Monday, March 25, 2013
RPs for hitters
My offense is starting to look a little thin, thanks to injuries to Lawrie and Stephen Drew and my nonexistent bench. I'm looking to add a bat in exchange for one of my RPs. Doolittle, McGee, Bailey, and Al Alburquerque are all on the table. I'm looking for a hitter, preferably an infielder, for one of my RPs.
Too many prospects
Trevor Bauer and Johnny Giavotella have gone to AAA. Dan Straily will probably go to AAA once Bartolo Colon's suspension is over. Apparently Erasmo Ramirez is headed to the bullpen. This leaves me with 4 out of 5 bench spots being used on young guys with high upside who, at least early on, will not be contributing any fantasy value. I'm looking to trade some of these guys in exchange for a major league starting pitcher or hitter. Straily is $3, Ramirez is $2, and Bauer and Giavotella are each $1, so all of these guys could end up being great 2014 keepers.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Andrew's "Oh God, I really need these predictions to come true"
One of the advantages of dropping $129 on three hitters is that you end up with a lot of uncertainty on your bench (and in your starting lineup!), which gives you something to dream on. Here are my “Oh god, these better come true” predictions for 2013.
1) Jon Lester returns to form, and finishes in the top 5 for Cy Young voting.
The AL East is no longer quite so scary, and with Lester reunited with John Farrell, I'm hoping for a 9K/9, 3.3BB/9 sort of season from Lester, which is about what he did in 2010. His spring numbers have been quite good, including 6 no hit innings (with 10 Ks!) against the Yankees, further contributing to my irrational exuberance.
2) Glen Perkins finishes in the top 3 RP, by player rater.
I love his stuff, which is greatly improved since the move to the bullpen, and while Perkins is a lefty, he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Saves could be a bit of an issue, since that seems to be what really drives the top RPs, but I think Perkins can pick up enough to be in the top 3.
3)Justin Smoak finishes the season as a top 10 option at 1B (looking at the player card, which pulls out guys like Mauer and V-Mart, since they play more demanding positions).
This one is a big reach. Smoak's numbers last September and in Spring Training are outstanding, but the scouting report remains mixed. I believe Keith Law called him "slow" and "not the same player he was at South Carolina." That said, he's been driving the ball well, and if he can get the batting average up, it seems doable. I'm also counting on a revamped Seattle lineup, with no more Miguel Olivo and his 0.239 OBP (Ed note: this is not a misprint) (Note 2: This was only 50 points lower than Smoak's OBP. (Note 3: Uh oh.) as well as the slightly cozier park to boost Smoak's RBI and R opportunities.
4) Alex Gordon hits 40+ HR+SB
The SB portion of this could make it hard to attain, but I think Gordon is going to really bounce back power wise. He managed to hit 51 doubles, so it's not like he was powerless, and his batted ball distance remained robust. I'm hoping for a 25-15 season.
5) Jake Arrieta finishes the year as the highest rated Baltimore SP by Player Rater
It’s not exactly an overwhelming feat, given the state of the rest of the Orioles’ rotation, but given Arrieta’s ugly 6.20 ERA last season, I’m going to call this bold. He was once a top pitching prospect, and has improved his K/BB in the last three seasons. That K/9 is almost certainly coming down, but I could see Arrieta finishing the year with an ERA in the high threes and around 150 strikeouts. Think of him as a bargain bin Doug Fister.
1) Jon Lester returns to form, and finishes in the top 5 for Cy Young voting.
The AL East is no longer quite so scary, and with Lester reunited with John Farrell, I'm hoping for a 9K/9, 3.3BB/9 sort of season from Lester, which is about what he did in 2010. His spring numbers have been quite good, including 6 no hit innings (with 10 Ks!) against the Yankees, further contributing to my irrational exuberance.
2) Glen Perkins finishes in the top 3 RP, by player rater.
I love his stuff, which is greatly improved since the move to the bullpen, and while Perkins is a lefty, he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Saves could be a bit of an issue, since that seems to be what really drives the top RPs, but I think Perkins can pick up enough to be in the top 3.
3)Justin Smoak finishes the season as a top 10 option at 1B (looking at the player card, which pulls out guys like Mauer and V-Mart, since they play more demanding positions).
This one is a big reach. Smoak's numbers last September and in Spring Training are outstanding, but the scouting report remains mixed. I believe Keith Law called him "slow" and "not the same player he was at South Carolina." That said, he's been driving the ball well, and if he can get the batting average up, it seems doable. I'm also counting on a revamped Seattle lineup, with no more Miguel Olivo and his 0.239 OBP (Ed note: this is not a misprint) (Note 2: This was only 50 points lower than Smoak's OBP. (Note 3: Uh oh.) as well as the slightly cozier park to boost Smoak's RBI and R opportunities.
4) Alex Gordon hits 40+ HR+SB
The SB portion of this could make it hard to attain, but I think Gordon is going to really bounce back power wise. He managed to hit 51 doubles, so it's not like he was powerless, and his batted ball distance remained robust. I'm hoping for a 25-15 season.
5) Jake Arrieta finishes the year as the highest rated Baltimore SP by Player Rater
It’s not exactly an overwhelming feat, given the state of the rest of the Orioles’ rotation, but given Arrieta’s ugly 6.20 ERA last season, I’m going to call this bold. He was once a top pitching prospect, and has improved his K/BB in the last three seasons. That K/9 is almost certainly coming down, but I could see Arrieta finishing the year with an ERA in the high threes and around 150 strikeouts. Think of him as a bargain bin Doug Fister.
All noise, no signal. My 5 bold predictions for my yet-to-be-named team in 2013.
