2014 Bold Predictions, Revisited

Bill, Luke, and I all made bold predictions this year. They were mostly embarrassing. 

Luke

1)  Mike Trout ties or beats his 2013 performance in at least FOUR out of five roto categories. 
Trout’s R, RBI, and HR all went up.  His average dropped a bit and his SB numbers had to be disappointing for his owners. 3/5 ain’t bad, but it ain’t enough to get points for this one. Luke traded Trout to Andrew in a whopper of a trade mid-season and will never be able to watch him play again without thinking about it.

2)  My team bats above .280.
Luke could have won this if he’d predicted that he’d win batting average pretty handily, despite starting Chris Davis and his .196 average nearly all season. He finished at .270 overall. I’m not willing to do the math to see where he would have finished if he’d had a league average AVG from Davis, but I’m sure he’ll do it for us. There have been .280 teams in our league in the past, but in the era of strikeouts it’s awfully hard to pull off.

3)  I'm going to re-try one of my 2013 picks and say R.A. Dickey wins 20 games
Luke continued his abusive relationship with Dickey, who won 14 games and scored lower on Player Rate than Carlos Carrasco, Wade Davis, and Wei-Yin Chen. Which is not to say he had a bad year, but still.

4)  David Freese gets at least 100 RBIs. 
Oh man, David Freese is terrible. I actually had no idea that he ended up hitting .260 on the season and was actually serviceable as a starter in the 2^nd half, but 100 RBI didn’t come close to happening.

5)  Bogaerts, Kendrick, Brantley, and Castellanos combine for at least 100 HR+SB.
SO CLOSE. Luke got his 50 HRs from these guys but they fell short in SB, bringing him to 91 total. Bogaerts’ disappointing season is largely to blame, as he put up similar HR/SB numbers to Castellanos. Kendrick was his usual self and Brantley broke out with a 20/20 season, but it wasn’t enough.

Luke was 0/5

Caleb: 

1) Jason Castro finishes as a top 3 catcher in our league, by ESPN's rankings.
Castro was a pretty big disappointment this year after his breakout campaign in 2013. I traded Nick Swisher for him in the pre-season, which was certainly no big loss, but I could have had better production from free agents Dioner Navarro or Kurt Suzuki. Castro finished 12^th on Player Rater.

2) Adam Lind hits at least .285 and finishes the season with at least 30 HR.
Lind hit .321!! With 6 HR. 30 HR was absolutely nuts on my part, especially for a guy who only got 290 AB and sits vs. lefties. 0/2.

3) Adrian Beltre and Shin Soo Choo combine for >380 R+RBI. 
Nope. 254 total. Choo was an immense disappointment this year and I largely blame him and Justin Masterson for my lack of success. Choo and the rest of the Rangers brought down Beltre’s R/RBI a bit, but he still only provided 156 total which is not even close to half of 380. This was far off.

4) Norichika Aoki and Kole Calhoun combine for >70 HR+SB.
This is similarly embarrassing. 40 HR and SB total. I didn’t expect many HR from Aoki but he went from 8 in 2013 to 1 in 2014. I thought Calhoun would steal 20 this year. Oh well.

5) One of Pineda, Skaggs, and Hutchison will finish among the top 25 SPs, by ESPN's rankings.

I was closest on this. If Pineda had pitched even one more month with similar numbers to the end of the season he would have cracked the top 25 with ease. He finished 33^rd on player rate after missing most of the year, and being a dirty dirty cheater. He was 7^th in PR for the last 30 days of the season, so I would have loved to see what he could do over the full year. Hutch was insanely inconsistent but still finished in the 40s on PR. Skaggs wasn’t in the top 50 and had TJS.

I was 0/5.

Bill
1.  Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist

      Straight up winner. Dozier beat both guys in each individual category and in total, with a 23/21 season. Good call.

2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
This was a very bold prediction, because Ricky Nolasco is terrible. Credit is due for the boldness. It’s a little tough to cross-reference the list of eligible pitchers with Player Rater, but it appears that Hughes was the runaway winner in the category, with Buerhle and Odorizzi distant 2^nd and 3^rd. Nolasco finished approximately 145^th on Player Rater. It took me a long time to find him. His Player Rate score was -3.25. He was really bad.  Morrow and Erasmo weren’t far off from him. So it goes with the <$3 pitchers.

