I sat down to write bold predictions, and you won't believe what happened next!!!

Like Caleb, I also haven't had a lot of time to come up with great bold predictions but wanted to at least throw something together before the AL games get going. Last year I was 0 for 5. Either I'm too bold or just stupid. Anyway, here goes...

1) Mike Trout ties or beats his 2013 performance in at least FOUR out of five roto categories. Last year I predicted he would beat his 2012 performance in at least 2 categories and he came up short, only surpassing his 2012 RBI total. Well, this year obviously the targets are lower, and I want to be bold, so I'm going with four. For the record, that's 109 runs, 27 HRs, 97 RBIs, 33 SB, and a .3226 average.

2) My team bats above .280. I think this is bold enough, as if I remember correctly usually we only have 1, sometimes 0 teams that end up batting better than .280. I targeted high average batters because I was intent on making Jonathan Villar my shortstop, and was scared of the possibility that he bats .220. Thanks to Caleb, I don't really own anybody that I think is capable of torpedoing my average. I'm going to give myself a caveat here though, and say that I will count this prediction as true if EITHER my team's final average is >.280, or if my opening day starting lineup ends the season with a combined average >.280 (that's Gomes, Davis, Kendrick, Bogaerts, Jeter, EE, Trout, Martin, Markakis, Brantley, and Ortiz). Just giving myself that out because I could easily end up trading average for power or pitching at some point.

3) I'm going to re-try one of my 2013 picks and say R.A. Dickey wins 20 games.

4) David Freese gets at least 100 RBIs. Batting 4th or 5th behind Calhoun, Trout, Pujols, and sometimes Hamilton, I'm expecting him to get a lot of opportunities. I think last year was a bad luck aberration. Freese's batted ball distance held up last year. Also, as much as Angels Stadium is not a hitter's park, it does play better than Busch for righties.

5) Bogaerts, Kendrick, Brantley, and Castellanos combine for at least 100 HR+SB.

Caleb's Bold Predictions

I'm sitting around all morning waiting for the afternoon's baseball games, so I thought I'd try to throw a couple of bold predictions together last minute. Not much time to flesh this out before the two year old makes me play with trains again, but at least I'll have something on record.

1) Jason Castro finishes as a top 3 catcher in our league, by ESPN's rankings.

2) Adam Lind hits at least .285 and finishes the season with at least 30 HR.

3) Adrian Beltre and Shin Soo Choo combine for >380 R+RBI.

4) Norichika Aoki and Kole Calhoun combine for >70 HR+SB.

5) One of Pineda, Skaggs, and Hutchison will finish among the top 25 SPs, by ESPN's rankings.

Omar Infante is on the block

I'm looking to trade Omar Infante for a cheap starting pitcher. He MIGHT get surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow and be out a couple months. I actually didn't know about his injury when I nominated him in the draft expecting him to go for $5 or $6. If you've got the pitching depth to spare and can take on some risk, Infante could be a nice boost to your batting average while pitching in 15-20 HR+SB and acceptable run production. I'm really just looking for any $1-3 starting pitcher that I don't hate.

Bill's Bold Predictions

I really enjoyed this series last year, so I wanted to keep it going again.

1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
Either this one seems totally nuts, if you're going by 2014 draft values, or fairly tame, if you're looking at 2013 numbers. Kinsler and Zobrist are both ranked well ahead of Dozier by experts, ADP, and us, going for $24 and $20 respectively, compared to Dozier's $6. However, Dozier had 18 HR and 14 SB last year in a breakout season for the Twins, while Kinsler had 13 HR and 15 SB and Zobrist had 12 HR and 11 SB.

