bit, but he still only provided 156 total which is not even close to half of 380. This was far off.
Nope. 254 total. Choo was an immense disappointment this year and I largely blame him and Justin Masterson for my lack of success. Choo and the rest of the Rangers brought down Beltre’s R/RBI a bit, but he still only provided 156 total which is not even close to half of 380. This was far off.
4) Norichika Aoki and Kole Calhoun combine for
>70 HR+SB.
This is similarly embarrassing. 40 HR and SB total. I didn’t expect many HR from Aoki but he went from 8 in 2013 to 1 in 2014. I thought Calhoun would steal 20 this year. Oh well.
This is similarly embarrassing. 40 HR and SB total. I didn’t expect many HR from Aoki but he went from 8 in 2013 to 1 in 2014. I thought Calhoun would steal 20 this year. Oh well.
5) One of Pineda, Skaggs, and Hutchison will
finish among the top 25 SPs, by ESPN's rankings.
I was closest on this. If
Pineda had pitched even one more month with similar numbers to the end of the
season he would have cracked the top 25 with ease. He finished 33rd
on player rate after missing most of the year, and being a dirty dirty cheater.
He was 7th in PR for the last 30 days of the season, so I would have
loved to see what he could do over the full year. Hutch was insanely
inconsistent but still finished in the 40s on PR. Skaggs wasn’t in the top 50
and had TJS.
I was 0/5.
Bill
1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
Straight up winner. Dozier beat both guys in each
individual category and in total, with a 23/21 season. Good call.
2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
This was a very bold prediction, because Ricky Nolasco is terrible. Credit is due for the boldness. It’s a little tough to cross-reference the list of eligible pitchers with Player Rater, but it appears that Hughes was the runaway winner in the category, with Buerhle and Odorizzi distant 2nd and 3rd. Nolasco finished approximately 145th on Player Rater. It took me a long time to find him. His Player Rate score was -3.25. He was really bad. Morrow and Erasmo weren’t far off from him. So it goes with the <$3 pitchers.
3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Gray struck out 183 in 219 innings, with a (likely somewhat disappointing) K/9 of 7.52. Salazar only pitched 110 innings, and struck out 120 for a K/9 of 9.82. It would have taken 183 innings from Salazar to hit 200 Ks. Even if you count his AAA numbers he doesn’t get close to 200, so no dice here.
2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
This was a very bold prediction, because Ricky Nolasco is terrible. Credit is due for the boldness. It’s a little tough to cross-reference the list of eligible pitchers with Player Rater, but it appears that Hughes was the runaway winner in the category, with Buerhle and Odorizzi distant 2nd and 3rd. Nolasco finished approximately 145th on Player Rater. It took me a long time to find him. His Player Rate score was -3.25. He was really bad. Morrow and Erasmo weren’t far off from him. So it goes with the <$3 pitchers.
3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Gray struck out 183 in 219 innings, with a (likely somewhat disappointing) K/9 of 7.52. Salazar only pitched 110 innings, and struck out 120 for a K/9 of 9.82. It would have taken 183 innings from Salazar to hit 200 Ks. Even if you count his AAA numbers he doesn’t get close to 200, so no dice here.
4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova made four bad starts in April before undergoing TJS. I really hate pitchers.
5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater
Prior to
researching this I realized I had NO idea which of these three guys was better
in 2014. Turns out, by ESPN’s numbers, Eaton was. I loved Eaton in the pre-season
and I think I bid Bill up quite a bit in the draft, then lost track of him
after some injuries and a disappointing first half. He ended the season with a .300
average, 15 steals, and solid run production (Jose Abreu says you’re welcome).
Desmond Jennings continues to frustrate everyone who owns him, and Coco’s 2013
pixie dust wore off.
Bill was 2/5 and wins Bold
Predictions this year as well. F$%&ing Bill.