3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Gray struck out 183 in 219 innings, with a (likely somewhat disappointing) K/9 of 7.52. Salazar only pitched 110 innings, and struck out 120 for a K/9 of 9.82. It would have taken 183 innings from Salazar to hit 200 Ks. Even if you count his AAA numbers he doesn’t get close to 200, so no dice here.

4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova made four bad starts in April before undergoing TJS. I really hate pitchers.

5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater

Prior to researching this I realized I had NO idea which of these three guys was better in 2014. Turns out, by ESPN’s numbers, Eaton was. I loved Eaton in the pre-season and I think I bid Bill up quite a bit in the draft, then lost track of him after some injuries and a disappointing first half. He ended the season with a .300 average, 15 steals, and solid run production (Jose Abreu says you’re welcome). Desmond Jennings continues to frustrate everyone who owns him, and Coco’s 2013 pixie dust wore off.

Bill was 2/5 and wins Bold Predictions this year as well. F$%&ing Bill.

The final countdown!

We are down to about 10 days of baseball, with the season ending on September 28th! Will Bill hold on? Will Luke go oh-fer in the Mike Trout era? Just how bad would Andrew's offense be without Jose Altuve? Hint: I am hitting 0.246 without him (it's the latest in advanced statistics AWOA, or Average without Altuve), and he has more than 40% of my stolen bases.

 My prediction is that Bill wins by holding on to his slight edge in Ks and picking up a half point from Taylor by pulling ahead in saves. Luke manages to pass Bill in stolen bases, but in the end that isn't quite enough for Luke to overcome his middling WHIP and ERA. What do you think will happen?

HALL OF CHAMPIONS has been updated!!

Thank you Bill McDowell!

Today, Andrew takes care of all family business

Looking for an outfielder

I was hoping I could replace Arcia with Victorino next week, but apparently Vic has been shut down with back pain. So, I'm looking to trade for an outfielder. I have some infield depth and some starting pitching depth. Let me know if you think we might match up.

Mike Trout is on the table...maybe

If I'm unable to win this league during my 4 years of owning super-cheap Mike Trout, well, I don't know what I'll do to myself, but my mother will cry!

Toward the end of preventing me from harming myself, I just want to put it out there early that I'm willing to sell Mike Trout in a dump trade to maximize my chances of winning this year. It's still too early for anybody to pack it in, and I'm not going to contact anybody individually for just yet as it seems a bit insulting to do so. But, if you're in the cellar and are thinking about what keepers you want to lock up for 2015, be thinking about Mike Trout.

As a reminder, Trout is $19 and 2015 is the last year on his contract. You'll have to be willing to pretty much tear your roster apart for me to part ways with him. The salary cap/floor might just make it impossible. I haven't looked for any specific deals yet, so I don't know. As usual with dump trades, the earlier you pack it in the more likely I am to sell.

Best team logo ever

Just go check out Kate's team. Do it right now, and thank me later.

In need of different pitchers

My starting pitching has gone from a tenuous situation a few weeks ago to an outright disaster. Cobb is still out, Straily is in AAA, Hutch and Masterson are struggling on and off, and Kuroda is finally old. And Pineda is an asshole. So I'm looking to improve in that region. I'm not sure how, because I'm not exactly full of depth elsewhere, but if anyone is looking to add a catcher (Pinto or Castro), wants to buy low on a SP, or wants to take on an injured player (of which I have many!), I'm open to ideas.

Looking to make a 2:1 or 3:2 deal

Within the next couple of weeks, my 4 DL eligible players will be activated, which will unsurprisingly lead to a bit of a roster crunch. In order to alleviate this, I'm looking to make a 2:1 or 3:2 deal with an eye towards improving my starting pitching.

Everyone is on the table, but I think my corner infield depth is probably the strongest (Teixeira, Smoak, Donaldson, Seager, Santana, and Victor Martinez once he plays 2 more games at 1B).