I don't have time to back these up with numbers, but here are my five bold predictions. Like Luke, I really enjoyed the FanGraphs series last season. Some of these predictions may not be all that bold, but we'll see:
1) I drafted one guy I thought was a sure-thing closer (Janssen) and one guy who I thought might pick up some saves in April and then be a decent middle reliever (Frieri). My bold prediction is that Janssen doesn't get more than 5 saves this season, while Frieri grabs 40 and is a top 3 closer this year.
2) JJ Hardy gets 600 ABs, hits 30 HR, and has a batting average greater than .270.
3) Joe Mauer misses enough of the season with various ailments to cause him to be just shy of qualifying for the batting title...which he would have won handily with his .340 batting average.
4) Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title instead, and leads the league in HRs again. He misses out on the Triple Crown, as he finishes behind Prince Fielder in RBI.
5) Jason Hammel, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone are all in the top 10 in voting for the Cy Young award, but none of them have a particularly strong campaign for the award as Hammel only wins 10 games, Parker doesn't get a ton of Ks, and no one knows who Tommy Milone is. David Price wins it instead.
1) I drafted one guy I thought was a sure-thing closer (Janssen) and one guy who I thought might pick up some saves in April and then be a decent middle reliever (Frieri). My bold prediction is that Janssen doesn't get more than 5 saves this season, while Frieri grabs 40 and is a top 3 closer this year.
2) JJ Hardy gets 600 ABs, hits 30 HR, and has a batting average greater than .270.
3) Joe Mauer misses enough of the season with various ailments to cause him to be just shy of qualifying for the batting title...which he would have won handily with his .340 batting average.
4) Miguel Cabrera wins the batting title instead, and leads the league in HRs again. He misses out on the Triple Crown, as he finishes behind Prince Fielder in RBI.
5) Jason Hammel, Jarrod Parker, and Tommy Milone are all in the top 10 in voting for the Cy Young award, but none of them have a particularly strong campaign for the award as Hammel only wins 10 games, Parker doesn't get a ton of Ks, and no one knows who Tommy Milone is. David Price wins it instead.
Look upon my team ye mighty and despair, or Bill's Bold Predictions
All right, here are my predictions. Just like Luke's, these are all unlikely to happen, but are conceivable.
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. You might not have noticed, but Nova took major steps forward last year, upping his strike out rate in a big way. This matches up with an increased swinging strike rate, so it is likely sustainable. Unfortunately, it also happened to be a year where his ERA increased by 1.30, ballooning over 5. Nova will hang on to his strikeout gains, bump his GB % back up, and his gradually increased workload will let him get to 200 innings for the first time in his career. An ERA of 3.75, WHIP of 1.27, and 170 Ks are well within reach. On principle, I refuse to project wins.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs. I was absolutely shocked to get Reynolds for $1 in the draft, given he went for $14 two years ago and performed well enough to be kept the following year. 2012 was a down year for Reynolds, but now that he is over nagging injuries and can DH full time, he'll rediscover his power stroke and hit 30 home runs, to go along with a .240 average.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. Pujols has been declining for several years, and while Fielder is rock solid, he doesn't run. EE should be able to stay in front of one of them, especially with a much deeper Toronto lineup around him this year, with the return of Bautista and the addition of Jose Reyes.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher, finally making good on his potential in the last year of his contract. Santana scuffled badly in the first half, dealing with injuries and hitting a meager five home runs. Post All Star Break, Santana was dominant, hitting .280 with 13 home runs and more walks than strike outs. In 2013 he builds off his second half success and hits 25 home runs and a .270 average, while in the neighborhood of 90 runs and 90 RBI.
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not soon, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters. Rondon was a mess to begin spring training, but since his mechanics were tweaked in a bullpen session he's been lights out: 6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 1 ER. His WHIP might not be doing me any favors, Guys who can throw over 100 mph are hard to come by and even harder to hit. There are other interesting arms in that bullpen, but both Coke and Dotel have huge splits, Benoit can't pitch on back to back days, and Al Albuquerque can't stay healthy. Finally, Jim Leyland has shown that he can tolerate a closer who will walk a guy from time to time, as shown by Jose Valverde's three year stint as closer.
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb takes advantage of Matt Moore still failing to put it all together and Jeremy Hellickson finally regressing to the mean to become the #2 starter on the Rays. There is no doubt I overpaid for Cobb, but his spring has been excellent, both in terms of numbers and scouting reports.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn.
Torii Hunter hangs on to his counting stats and his batting average regression is small enough that he remains a top 15 outfielder.
1. Ivan Nova makes good on his promising 2012 and is the #3 SP on the Yankees, just behind Kuroda. You might not have noticed, but Nova took major steps forward last year, upping his strike out rate in a big way. This matches up with an increased swinging strike rate, so it is likely sustainable. Unfortunately, it also happened to be a year where his ERA increased by 1.30, ballooning over 5. Nova will hang on to his strikeout gains, bump his GB % back up, and his gradually increased workload will let him get to 200 innings for the first time in his career. An ERA of 3.75, WHIP of 1.27, and 170 Ks are well within reach. On principle, I refuse to project wins.
2. Mark Reynolds returns to form and hits 30 home runs. I was absolutely shocked to get Reynolds for $1 in the draft, given he went for $14 two years ago and performed well enough to be kept the following year. 2012 was a down year for Reynolds, but now that he is over nagging injuries and can DH full time, he'll rediscover his power stroke and hit 30 home runs, to go along with a .240 average.
3. Edwin Encarnacion comes close to repeating his 2012 and outproduces either Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to be a top two first baseman in the league. Pujols has been declining for several years, and while Fielder is rock solid, he doesn't run. EE should be able to stay in front of one of them, especially with a much deeper Toronto lineup around him this year, with the return of Bautista and the addition of Jose Reyes.