2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
I was shocked when Nolasco went for only $1. Although he hasn't been the most exciting player over the last few years, he showed real improvement in 2013 with his swinging strike rate jumping to 10.5%, rivaling his heyday with the Marlins when he struck out 8+ batters/9. The swinging strike rate, coupled with his average zone swing rate, projects him for about 8.5 K/9 in 2013, a nice bump from the 7.5 K/9 he actually had. Add in a nice park and good walk rates, and you have a solid, almost every week starter.
For the record, his competition is: Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Skaggs, Erik Johnson, Phil Hughes, Bud Norris, Hector Santiago, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle
Plus the following injured/demoted players, who are unlikely to compete due to PT: Trevor Bauer, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Derek Holland

3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Danny Salazar had a 11.25 K/9 last year, which is supported by a spectacular 14.5% swinging strike rate, which would have been #1 in the majors by almost 2 percentage points had he qualified. He does it off of a spectacular fastball (96-97, touching 99) that was the best for a starter with 50 IP. The question for Salazar will be whether he can get enough innings - at the low end of his inning cap (160 IP), he'll need to match his 2013 K/9 to hit 200 K. Gray is coming off an equally impressive debut, albeit through totally different ways. Although his swinging strike rate is above average (9.5%), Gray gets a lot more strikeouts than you'd expect, thanks to a very low swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, much like Clay Buchholz last year. Unlike Salazar, Gray is looking at an uncapped season, so he doesn't need to be as spectacular to hit 200. Both have the skills to maintain their high K rates, and if they stay healthy, could be #1s.

4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova was utterly dominant down the stretch last year, posting a 2.78 ERA in the second half, despite a weak September. Both his underlying numbers (9.5% swinging strike rate, 60.1% zone swing rate) and his spectacular spring so far (21 K, 2 BB in 19 IP) indicate further strikeout upside. Nova was above average in K/9, BB/9, and inducing grounders. That's a nice combo to have.

5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater
Coming in to the 2013 season, Eaton was a highly anticipated prospect with the Diamondbacks. However, he got hurt in spring training and never really had a crack at full time playing time. He's only a year removed from stealing 46 bases in the minors and has good plate discipline, given him lots of opportunities. Most projections have him around 20 SB (Zips, Steamer, ESPN), but he has 40 SB upside, especially when paired with a manager willing to give him the green light.

Revisiting My 2013 Bold Predictions
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. Nova actually easily beat this bold prediction, as he was the #2 SP behind Kuroda, thanks in part to Sabathia's sudden downturn. I guess I'm doubling down on Nova.

2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs.
Reynolds ended up with 21 home runs, as playing time evaporated in the second half.

3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. EE actually outproduced both Pujols and Fielder, and was only topped by Chris Davis at first. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.

4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher.
Nope, although it wasn't who you might have expected ahead of him. A spectacular second half from VMart catapulted him to the #1 spot, while catcher in name only Mike Napoli held down #2. It was fairly close, though, with

5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not sooner, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters.
Nope. Guess straight fastballs are hittable, even when they're 100 MPH. I was right to doubt Papa Grande, but Benoit took the job and ran with it. Thank God I didn't cut Wil Myers instead of Rondon midseason. That would have cost me a championship!

Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Not only was Cobb the #2 starter on the Rays, he almost outperformed David Price, as both suffered through excellent, but injury shortened seasons. Cobb managed this despite throwing 43 fewer innings than Price.

Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Both Gardner (#35 mixed) and Crisp (#19 mixed) easily outperformed Bourn (#49 mixed)
Overall, I went 4/7, if you want to count my bonus questions, which, ironically, I thought were too unlikely to include in my main 5 (2/5 without).

Looking to trade a Catcher

I'd like to trade either Joe Mauer or Jason Castro. Let me know if you're interested. I'm mostly looking for an outfielder or first baseman.

I'd also like my players to stop getting injured, at least until the season starts. Let me know if you can do anything about that.

Projected Standings: Steamer

	Hitting	PA	Pitching	IP	Total
Andrew	23.5	6522	30	1116	53.5
Spencer	28	6326	23.5	1149	51.5
Bill	25	6521	26	1059	51
Caleb	31	6180	18.5	1074	49.5
Kate	15.5	6250	34	1145	49.5
Luke	26	6116	13	951	39
Taylor	17	6310	21.5	1087	38.5
Mark	14	5686	13.5	1084	27.5

I've included playing time estimates (plate appearances and IP) to provide some background. It looks like a mess at the top.

Updated the standings to fix some issues with ties with pitching stats. Almost everyone benefited a little bit, so the overall standings look the same.

Secret baby?

So many mysteries from last night's draft...

what DID Bill do for half an hour?  Lower case sorry?

why DID Spencer spend $35 for Adam Jones?

WHY is there no analysis today on the blog?  You've changed McDowells.