Hey, me too!

If you haven't been living under a rock, you know that I'm trying to trade Josh Hamilton.  So if you already know, then why am I making this post?  I don't know.  Guess I'm just desperate.  Somebody take this guy away from me, please!

Also wouldn't mind trading Travis Hafner for somebody who plays a position, preferably outfield or third base. 

Get your outfielders!

OK, since everyone else is doing it, I figure I might as well too. I've somehow stumbled into somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-7 useful (though not all great) outfielders. I'm open to trading any of them, but I'm mainly interested a smaller deal for a SP, so let me know if any of them catch your eye. My current outfielders are: Ellsbury Gordon Dirks L. Martin Stubbs McLouth Reddick (on DL, scheduled to come off on Friday)

Looking to deal OF, 3B depth

I'm looking to deal any of my OF to try and upgrade OF, 2B, SS, or SP. Open to trading Mark Reynolds ($1) in the right deal as well, if anyone is interested in a 1B/3B.

Need a 3B

Will Middlebrooks has yet to catch fire again and is now on the DL for a bit. I'd like to take this opportunity to try to acquire a 3B. I have starting pitching depth to trade from, and that's about it. David Price is on the table, as are most of my starters. I'd be happy to keep it a small trade - a mediocre 3B for a mediocre starter - but I'm open to anything.

The Mike Trout Wager: First Quarter Report

Mike Trout was the subject of much discussion and debate this offseason, and the debate culminated in a wager between me and Bill.  I'm actually not 100% sure whether or not Bill agreed to the wager in the end, but it's still fun to talk about, and perhaps Bill can confirm now whether he still wants to do it.  I'm certainly still agreeable to the original terms.

To review, the wager was an over/under bet on Trout's performance in each of the 5 roto categories, with the winner being whoever is on the right side in more categories.  Bill took all the unders, and I took all the overs.  The over/unders were set at 124.5 runs, 27.5 HRs, 80.5 RBIs, .3045 AVG, and 44.5 steals.

Mike Trout now has 40 games under his belt, so I thought this would be a good time to check in and see what he's on pace for.  Here are his numbers last year, so far this year, the over/unders, and what he's on pace for:

	G	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2012	139	639	129	30	83	49	.326
2013	40	187	27	8	29	7	.293
O/Us			124.5	27.5	80.5	44.5	.305
Pace	162	757	109	32	117	28	.293

I'm looking very good in RBI, looking kind of good in HR, but Bill has the other 3 categories and thus is winning.  Trout is off to a great start by normal human standards (#2 on Player Rater right now, behind Miguel Cabrera), but he has certainly fallen off a bit from last year's insane production.

Bill was right to try and increase the RBI O/U, although at Trout's current pace it probably won't end up making a difference.  The main change here that came a couple weeks into the season was Trout getting moved to 2nd in the batting order.  That's a big plus for RBIs but means fewer PAs and fewer runs.  Trout's run production has also suffered relative to last year, thanks to a 35 point drop in OBP, not having a .313 hitting Torii Hunter next in the order, and both Pujols and Hamilton majorly underperforming.

Here's a look at some of Trout's peripheral stats this year and last:

	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	HR/FB	ISO
2012	.399	.564	10.5%	21.8%	.383	21.6%	.238
2013	.364	.549	10.2%	17.6%	.317	19.0%	.256

Slugging and walk rate are pretty much steady.  The slight uptick in ISO, despite a small decline in HR/FB, I think bodes well for Trout's overall production.

If I were Bill, I'd be concerned by that 4.2% drop in K%.  The sample size is still small at this point, but if Trout can keep his strikeouts this low while continuing to hit home runs at the same rate, he really won't need all that insane of a BABIP in order to beat the .305 batting average O/U.   During the pre-season discussion, Caleb pointed out that we might see a significant skill improvement like this with Trout, since he's only 21.  So far, it looks like Caleb was right.

Bottom line:  So far the pace numbers are in Bill's favor, but the peripherals offer hope for Trout to make me the winner by taking AVG, if Trout can get his BABIP up to the .330-.340 range.

2 for 1 or 3 for 2?

I'm looking for a 2-1 or 3-2, thanks to a couple players coming off the DL and the bench players I've picked up hitting well. The biggest things I'd like to shore up are my pitching (esp Ks) and outfield, where I have a lot of depth, but no great players (Coco's massive start, aside). 2B and SS are mediocre, so an upgrade would be of interest there as well. Mark Reynolds is about to pick up 3B eligibility, so I have tremendous flexibility at the corners. Let me know if you can see something that works.