4. Carlos Santana is the clear cut, #1 catcher, finally making good on his potential in the last year of his contract. Santana scuffled badly in the first half, dealing with injuries and hitting a meager five home runs. Post All Star Break, Santana was dominant, hitting .280 with 13 home runs and more walks than strike outs. In 2013 he builds off his second half success and hits 25 home runs and a .270 average, while in the neighborhood of 90 runs and 90 RBI.
5. Bruce Rondon gets the Tigers closer job by May 1, if not soon, and gets 30 saves over the course of the season and strikes out 80 batters. Rondon was a mess to begin spring training, but since his mechanics were tweaked in a bullpen session he's been lights out: 6 IP, 9 K, 2 BB, 1 ER. His WHIP might not be doing me any favors, Guys who can throw over 100 mph are hard to come by and even harder to hit. There are other interesting arms in that bullpen, but both Coke and Dotel have huge splits, Benoit can't pitch on back to back days, and Al Albuquerque can't stay healthy. Finally, Jim Leyland has shown that he can tolerate a closer who will walk a guy from time to time, as shown by Jose Valverde's three year stint as closer.
Other slightly crazy predictions:
Alex Cobb takes advantage of Matt Moore still failing to put it all together and Jeremy Hellickson finally regressing to the mean to become the #2 starter on the Rays. There is no doubt I overpaid for Cobb, but his spring has been excellent, both in terms of numbers and scouting reports.
Brett Gardner or Coco Crisp outperform Michael Bourn.
Torii Hunter hangs on to his counting stats and his batting average regression is small enough that he remains a top 15 outfielder.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Five Patently Nuts Bold Predictions for 2013
Okay, I can't stand waiting for baseball to start. In the meantime, I want to generate some conversation. I liked the "Bold Prediction" articles that Fangraphs did last year, so I figured I'd do five such bold predictions myself, each about a player on my fantasy team.
Remember, these are supposed to be "bold predictions," not things that I realistically expect to happen. I'll have done pretty well if 1 out of 5 comes true, and practically be a psychic if I get 2 right. Basically, these are the 5 scenarios that I see as unlikely but possible, and that come true in my dreams and give me my first Durham Plays for Keeps fantasy title.
1) Erick Aybar ends the season as the #2 shortstop on player rater, 2nd only to Reyes. Originally I was only going to say that Aybar beats Andrus on player rater, but after actually looking up their scores the last few years I realized that they were quite close together, so that wouldn't have been a very bold prediction. Aybar finished 5th last year, without Reyes in the AL, so to make 2nd he'll need to pass Andrus, Zobrist, Escobar, and Jeter. This prediction is entirely based on the hope that Aybar gets to hit 2nd in the Angels lineup. That's an amazing spot to hit, after Trout and before Pujols, Hamilton, and Trumbo. Personally, I'd put Callaspo and his better OBP in that spot, but I'm not Mike Scioscia. If Aybar spends most of the season in the 2 hole, he could easily set career highs in runs (90+) and RBIs (70+). Combine that with his decent batting average, 25-30 steals, and 10+ home runs thanks to an increase in plate appearances, and you've got the #2 shortstop in the AL.
2) Sal Perez hits .300 with 20 home runs and 90 RBIs. This would be nothing more than Perez maintaining his 2012 pace over a full season spent hitting #5 behind Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. Perez turns 23 this year and has spent the last 2 years tearing up AAA and the majors as long as he's been healthy. I really like the Royals lineup this year and I think Perez will get a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
3) R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. He did this last year, so what makes this a bold prediction? Well, Dickey is 38, has 1 successful season under his belt, throws a knuckleball, is missing a ligament, and is moving from the NL to the scary AL East. Also, 20 wins is just generally quite rare. There are usually only 1 or 2 20-game winners in the AL each year. However, he's pitching on the team with what I think will be the best offense in the AL East this year. The other AL East lineups, with the exception of Baltimore, aren't as scary as they used to be. Dickey rocked an awesome 3.18 SIERA last year, good for 4th among pitchers in the AL in 2013. He also did very well in 2 important categories for predicting a pitcher's allowed BABIP: infield fly rate and z-contact%. In the latter, he was tied with Verlander for the best mark in the majors at 79%.
4) Ichiro Suzuki matches his career high and hits 15 home runs. Counting the playoffs, Ichiro hit 6 home runs in 152 plate apperances in Yankee Stadium last year. All of these home runs were pulled to the right field short porch. Ichiro has said in the past that he could be home run hitter if he wanted, which is probably just crazy talk, but hey, that's why this is a bold prediction, right? Injuries in the Yankees' lineup put Ichiro hitting near the top of the order most of the season, so he gets his usual 700+ PAs. I think he is tempted by the short porch in right and modifies his approach to try and pull the ball a bit more.
5) Mike Trout. I couldn't have written this post without including a bold prediction for Mike Trout, right? So here it is. Mike Trout will beat his 2012 roto numbers in at least 2 out of 5 categories. That's bold enough for a guy coming off probably the most ridiculously good fantasy season we've seen, right? I was tempted to say 3 out of 5, but considering that he realistically has almost no chance of matching his .326 average last season, getting 2 out of the 4 counting stats would be pretty outstanding. I think the most likely 2 categories are runs (129) and RBIs (83), because that lineup he'll be hitting in is just ridiculous.
BONUS patently-obvious-anybody-who-disagrees-is-a-fool-duh-how-can-you-not-see-that-this-is-almost-definitely-going-to-happen projection:
Aaron Hicks' roto line this year - .327 AVG, 130 runs, 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 50 steals. Look familiar?
Bold enough? Too bold? What are your bold predictions for your own team?
Remember, these are supposed to be "bold predictions," not things that I realistically expect to happen. I'll have done pretty well if 1 out of 5 comes true, and practically be a psychic if I get 2 right. Basically, these are the 5 scenarios that I see as unlikely but possible, and that come true in my dreams and give me my first Durham Plays for Keeps fantasy title.