I'm also willing to deal some of my injured players, who should be coming back soon:
Eaton - this Sunday (about to go on minor league rehab)
Paxton - end of May (throwing 3rd bullpen session on Weds)
Sabathia - end of May (minimum DL stint expected, had fluid removed from knee)
Hamilton - end of May/early June (taking BP)

Let me know if you think we match up somewhere.

Pujols on the block

I'm staring down a roster with tons of holes, so I'm looking to make some sort of 2:1 deal. Albert Pujols seems to be a good place to start, but I'm also open trading Reyes, McCann, or Verlander/Sale. Let me know if you have depth and are looking to upgrade a starting spot.

A post related to baseball IRL

I got home from work tonight and saw that Pujols had hit his 499th HR in the first inning. Went back out and drove to the ballpark, bought a $5 ticket and got here JUST in time to see him hit #500 (from quite far away, as you can see). Woot!

Looking to trade an outfielder or closer

I'd like to try and trade from my outfield depth for either an offensive upgrade or a starting pitcher. I'd be most interested in trading Rasmus, Markakis, Nava, or Colabello. I am also open to offering Brantley or Martin, but would need significantly more value in return.

I'm also interested in trading away one of my 3 closers for a starting pitcher. I am most interested in trading Axford and am pretty apprehensive about trading Rodney or Balfour, although I recognize that I could get a much better return for Rodney or Balfour.

I'm pretty satisfied with my team right now and am just looking to tweak it a bit, so I'm not in any big rush. Just trying to give people some ideas. So, if you are in need of saves and/or some outfield depth and think we match up, let me know.

Looking to trade an injured player for an OF

I've had a rough run of injuries and I'm burning up most of my bench spots with DL players. I'd rather not cut them, since I think they have value, but I'm also in a bit of bind in terms of fielding a starting lineup. Let me know if you're interested in waiting out any of these guys' return:

Hamilton - out 6-8 weeks because he slid into fucking first base, torn thumb ligaments
James Paxton - out 2 weeks with a strained lat
Nate Jones - hip injury, TBD
Mark Teixeira - out until mid-late April with a hamstring injury (Grade 1 - mildest)
AJ Griffin - shoulder weakness, out until ~mid May

I sat down to write bold predictions, and you won't believe what happened next!!!

Like Caleb, I also haven't had a lot of time to come up with great bold predictions but wanted to at least throw something together before the AL games get going. Last year I was 0 for 5. Either I'm too bold or just stupid. Anyway, here goes...

1) Mike Trout ties or beats his 2013 performance in at least FOUR out of five roto categories. Last year I predicted he would beat his 2012 performance in at least 2 categories and he came up short, only surpassing his 2012 RBI total. Well, this year obviously the targets are lower, and I want to be bold, so I'm going with four. For the record, that's 109 runs, 27 HRs, 97 RBIs, 33 SB, and a .3226 average.

2) My team bats above .280. I think this is bold enough, as if I remember correctly usually we only have 1, sometimes 0 teams that end up batting better than .280. I targeted high average batters because I was intent on making Jonathan Villar my shortstop, and was scared of the possibility that he bats .220. Thanks to Caleb, I don't really own anybody that I think is capable of torpedoing my average. I'm going to give myself a caveat here though, and say that I will count this prediction as true if EITHER my team's final average is >.280, or if my opening day starting lineup ends the season with a combined average >.280 (that's Gomes, Davis, Kendrick, Bogaerts, Jeter, EE, Trout, Martin, Markakis, Brantley, and Ortiz). Just giving myself that out because I could easily end up trading average for power or pitching at some point.

3) I'm going to re-try one of my 2013 picks and say R.A. Dickey wins 20 games.

4) David Freese gets at least 100 RBIs. Batting 4th or 5th behind Calhoun, Trout, Pujols, and sometimes Hamilton, I'm expecting him to get a lot of opportunities. I think last year was a bad luck aberration. Freese's batted ball distance held up last year. Also, as much as Angels Stadium is not a hitter's park, it does play better than Busch for righties.

5) Bogaerts, Kendrick, Brantley, and Castellanos combine for at least 100 HR+SB.