OF for an IF?

I'm looking to trade one of my OFs to replace the suck that is Mitch Moreland/Carlos Pena.  Open to trading smaller pieces or bigger pieces...

On pace for...

It's always fun to take a look at the "on pace for" numbers that ESPN provides. They're not not the most sophisticated projections in the world, as they just take a players per game production so far and extend it for the remainder to the regular season, but interesting none the less. I wanted to see how production so far has compared to last year's numbers.

To start out, I picked a set of thresholds based based on what I considered "good production" for each stat and how many players hit the thresholds last year - they are: 90 runs, 30 home runs, 95 RsBI,and 30 stolen bases. For background about the projected numbers I'm going to present in a little bit,  here are the 2012 totals for players above the aforementioned thresholds, along with the overall leader in the statistic. These totals are only for the AL, as our league is an AL only league, and therefore the NL doesn't matter. I mean seriously, pitchers hit over there.

	Threshold	2012	Leader	Total
Runs	90	13	Trout	129
HR	30	15	Cabrera	44
RBI	95	11	Cabrera	139
SB	30	9	Trout	49

Before we get in to the projections, it is important to note that we should expect there to be more players above these thresholds than over the course of the 2012 season. We're working with a small sample size here, so a burst of production can dramatically change the overall projection. For example, Jonny Gomes' 5 RBI night last night led to a 24 RBI increase in his projected season totals. Without further ado, here are the projected numbers of players above the thresholds:

	2012 #	2013 proj #	Threshold
Runs	13	22	19
HR	15	16	7
RBI	11	23	19
SB	9	6	7

So as predicted, we're seeing more players projected to reach 90 runs and 95 RBI in 2013 than we saw in 2012. Home runs are about equal and the projected number of 30 base stealers is down a bit. Again, I want to emphasize that this is a small sample size, and a single stolen base and a few games played is the difference between being projected to steal 35 and 28 bases over the course of the season, so these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. The overall decline in stolen bases was noted before this season, however, in 2013 we've seen another marked drop in stolen bases. Our rudimentary analysis seems to back this up, as well.

Now the real fun begins, as we get into the leaders. Again, because we're looking at a small sample size, we'd expect our projected 2013 to top the actual 2012 leaders.

	2012 leader		2013 projected leader
	Name	Total	Name	Proj.	Current
Runs	Trout	129	Jackson	162	31
HR	Cabrera	44	Reynolds	51	10
RBI	Cabrera	139	Cabrera	193	37
SB	Trout	49	Ellsbury	57	12

What really stands out to me are the two teammates, Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera, who are on pace to demolish the leaders from last year. But just how impressive are these totals from a month and a half? Here are the two best monthly totals for runs and RBI from last year, from Mike Trout's June and Josh Hamilton's May.

	Name	Monthly total	Projected
Runs	Trout	32	199
RBI	Hamilton	32	185

Note the projections differ due to the difference in games played for the Angels and Rangers in July and May, respectively.

So we can see that while Austin Jackson has been fantastic in the first five and a half weeks of the season, what he's doing was outdone by Mike Trout's best month. On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera is actually outperforming Hamilton's best month from last year, which is just nuts. While Cabrera hasn't been hitting as many home runs so far this year (6, on pace for 31), everything else about him has been spectacular.

Take my pitching, please.

As my team continues to shit the bed, I'm looking to revamp my pitching staff. I'm not going to part with David Price for pennies on the dollar, but he's available. And if you see a silver lining in Parker, Hammels, Masterson, Tepesch, or Phelps, make me an offer. I'm gonna hold onto Milone for now. I think my team can still compete, so I'm not necessarily looking to punt entirely, just to change things up a bit.  Not looking for anything specific...other crappy starters, offensive depth, or a third baseman who can make contact with baseballs would be great.

Evaluating the offseason and early season deals

We're one month in to the season, so I thought it would be useful to take a look at how the trades have broken down so far. Granted, we are only a month in, so a lot can change still. I've included salaries for preseason trades, because I think that is important as it frees up other money for the draft, but not for the in season trades.