1) Erick Aybar ends the season as the #2 shortstop on player rater, 2nd only to Reyes. Originally I was only going to say that Aybar beats Andrus on player rater, but after actually looking up their scores the last few years I realized that they were quite close together, so that wouldn't have been a very bold prediction. Aybar finished 5th last year, without Reyes in the AL, so to make 2nd he'll need to pass Andrus, Zobrist, Escobar, and Jeter. This prediction is entirely based on the hope that Aybar gets to hit 2nd in the Angels lineup. That's an amazing spot to hit, after Trout and before Pujols, Hamilton, and Trumbo. Personally, I'd put Callaspo and his better OBP in that spot, but I'm not Mike Scioscia. If Aybar spends most of the season in the 2 hole, he could easily set career highs in runs (90+) and RBIs (70+). Combine that with his decent batting average, 25-30 steals, and 10+ home runs thanks to an increase in plate appearances, and you've got the #2 shortstop in the AL.
2) Sal Perez hits .300 with 20 home runs and 90 RBIs. This would be nothing more than Perez maintaining his 2012 pace over a full season spent hitting #5 behind Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. Perez turns 23 this year and has spent the last 2 years tearing up AAA and the majors as long as he's been healthy. I really like the Royals lineup this year and I think Perez will get a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.
3) R. A. Dickey wins 20 games. He did this last year, so what makes this a bold prediction? Well, Dickey is 38, has 1 successful season under his belt, throws a knuckleball, is missing a ligament, and is moving from the NL to the scary AL East. Also, 20 wins is just generally quite rare. There are usually only 1 or 2 20-game winners in the AL each year. However, he's pitching on the team with what I think will be the best offense in the AL East this year. The other AL East lineups, with the exception of Baltimore, aren't as scary as they used to be. Dickey rocked an awesome 3.18 SIERA last year, good for 4th among pitchers in the AL in 2013. He also did very well in 2 important categories for predicting a pitcher's allowed BABIP: infield fly rate and z-contact%. In the latter, he was tied with Verlander for the best mark in the majors at 79%.
4) Ichiro Suzuki matches his career high and hits 15 home runs. Counting the playoffs, Ichiro hit 6 home runs in 152 plate apperances in Yankee Stadium last year. All of these home runs were pulled to the right field short porch. Ichiro has said in the past that he could be home run hitter if he wanted, which is probably just crazy talk, but hey, that's why this is a bold prediction, right? Injuries in the Yankees' lineup put Ichiro hitting near the top of the order most of the season, so he gets his usual 700+ PAs. I think he is tempted by the short porch in right and modifies his approach to try and pull the ball a bit more.
5) Mike Trout. I couldn't have written this post without including a bold prediction for Mike Trout, right? So here it is. Mike Trout will beat his 2012 roto numbers in at least 2 out of 5 categories. That's bold enough for a guy coming off probably the most ridiculously good fantasy season we've seen, right? I was tempted to say 3 out of 5, but considering that he realistically has almost no chance of matching his .326 average last season, getting 2 out of the 4 counting stats would be pretty outstanding. I think the most likely 2 categories are runs (129) and RBIs (83), because that lineup he'll be hitting in is just ridiculous.
BONUS patently-obvious-anybody-who-disagrees-is-a-fool-duh-how-can-you-not-see-that-this-is-almost-definitely-going-to-happen projection:
Aaron Hicks' roto line this year - .327 AVG, 130 runs, 31 home runs, 84 RBIs, 50 steals. Look familiar?
Bold enough? Too bold? What are your bold predictions for your own team?
Monday, March 18, 2013
If you thought I was down on Mike Trout
You probably shouldn't read Ron Shandler's article. Despite being a lot more down on Trout than Luke, I think Shandler's projected line(15-20 HR, .285 average, 25 stolen bases) is "patently nuts" to use the phrase du season. Of course, so do some other folks, including Rotoauthority's Chris Liss.
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Reynolds for an SP
I'm looking for a back end starting pitcher and am willing to trade Mark Reynolds for one (perhaps five players who can play first is too many). Let me know if you're interestesd
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Draft recap
It was an interesting draft this year. There was a great deal more inflation in 2012 than any previous year (almost three times more, by my calculations) and it made for some pretty dramatic bids and extreme strategies. Although we had less dead money from cut keepers than previous years, we left more money on the table this year ($21, compared to $10 in 2012). That money would have yielded a player like CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Asdrubal Cabrera, or Torii Hunter.
Andrew came out swinging, picking up the top 2 hitters available in Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, while dropping $100 on the two. Considering Andrew spent $70 on his keepers, this was amazingly aggressive - an extreme stars and scrubs approach we hadn't seen in the draft before. Both Pujols broke the record high salary at $48, only to see it broken again moments later by our first $50 player in Miguel Cabrera. After dropping $68 on three starting pitchers and a closer, Andrew scraped the bottom of the barrel to assemble the rest of his roster. Thirteen players, more than half his roster, make $3 or less. Smoak is having a great spring and has some promise, but is currently penciled in as a start for Andrew. He also managed to amass three excellent middle relievers in Doolittle, McGee, and Albuquerque. Unfortunately, while Andrew's offense is projected to be excellent (31 points, 2nd overall), his pitching lags behind (10 points, 8th overall), with Andrew last in wins, strikeouts, and saves. If he can work the wire well, that could be addressed, but if Sale goes down or Lester continues to struggle, his lack of starting pitching depth could prove to be his undoing.
Best pick: Drew Smyly, $1. Despite being a hyped sleeper throughout this spring, Smyly avoided a bidding war that affected players such as Alex Cobb or Aaron Hicks.
Worst pick: Jon Lester, $18. Thanks to Red Sox inflation, Andrew had to pay nearly full freight on Lester, despite three seasons of steady decline from Lester.