Caleb's Bold Predictions

I'm sitting around all morning waiting for the afternoon's baseball games, so I thought I'd try to throw a couple of bold predictions together last minute. Not much time to flesh this out before the two year old makes me play with trains again, but at least I'll have something on record.

1) Jason Castro finishes as a top 3 catcher in our league, by ESPN's rankings.

2) Adam Lind hits at least .285 and finishes the season with at least 30 HR.

3) Adrian Beltre and Shin Soo Choo combine for >380 R+RBI.

4) Norichika Aoki and Kole Calhoun combine for >70 HR+SB.

5) One of Pineda, Skaggs, and Hutchison will finish among the top 25 SPs, by ESPN's rankings.

Omar Infante is on the block

I'm looking to trade Omar Infante for a cheap starting pitcher. He MIGHT get surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow and be out a couple months. I actually didn't know about his injury when I nominated him in the draft expecting him to go for $5 or $6. If you've got the pitching depth to spare and can take on some risk, Infante could be a nice boost to your batting average while pitching in 15-20 HR+SB and acceptable run production. I'm really just looking for any $1-3 starting pitcher that I don't hate.

Bill's Bold Predictions

I really enjoyed this series last year, so I wanted to keep it going again.

1. Brian Dozier has more homers and steals than Ian Kinsler and Ben Zobrist
Either this one seems totally nuts, if you're going by 2014 draft values, or fairly tame, if you're looking at 2013 numbers. Kinsler and Zobrist are both ranked well ahead of Dozier by experts, ADP, and us, going for $24 and $20 respectively, compared to Dozier's $6. However, Dozier had 18 HR and 14 SB last year in a breakout season for the Twins, while Kinsler had 13 HR and 15 SB and Zobrist had 12 HR and 11 SB.

2. Ricky Nolasco will be the best $3 or less pitcher (by player rater)
I was shocked when Nolasco went for only $1. Although he hasn't been the most exciting player over the last few years, he showed real improvement in 2013 with his swinging strike rate jumping to 10.5%, rivaling his heyday with the Marlins when he struck out 8+ batters/9. The swinging strike rate, coupled with his average zone swing rate, projects him for about 8.5 K/9 in 2013, a nice bump from the 7.5 K/9 he actually had. Add in a nice park and good walk rates, and you have a solid, almost every week starter.
For the record, his competition is: Miguel Gonzalez, Tyler Skaggs, Erik Johnson, Phil Hughes, Bud Norris, Hector Santiago, Erasmo Ramirez, Jake Odorizzi, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle
Plus the following injured/demoted players, who are unlikely to compete due to PT: Trevor Bauer, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Derek Holland

3. Danny Salazar or Sonny Gray strike out 200 batters
Danny Salazar had a 11.25 K/9 last year, which is supported by a spectacular 14.5% swinging strike rate, which would have been #1 in the majors by almost 2 percentage points had he qualified. He does it off of a spectacular fastball (96-97, touching 99) that was the best for a starter with 50 IP. The question for Salazar will be whether he can get enough innings - at the low end of his inning cap (160 IP), he'll need to match his 2013 K/9 to hit 200 K. Gray is coming off an equally impressive debut, albeit through totally different ways. Although his swinging strike rate is above average (9.5%), Gray gets a lot more strikeouts than you'd expect, thanks to a very low swing rate on pitches in the strike zone, much like Clay Buchholz last year. Unlike Salazar, Gray is looking at an uncapped season, so he doesn't need to be as spectacular to hit 200. Both have the skills to maintain their high K rates, and if they stay healthy, could be #1s.

4. Ivan Nova shows that the end of 2013 wasn't a fluke and finishes just inside the top 15
Nova was utterly dominant down the stretch last year, posting a 2.78 ERA in the second half, despite a weak September. Both his underlying numbers (9.5% swinging strike rate, 60.1% zone swing rate) and his spectacular spring so far (21 K, 2 BB in 19 IP) indicate further strikeout upside. Nova was above average in K/9, BB/9, and inducing grounders. That's a nice combo to have.