Preseason
Bill trades Ian Kinsler ($22), Josh Reddick ($10), and Jake Peavy ($6) to Kate for Edwin Encarnacion ($9)
Overall, this trade looks like a win/win. Kate gets the edge in production, as Ian Kinsler has been the best player in the deal via the Player Rater (#9 hitter, #2 2B) and Peavy was excellent for her (3.93 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 24 K, 18 IP) before being traded to Taylor in exchange for Jered Weaver.  Josh Reddick was not kept, so I'm going to leave him out of the analysis. Edwin Encarnacion has been a beast lately, though, hitting five home runs in the last week to push his season total to nine. His low batting average thus far has depressed his player rater value a bit, but that appears to be related to batting average on balls in play, which is abnormally low (.195). Kate wins overall production and depth, but I got fairly similar production for less salary.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push (win/win)

Caleb trades Mark Trumbo ($4) and Manny Machado ($10) to Luke for David Price ($25)
Worried about Trumbo's terrible second half, Caleb shipped the cheap power hitting outfielder and rookie phenom Machado to Luke for David Price.  With Felix Hernandez going for $33 in the draft, Caleb probably got $5 worth of preseason value out of this deal, along with cost certainty for his #1 pitcher. Unfortunately, Price has not pitched well so far (#48 SP, 5.21 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), but he is maintaining strikeout and walk rates similar to last year, so most of his poor performance stems from lots of home runs (18% of fly balls, compared to a typical average of 10%) and a high average on balls in play (.343, career worst by .060). He'll come around, but for the time being the results have been rough. Trumbo, on the other hand, has started off hot, hitting .300 with six home runs, despite the general malaise in the Angels lineup surrounding him. He comes in at the #20 overall hitter, and has nice positional flexibility (1B and OF) to boot. Whether he can avoid his second half collapse remains another question, as he had a similar line before the All Star Break in 2012 (.306/.358/.608) before becoming a generally terrible hitter after the break (.227/.271/.359). I don't think Price will continue to pitch poorly, nor do I think that Trumbo will continue to hit .300, but with a month of excellent production in hand for Trumbo and poor production from Price, coupled with the salary difference, I think the winner is clear.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Luke

Luke trades Manny Machado ($10) and Fernando Rodney ($10) to Mark for Leonys Martin ($1)
Hope Manny Machado never unpacked his virtual suitcases. Shortly after being traded to Luke's team, Luke shipped him out, along with Tampa closer Fernando Rodney in exchange for Leonys Martin. Machado wasn't kept, so I've left him out of this analysis, but he's looking like the best player in the deal. Rodney has apparently lost whatever it was that led him to the best relief season in recent memory. Rodney had excellent control in 2012 (1.81 BB/9 IP),and pretty poor control for the rest of his career (4.47 BB/9 IP). It appears he's turned back into a pumpkin, having walked seven batters in only 8 1/3 innings so far this season, leading to a bloated 4.32 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP. He still has the closer job, though, and as long as he can hang on, he'll be in Mark's lineup. There was a lot of hype surrounding Martin in the preseason, that he would take the Texas center field job outright and could be a candidate for 30 stolen bases. All the while the Rangers said that he'd splitting time in center field with Craig Gentry and his anemic bat, but excellent speed and defense. Well, the Rangers stuck to their word, although Martin helped out by only hitting .245/.302/.347 with one homer and no stolen bases. Although Rodney has been a disappointment, he's still on the roster and still getting saves.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark (lose/lose aspects, though)

Andrew trades Alcides Escobar ($2) and Doug Fister ($4) to Taylor for Alex Gordon ($6)
In this deal, Taylor gave up a sub-$10, top 10 or 15 outfielder for two cheap, value keepers. Thus far, everyone has lived up to or exceeded expectations. Gordon currently sits at #7 on the player rater, with contributions across the board: .321 average, 19 R, 3 HR, 18 RBI, and 3 SB. Not bad for a $6 player. Doug Fister has a 2.38 ERA, a WHIP just over 1.00, and a pristine 4-0 record. Not too shabby for a $4 pitcher. And finally we get to the player who is looking like the gem of the deal, Alcides Escobar. Escobar was a solid starter last year, hitting .293 with 35 SB and not offering much else. This year Escobar has been an across the board contributor and is above average in every single stat, with a very impressive .291 average,  13 R, 3 HR, 12 RBI, and 6 SB. The power probably won't continue, as Escobar has averaged just over 4 HR per year over the past three seasons, but he is still only 26 and could be developing into a 10+ HR hitter. Gordon and Escobar are right next to each other in the player rater currently (5.79 for Gordon, 5.78 for Escobar), and while Gordon is a lot more likely to be able to keep up his offensive production, Taylor also added a very good, every week starter in the deal.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor

March and April
Bill trades Jim Johnson to Mark for Tom Wilhelmsen
Looking for more strikeouts, and foolishly believing that Rondon would eventually end up with the closer job in Detroit, I traded away rock solid, but strikeout impaired, closer to Mark for the flame throwing Seattle closer, Tom Wilhelmsen. Since the deal, up has been down, left has been right, and Jim Johnson has been striking out a batter per inning. That, coupled with a nice run of saves and a win in relief has made Johnson the #1 closer. Wilhelmsen has pitched extremely well (0.69 ERA, 0.62 WHIP), but his strikeout rate has been a bit pedestrian, at least by the lofty standards he set last year.  I doubt Johnson will continue to out-K Wilhelmsen, but stranger things have happened.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Mark

Caleb trades Mike Napoli to Taylor for Ryan Doumit and Lorenzo Cain 
Who would you rather have:
Player A: 16 R, 6 HR, 31 RBI, .287 avg, 0 SB
Player B: 20 R, 1 HR, 20 RBI, .265 avg, 3 SB
It might come down to your team's statistical needs, but most players would pick player A. As Sox fans, you've probably all successfully identified Mike Napoli's spectacular early season line. Player B is actually Doumit and Cain combined, or as I like to call him, Ryenzo Doumain. To have one player outproduce two means that no matter how shitty that outfielder Taylor is running out in Cain's place, he's coming out ahead. Cain has actually been pulling his weight, with the lone home run, all three stolen bases, most of the runs and RBI, while hitting over .300. He is looking like a potential keeper, one month in. Unfortunately for Caleb, so is Napoli. Napoli is on pace to put up similar numbers to his spectacular 2011, when he hit 30 HR despite missing 50 games.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor

Caleb trades Josh Reddick and Lonnie Chisenhall for Josh Willingham and Al Alburquerque
Andrew had too many relief pitchers following the draft, needed an injury fill in for Brett Lawrie, and coveted Josh Reddick. Caleb was gambling on saves with the Detroit closer situation unsettled, and had no use for Chisenhall. Within the month, both Chisenhall and Alburquerque were cut, essentially leaving this deal as Reddick for Willingham. Willingham has been his usual self - mediocre average, good pop (4 HR), and limited runs and RBI (compared to his power) due to his terrible speed and a poor lineup surrounding him. He's on pace for his usual 30 HR season. Reddick, on the other hand, has been a giant mess. Although he isn't striking out any more, and is in fact walking more, he's also hitting a ton more groundballs, which severely limits his power upside. He's hitting a meager .148 on the season, which is partly BABIP driven, but is still worrisome. The lone bright spot has been his stolen base totals; with five already, he's on pace to top 25, blowing past the 11 he had last year. Unfortuntately, Andrew already has a comfortable lead in stolen bases.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Caleb

Kate trades Jake Peavy to Taylor for Jered Weaver
Prior to this trade, Jake Peavy had been pitching spectacularly well (24 K: 1 BB in 18 IP) and Weaver had some massive red flags, including a big drop in velocity, poor control, and a poor strikeout rate, albeit in only two starts. And he also had a broken left (non-throwing) elbow that would sideline him for a month or two.  Since the deal Peavy has continued to pitch well (2.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 15 K). Kate is banking on Jered Weaver returning immediately to his sub-3.00 ERA form, but even last year the Ks were way down (6.77 K/9 IP). Even if Weaver returns to form, a month or two of replacement level pitching plus the remainder of Weaver's season probably won't top Peavy.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Taylor

Andrew trades Stephen Drew to Kate for Andy Dirks 
A minor, need based deal. Kate needed a shortstop, with Reyes hurting his ankle, and Andrew has coveted Dirks since the draft. Dirks went ahead and got hurt immediately, so he hasn't played at all for Andrew and Stephen Drew has allowed Kate to bench the scuffling Maicer Izturis. Not too much to see here.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push

Caleb trades Junichi Tazawa to Taylor for Kelvin Herrera
The most recent trade is a funny little deal. You don't see too many deals where a non-closer RP gets swapped for a non-closer RP, especially when one was just picked up. At the time of the deal, I liked it better for Taylor - Hanrahan was hurt, Bailey was the interim closer and was shaky in his first few appearances. Since then Bailey has locked down the role and Hanrahan has returned from his tweaked hamstring. Herrera has put up some spectacular strike out numbers (19 in 12 IP), but he's also been oddly hittable for a guy touching triple digits (5+ ERA). Herrera probably has more upside going forward, but Tazawa is someone you can always plug into your lineup and feel OK about. Both are probably cuttable should Taylor or Caleb need an injury replacement.
Preposterously Early Verdict: Push

The final preposterously early verdict? Don't trade with Taylor!