After the one man spending spree dropped $100 on Pujols and Cabrera, I think we were all shell shocked a bit. CC Sabathia was nominated next and I was able to snag him for a very reasonable $21. I followed this up with spending top dollar on Justin Verlander ($37), setting a record high for pitchers in the process. Four players in, $158 had come off the board, including the top two hitters, the top pitcher, and another top five starter. I built the rest of my staff around the two big starters, relying on middle relievers and back end starters such as Ivan Nova, Lucas Harrell, and Alex Cobb to round out my staff. Offensively, I was very quiet until 30 picks in to the draft. With four outfield slots to fill, I focused on moderate outfielders who were older, coming off of injury, or both, with Hunter, Gardner, and Crisp rounding out my top 3 OF. Middle infield was a bit of a mess, as I was forced into bidding wars on the last viable starting second baseman and shortstop in Alexei Ramirez and Omar Infante, but both are slightly below average in just about every category.
Best pick: CC Sabathia, $21. Discussed above. Mark Reynolds, $1. As the first $1 player, Mark Reynolds isn't anything special, but he's good for 25 home runs a year. Chris Carter's upside is something like what you can expect from Mark Reynolds and he was $5
Worst pick: Alex Cobb, $10. Cobb was a player I had penciled in for less than $5, but a bidding war broke out. He is someone I am very high on, but given that Jarrod Parker and Josh Johnson both went for $13, and have considerably higher upside, Cobb is clearly overpaid.
Finally, Kate decided that someone who isn't a McDowell should end up with a player, and snagged new AL shortstop Jose Reyes. Reyes was far and away Kate's most expensive hitter at $34, as all of her other hitters were $11 or less. Kate was true to previous form, spending $80 on starting pitching alone, the standard allotment for an entire pitching staff. Her staff is elite, with 33 projected pitching points, and is led by two extremely high upside starters in Matt Moore and Max Scherzer. In an impressive run, she picked up Matt Moore, Joel Hanrahan, and Hiroki Kuroda on three consecutive picks. Unfortunately, her offense lags behind, and she is only projected to get 11 points in the hitting categories. She'll need a big breakout from Chris Carter, as well as the long awaited Colby Rasmus breakout to compete in home runs and RBI.
Best pick: Joe Nathan, $15. For some reason, folks thought Kate was autobidding on Nathan. The prices for lesser closers nearly matched or surpassed Nathan,so the $15 she spent looks awfully good in retrospect.
Worst pick: Mike Morse, $17. Morse is a groundball hitter, despite his power surge in 2011, and is moving to an unfavorable hitters park and a weak lineup. ESPN projects him to hit 25 home runs
Following Kate picking up Reyes, Spencer went big on Jose Bautista at $38. This kicked off a spending spree for Spencer and he spent $206 of his $260 budget in the next 40 picks. Picks ranged greatly, but included Mariano, coming off of his serious knee injury, as well as injury question marks David Ortiz (since announced out for the beginning of the season with heel inflammation) and Yankee outfielder Curtis Granderson, who is out until May with a broken forearm. Spencer then was quiet for the next 50 picks, but was disciplined enough to have money to outbid folks on the $1-$2 players at the end of the draft.
Best pick: Curtis Granderson, $16. Granted, Granderson is injured, but since it is a bone injury the recovery time frame is much clearer than, say, Mark Teixeira's wrist. Healthy, Granderson would have likely been a $25-$30 player, and he's missing much less than half a season. By my math, that means Spencer did well there.
Worst pick: Howie Kendrick, $15. Howie Kendrick at $15 isn't a terrible price, but it means that Spencer was spending $15 of his remaining $38 on a second basemen while there were still many similar players remaining. David Ortiz was a big gamble, given the question marks surrounding his Achilles, as well.
Continuing the trend of teams spending money in bunches, Taylor picked up Evan Longoria as the 8th player nominated in the auction for $30, and quickly followed with Dustin Pedroia ($35) and Jeff Weaver ($26). Taylor was quiet for awhile following Weaver, but picked up Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, and Paul Konerko in quick succession. Taylor spaced his picks out fairly well from then on, focusing on snagging bargains as they came up, with the occasional slight overpay for starting pitching, which appears to be inevitable in our league. He also grabbed super prospect Jurickson Profar for $6, hoping for an opportunity to present itself in Texas.
Best pick: Josh Johnson, $13. Johnson may very well blow up and be a disaster this year as he transitions to the AL East, but most of the pitchers in the $5-$15 range could end up worthless as well. Few have the Cy Young potential that Johnson has, though.
Worst pick: Jered Weaver, $26. Somehow, Jered Weaver puts up good a good ERA and WHIP, despite mediocre strikeout rates. Even if that continues, Weaver is effectively a three category pitcher at this point, despite his reputation as an ace. His K/9 has steadily fallen since his elite 2010 (9.35) and was actually below league average in 2012 (6.77).
Mark was the 6th player to draft a player, grabbing Felix Hernandez who was the 8th nominated player for $33. Mark picked up three of the five players going from 48-52, and appeared to get a solid value in Matt Wieters for $14. Catcher was fairly well picked over by keepers and Wieters was head and shoulders above the other catchers available, so to get him for $14 was very nice. Throughout the rest of the draft Mark was consistently active, avoiding any big runs or conspicuous absences. Mark Teixeira at $13 could either provide an excellent, cheap power source or he could be a $13 waste of money, given how hard wrist injuries are to predict, particularly for power hitters.
Best pick: Matt Wieters,$14. See above. Nelson Cruz at $24 could also return solid value, if Cruz can reverse some of his 2012 decline and return to 25+ home runs. He does have the BioGenesis storyline lurking, though.
Worst pick: Michael Bourn, $31. Not quite sure what happened here, but the first elite speed player managed to kick off a brutal bidding war. Bourn ended up as the second highest paid outfielder, trailing only Jose Bautista at $37. Thirty one dollars for a player who only contributes in two categories is a huge reach, to me.