5. Adam Eaton tops Coco Crisp and Desmond Jennings on the player rater
Coming in to the 2013 season, Eaton was a highly anticipated prospect with the Diamondbacks. However, he got hurt in spring training and never really had a crack at full time playing time. He's only a year removed from stealing 46 bases in the minors and has good plate discipline, given him lots of opportunities. Most projections have him around 20 SB (Zips, Steamer, ESPN), but he has 40 SB upside, especially when paired with a manager willing to give him the green light.

Revisiting My 2013 Bold Predictions
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. Nova actually easily beat this bold prediction, as he was the #2 SP behind Kuroda, thanks in part to Sabathia's sudden downturn. I guess I'm doubling down on Nova.

2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs.
Reynolds ended up with 21 home runs, as playing time evaporated in the second half.

3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. EE actually outproduced both Pujols and Fielder, and was only topped by Chris Davis at first. #2 on player rater, and well ahead of both Fielder and Pujols. Looking good.

4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher.
Nope, although it wasn't who you might have expected ahead of him. A spectacular second half from VMart catapulted him to the #1 spot, while catcher in name only Mike Napoli held down #2. It was fairly close, though, with

5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not sooner, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters.
Nope. Guess straight fastballs are hittable, even when they're 100 MPH. I was right to doubt Papa Grande, but Benoit took the job and ran with it. Thank God I didn't cut Wil Myers instead of Rondon midseason. That would have cost me a championship!

Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb becomes the #2 starter on the Rays. Not only was Cobb the #2 starter on the Rays, he almost outperformed David Price, as both suffered through excellent, but injury shortened seasons. Cobb managed this despite throwing 43 fewer innings than Price.

Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn. Both Gardner (#35 mixed) and Crisp (#19 mixed) easily outperformed Bourn (#49 mixed)
Overall, I went 4/7, if you want to count my bonus questions, which, ironically, I thought were too unlikely to include in my main 5 (2/5 without).

Looking to trade a Catcher

I'd like to trade either Joe Mauer or Jason Castro. Let me know if you're interested. I'm mostly looking for an outfielder or first baseman.

I'd also like my players to stop getting injured, at least until the season starts. Let me know if you can do anything about that.

Projected Standings: Steamer

	Hitting	PA	Pitching	IP	Total
Andrew	23.5	6522	30	1116	53.5
Spencer	28	6326	23.5	1149	51.5
Bill	25	6521	26	1059	51
Caleb	31	6180	18.5	1074	49.5
Kate	15.5	6250	34	1145	49.5
Luke	26	6116	13	951	39
Taylor	17	6310	21.5	1087	38.5
Mark	14	5686	13.5	1084	27.5

I've included playing time estimates (plate appearances and IP) to provide some background. It looks like a mess at the top.

Updated the standings to fix some issues with ties with pitching stats. Almost everyone benefited a little bit, so the overall standings look the same.

Secret baby?

So many mysteries from last night's draft...

what DID Bill do for half an hour?  Lower case sorry?

why DID Spencer spend $35 for Adam Jones?

WHY is there no analysis today on the blog?  You've changed McDowells.

Differences of Opinion

I'm ahead of the game when it comes to prepping for the draft (consider it procrastination from actually writing my dissertation) and I noticed some interesting things when looking at how different projection systems value players. I'm going to be a bit vague here and there, so as to not give too much of my board away, but there are certainly some interesting tidbits here. To be clear, I'm working with the exact same set of constraints regarding hitter/pitcher splits, how to handle bench players, and other similar decisions, so differences there aren't driving these values.