Luke was the 7th manager to draft a player, snagging R.A. Dickey at the relative bargain of $22. With other pitchers in this tier going for north of $25, except for CC Sabathia, Dickey is a huge bargain. Unlike CC, Dickey also does not have any injury question marks, except for the fact that he's pitched his entire career without an ulnar collateral ligament, which really ought to be extremely important for any pitcher, according to all kinds of specialists. Despite not having his UCL, the ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery, Dickey has been pitching without issue for his entire life, so it popping up now seems awfully unlikely. Generally speaking, Luke was at the extremes of the age spectrum, going with either very old or very young players. Jeter, Ichiro, Balfour, Swisher, Youkilis, and Pettitte bring up the ranks for the old guys, while Perez, Giavotella, Straily, Griffin, Hicks, and Bauer all retain rookie eligibility or lost it last year.
Best pick: Dickey, $22. See above, but if Dickey can even match his 2011 line, Luke should be turning an awfully nice profit.
Worst pick: No one, $12. Luke left $12 on the table, more than everyone else combined. Some of this can probably be attributed to his technical difficulties, but $12 can go a long, long way in an auction. Aaron Hicks, $9. Hicks made a splash by hitting 3 home runs in a game and looks like he could win the Twins CF job for opening day. Hicks hasn't played above AA, though, and relied on a high BABIP to maintain a passable average. He could go double digits in homers and steals, but hit .240. Given that Drew Stubbs went for 1/3 of the price, it is hard to find much value there. In his defense, though, since Luke had money to spend at that point in the draft, this is hardly a terrible pick given the circumstances.
Finally, we get to Caleb. Twenty one players had been nominated and $588 spent on them before Caleb successfully snagged Alex Rios ($27). That figure is a bit above projections, but Rios showed last year that he can be an elite all around contributor. Caleb is also banking on a bounceback from Elvis Andrus, whose SB total dropped precipitously, and continued growth from Houston's second baseman Jose Altuve ($25). Caleb may have been burned by waiting so long. He is the only player who did not draft a $30 player and his top 3 drafted players (Rios, Andrus, and Altuve) all fall short of elite. Granted, Caleb did have a nice set of elite players to begin with, such as David Price and Prince Fielder, but an opportunity may have been missed by waiting so long.
Best pick: Jarrod Parker, $13. Parker is young and has considerable upside. His underlying numbers and his minor league stats indicate he could be much more than he showed in his rookie season.
Worst pick: Elvis Andrus, $23. Andrus used to be a consistent 30 stolen base player. Given that he is only 24, it is odd to see such a big decline in stolen bases, but he has filled out considerably in the last two years and doesn't seem to have the speed he one did. Not only did he only steal 21 bases last year, he was also caught 10 times. Last year Andrus was the 4th best shortstop, in a weak year for the position overall, finishing behind Jeter ($8) and Zobrist and Escobar, both of whom were kept.
Andrew came out swinging, picking up the top 2 hitters available in Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, while dropping $100 on the two. Considering Andrew spent $70 on his keepers, this was amazingly aggressive - an extreme stars and scrubs approach we hadn't seen in the draft before. Both Pujols broke the record high salary at $48, only to see it broken again moments later by our first $50 player in Miguel Cabrera. After dropping $68 on three starting pitchers and a closer, Andrew scraped the bottom of the barrel to assemble the rest of his roster. Thirteen players, more than half his roster, make $3 or less. Smoak is having a great spring and has some promise, but is currently penciled in as a start for Andrew. He also managed to amass three excellent middle relievers in Doolittle, McGee, and Albuquerque. Unfortunately, while Andrew's offense is projected to be excellent (31 points, 2nd overall), his pitching lags behind (10 points, 8th overall), with Andrew last in wins, strikeouts, and saves. If he can work the wire well, that could be addressed, but if Sale goes down or Lester continues to struggle, his lack of starting pitching depth could prove to be his undoing.
Best pick: Drew Smyly, $1. Despite being a hyped sleeper throughout this spring, Smyly avoided a bidding war that affected players such as Alex Cobb or Aaron Hicks.
Worst pick: Jon Lester, $18. Thanks to Red Sox inflation, Andrew had to pay nearly full freight on Lester, despite three seasons of steady decline from Lester.
After the one man spending spree dropped $100 on Pujols and Cabrera, I think we were all shell shocked a bit. CC Sabathia was nominated next and I was able to snag him for a very reasonable $21. I followed this up with spending top dollar on Justin Verlander ($37), setting a record high for pitchers in the process. Four players in, $158 had come off the board, including the top two hitters, the top pitcher, and another top five starter. I built the rest of my staff around the two big starters, relying on middle relievers and back end starters such as Ivan Nova, Lucas Harrell, and Alex Cobb to round out my staff. Offensively, I was very quiet until 30 picks in to the draft. With four outfield slots to fill, I focused on moderate outfielders who were older, coming off of injury, or both, with Hunter, Gardner, and Crisp rounding out my top 3 OF. Middle infield was a bit of a mess, as I was forced into bidding wars on the last viable starting second baseman and shortstop in Alexei Ramirez and Omar Infante, but both are slightly below average in just about every category.
Best pick: CC Sabathia, $21. Discussed above. Mark Reynolds, $1. As the first $1 player, Mark Reynolds isn't anything special, but he's good for 25 home runs a year. Chris Carter's upside is something like what you can expect from Mark Reynolds and he was $5
Worst pick: Alex Cobb, $10. Cobb was a player I had penciled in for less than $5, but a bidding war broke out. He is someone I am very high on, but given that Jarrod Parker and Josh Johnson both went for $13, and have considerably higher upside, Cobb is clearly overpaid.
Finally, Kate decided that someone who isn't a McDowell should end up with a player, and snagged new AL shortstop Jose Reyes. Reyes was far and away Kate's most expensive hitter at $34, as all of her other hitters were $11 or less. Kate was true to previous form, spending $80 on starting pitching alone, the standard allotment for an entire pitching staff. Her staff is elite, with 33 projected pitching points, and is led by two extremely high upside starters in Matt Moore and Max Scherzer. In an impressive run, she picked up Matt Moore, Joel Hanrahan, and Hiroki Kuroda on three consecutive picks. Unfortunately, her offense lags behind, and she is only projected to get 11 points in the hitting categories. She'll need a big breakout from Chris Carter, as well as the long awaited Colby Rasmus breakout to compete in home runs and RBI.
Best pick: Joe Nathan, $15. For some reason, folks thought Kate was autobidding on Nathan. The prices for lesser closers nearly matched or surpassed Nathan,so the $15 she spent looks awfully good in retrospect.
Worst pick: Mike Morse, $17. Morse is a groundball hitter, despite his power surge in 2011, and is moving to an unfavorable hitters park and a weak lineup. ESPN projects him to hit 25 home runs
Following Kate picking up Reyes, Spencer went big on Jose Bautista at $38. This kicked off a spending spree for Spencer and he spent $206 of his $260 budget in the next 40 picks. Picks ranged greatly, but included Mariano, coming off of his serious knee injury, as well as injury question marks David Ortiz (since announced out for the beginning of the season with heel inflammation) and Yankee outfielder Curtis Granderson, who is out until May with a broken forearm. Spencer then was quiet for the next 50 picks, but was disciplined enough to have money to outbid folks on the $1-$2 players at the end of the draft.
Best pick: Curtis Granderson, $16. Granted, Granderson is injured, but since it is a bone injury the recovery time frame is much clearer than, say, Mark Teixeira's wrist. Healthy, Granderson would have likely been a $25-$30 player, and he's missing much less than half a season. By my math, that means Spencer did well there.
Worst pick: Howie Kendrick, $15. Howie Kendrick at $15 isn't a terrible price, but it means that Spencer was spending $15 of his remaining $38 on a second basemen while there were still many similar players remaining. David Ortiz was a big gamble, given the question marks surrounding his Achilles, as well.
Continuing the trend of teams spending money in bunches, Taylor picked up Evan Longoria as the 8th player nominated in the auction for $30, and quickly followed with Dustin Pedroia ($35) and Jeff Weaver ($26). Taylor was quiet for awhile following Weaver, but picked up Melky Cabrera, Josh Johnson, and Paul Konerko in quick succession. Taylor spaced his picks out fairly well from then on, focusing on snagging bargains as they came up, with the occasional slight overpay for starting pitching, which appears to be inevitable in our league. He also grabbed super prospect Jurickson Profar for $6, hoping for an opportunity to present itself in Texas.
Best pick: Josh Johnson, $13. Johnson may very well blow up and be a disaster this year as he transitions to the AL East, but most of the pitchers in the $5-$15 range could end up worthless as well. Few have the Cy Young potential that Johnson has, though.
Worst pick: Jered Weaver, $26. Somehow, Jered Weaver puts up good a good ERA and WHIP, despite mediocre strikeout rates. Even if that continues, Weaver is effectively a three category pitcher at this point, despite his reputation as an ace. His K/9 has steadily fallen since his elite 2010 (9.35) and was actually below league average in 2012 (6.77).
Mark was the 6th player to draft a player, grabbing Felix Hernandez who was the 8th nominated player for $33. Mark picked up three of the five players going from 48-52, and appeared to get a solid value in Matt Wieters for $14. Catcher was fairly well picked over by keepers and Wieters was head and shoulders above the other catchers available, so to get him for $14 was very nice. Throughout the rest of the draft Mark was consistently active, avoiding any big runs or conspicuous absences. Mark Teixeira at $13 could either provide an excellent, cheap power source or he could be a $13 waste of money, given how hard wrist injuries are to predict, particularly for power hitters.
Best pick: Matt Wieters,$14. See above. Nelson Cruz at $24 could also return solid value, if Cruz can reverse some of his 2012 decline and return to 25+ home runs. He does have the BioGenesis storyline lurking, though.
Worst pick: Michael Bourn, $31. Not quite sure what happened here, but the first elite speed player managed to kick off a brutal bidding war. Bourn ended up as the second highest paid outfielder, trailing only Jose Bautista at $37. Thirty one dollars for a player who only contributes in two categories is a huge reach, to me.
Luke was the 7th manager to draft a player, snagging R.A. Dickey at the relative bargain of $22. With other pitchers in this tier going for north of $25, except for CC Sabathia, Dickey is a huge bargain. Unlike CC, Dickey also does not have any injury question marks, except for the fact that he's pitched his entire career without an ulnar collateral ligament, which really ought to be extremely important for any pitcher, according to all kinds of specialists. Despite not having his UCL, the ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery, Dickey has been pitching without issue for his entire life, so it popping up now seems awfully unlikely. Generally speaking, Luke was at the extremes of the age spectrum, going with either very old or very young players. Jeter, Ichiro, Balfour, Swisher, Youkilis, and Pettitte bring up the ranks for the old guys, while Perez, Giavotella, Straily, Griffin, Hicks, and Bauer all retain rookie eligibility or lost it last year.
Best pick: Dickey, $22. See above, but if Dickey can even match his 2011 line, Luke should be turning an awfully nice profit.
Worst pick: No one, $12. Luke left $12 on the table, more than everyone else combined. Some of this can probably be attributed to his technical difficulties, but $12 can go a long, long way in an auction. Aaron Hicks, $9. Hicks made a splash by hitting 3 home runs in a game and looks like he could win the Twins CF job for opening day. Hicks hasn't played above AA, though, and relied on a high BABIP to maintain a passable average. He could go double digits in homers and steals, but hit .240. Given that Drew Stubbs went for 1/3 of the price, it is hard to find much value there. In his defense, though, since Luke had money to spend at that point in the draft, this is hardly a terrible pick given the circumstances.