Steamer and ESPN say top pitching is a worthwhile splurge. Fans and Baseball Prospectus say pitching is deep (for different reasons)
According to projections from Steamer and calculations available to ESPN Insiders, the top 10 pitchers should be rather highly paid - an average of $26 and $25, respectively.  This matches up with what we spent on the top 10 pitchers last year - $26/top ten arm (including David Price, who was kept at $25). Fangraphs Fans and Baseball Prospectus' Player Forecast Manager, on the other hand, had the top 10 arms much more lightly valued, both coming in at $21 on average. What is interesting is that the Fans have this for two reasons. First, they project many young, rising pitchers to be excellent and surprise players to maintain their excellence. For example, both Sonny Gray and Hisashi Iwakuma both sneak into the back of the top 10. Second, by having very good projections for players who are expected to be back of the fantasy rotation arms, that substantially raises the replacement level, and therefore knocking down value off the top. Third, the fans are projecting several truly dominant performances by closers. Based on the projected statistics, Fans are valuing the top 5 closers at $25 on average; put another way, a top closer is worth more than a top starter. This is really being driven by some incredibly low ERAs and WHIPs, coupled with some spectacularly high save totals. Because the money in the pitcher pool is a fixed amount, by paying closers for their incredible projected performances, you're taking money away from starters.
Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand, ends up with the conservative valuation of top tier pitchers through more traditional and expected routes - conservative projections. All told, the BP projections are more conservative across the board, presumably due to the incorporation of regression to the mean into PECOTA.

ESPN is ready to bury high power, low average players
Two of the biggest differences for the valuation of individual players come from Adam Dunn and Nick Swisher. Both are fairly highly valued by Steamer projections, but barely rosterable per ESPN's projections.

	Difference	High Proj.	Low. Proj.
Adam Dunn	19.46	Steamer	ESPN
Nick Swisher	15.7	Steamer	ESPN

Taking a closer look at Nick Swisher's projection, things get even more interesting...

	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Steamer	23	80	85	2	0.255
ESPN	23	80	79	2	0.255

These projections are almost as close as you can possibly imagine, with four of the categories being exactly the same. So just how do you end up with a $16 gap between the two identical projections?

Baseline.

ESPN's projections are very, very optimistic in terms of production, while Steamer's are much more conservative. For example, Swisher's .255 average is almost 20 points below the average for a starter in the league per ESPN. That exact same .255 average is only 10 points below average per Steamer. Ditto for home runs - Steamer has the starters hitting 18.3 home runs on average, while ESPN has them hitting 19.7. The Swisher example is a particularly striking one, but this is a great illustration about how these projections are apple and oranges, at least with regard to individual player lines.

The fans LOVE their bright new shiny baubles
Consistently across the board, fans rate unestablished, but up and coming players much more favorably than any of the other three projection systems.
Check out these high upside outfielders and where they rank at the position:

	Difference	High Proj.	Low. Proj.	Rank
Avisail Garcia	17.19	Fans	Steamer	9
Brandon Moss	18.7	Fans	BP	12
Kole Calhoun	14.55	Fans	ESPN	14
Oswaldo Arcia	12.51	Fans	ESPN	19

Avisail Garcia, for example, actually ranks higher than Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran, Moss and Calhoun are ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Austin Jackson, and Oswaldo Arcia is ranked ahead of Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings, and Brett Gardner. It is important to recognize that the fans don't seem to be taking risk or downside into account properly, both in terms of performance and playing time. Perhaps when someone thinks "Kole Calhoun could hit 25 HR and steal 15 SB next year", that's what they put in as their projection. Another important aspect to this is that people are putting in projections, not rankings. I think if you asked anyone who put even the most optimistic Avisail Garcia projection, if they'd rather have Ellsbury or Garcia, they'd look at you like you had two heads. Nevertheless, that is how the projections work out. Either way, it is incredible to see players who will probably be a few bucks ranked ahead of $25+ players like Ellsbury.

The Worst Team Money Could Have Bought

I was looking at last year's draft and comparing it to overall values. I was struck by how much dead money there was (players who were drafted, but were below replacement level) - $338 split between 66 players. Most of that money went to players who were at least on the bubble of starting ($264 to players paid $8 or more).

Here is a team (using the full $260 budget), comprised entirely of below replacement players:



Ouch. The money lost on bad picks dwarfs any keeper gains ($492 of salary for $564 of value). No surprises at the bottom of the keeper value list - Brett Lawrie and Prince Fielder both fell more than $10 short of their cost, but Josh Hamilton "wins out" at -$13.

On the flip side, the top 24 undrafted free agents accounted for $245 worth of value. This doesn't even take into account the many, many players who were drafted, cut, then went on to provide a lot of value, such as Leonys Martin ($15), Ivan Nova ($8), or Ubaldo Jimenez ($12).


Better use the wire well if you want to win!