Finally, we get to Caleb. Twenty one players had been nominated and $588 spent on them before Caleb successfully snagged Alex Rios ($27). That figure is a bit above projections, but Rios showed last year that he can be an elite all around contributor. Caleb is also banking on a bounceback from Elvis Andrus, whose SB total dropped precipitously, and continued growth from Houston's second baseman Jose Altuve ($25). Caleb may have been burned by waiting so long. He is the only player who did not draft a $30 player and his top 3 drafted players (Rios, Andrus, and Altuve) all fall short of elite. Granted, Caleb did have a nice set of elite players to begin with, such as David Price and Prince Fielder, but an opportunity may have been missed by waiting so long.
Best pick: Jarrod Parker, $13. Parker is young and has considerable upside. His underlying numbers and his minor league stats indicate he could be much more than he showed in his rookie season.
Worst pick: Elvis Andrus, $23. Andrus used to be a consistent 30 stolen base player. Given that he is only 24, it is odd to see such a big decline in stolen bases, but he has filled out considerably in the last two years and doesn't seem to have the speed he one did. Not only did he only steal 21 bases last year, he was also caught 10 times. Last year Andrus was the 4th best shortstop, in a weak year for the position overall, finishing behind Jeter ($8) and Zobrist and Escobar, both of whom were kept.
ESPN Projected Standings
Minor edits to the standings: I noticed that I was not dealing with ties properly, so when there was a tie neither team received the half point they should have. As a result, Bill (+0.5), Taylor (+0.5), and Luke (+1) gain points from ties in home runs and saves. The overall standings remain unchanged, however.
Thanks to Milly waking me nice and early this morning, we now have ESPN projected standings based on starters, instead of the entire roster, as they did during the draft. Just a reminder, things can change an awful lot from these projections. While Caleb was projected to win and did so, I ended up in second and Luke ended up in third, despite being projected to finish last and fifth, respectively. I've also included playing time estimates (AB and IP), to give you an idea of which teams are being hurt by players projected to be part timers. Spencer, with Davis, Bautista, Lind and Ortiz with less than full time projections, and Andrew, with Smoak, Drew, and Ellsbury with limited PT, suffer the most for AB. Andrew and I lag behind in innings, although both of us are middle of the pack in K/9.
Without further ado, here are the raw numbers:
And the standings:
And finally, the overall standings:
Tighter than last year, across the board! Looking forward to the year. And congrats, Spencer, on not being last (barely)!
Thanks to Milly waking me nice and early this morning, we now have ESPN projected standings based on starters, instead of the entire roster, as they did during the draft. Just a reminder, things can change an awful lot from these projections. While Caleb was projected to win and did so, I ended up in second and Luke ended up in third, despite being projected to finish last and fifth, respectively. I've also included playing time estimates (AB and IP), to give you an idea of which teams are being hurt by players projected to be part timers. Spencer, with Davis, Bautista, Lind and Ortiz with less than full time projections, and Andrew, with Smoak, Drew, and Ellsbury with limited PT, suffer the most for AB. Andrew and I lag behind in innings, although both of us are middle of the pack in K/9.
Without further ado, here are the raw numbers:
| Hitting | |||||||
| Rank | Team | AB | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| 1 | Bill | 5961 | 0.279 | 856 | 218 | 832 | 159 |
| 5 | Mark | 6043 | 0.269 | 892 | 219 | 804 | 172 |
| 7 | Spencer | 5704 | 0.270 | 806 | 216 | 773 | 141 |
| 4 | Kate | 5963 | 0.270 | 829 | 209 | 775 | 108 |
| 6 | Andrew | 5894 | 0.278 | 893 | 229 | 834 | 138 |
| 2 | Taylor | 6038 | 0.283 | 825 | 196 | 807 | 144 |
| 3 | Luke | 6043 | 0.283 | 894 | 218 | 824 | 146 |
| 8 | Caleb | 5880 | 0.277 | 842 | 210 | 789 | 121 |
| Pitching | |||||||
| Rank | Team | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | W | SV |
| 1 | Bill | 1050 | 3.499 | 1.227 | 978 | 72 | 105 |
| 5 | Mark | 1166 | 3.834 | 1.272 | 1069 | 77 | 78 |
| 7 | Spencer | 1100 | 3.542 | 1.235 | 1038 | 78 | 83 |
| 4 | Kate | 1188 | 3.563 | 1.212 | 1118 | 86 | 96 |
| 6 | Andrew | 1032 | 3.751 | 1.248 | 943 | 60 | 40 |
| 2 | Taylor | 1335 | 3.554 | 1.227 | 1154 | 96 | 46 |
| 3 | Luke | 1163 | 3.753 | 1.265 | 1029 | 76 | 46 |
| 8 | Caleb | 1307 | 3.574 | 1.265 | 1104 | 92 | 42 |
And the standings:
| Hitting | |||||||
| Rank | Team | AB | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB |
| 1 | Bill | 5961 | 6 | 5 | 5.5 | 7 | 7 |
| 5 | Mark | 6043 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | Spencer | 5704 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kate | 5963 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Andrew | 5894 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| 2 | Taylor | 6038 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 | Luke | 6043 | 8 | 8 | 5.5 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Caleb | 5880 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Pitching | |||||||
| Rank | Team | IP | ERA | WHIP | K | W | SV |
| 1 | Bill | 1050 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Mark | 1166 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Spencer | 1100 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Kate | 1188 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | Andrew | 1032 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Taylor | 1335 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 3.5 |
| 3 | Luke | 1163 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Caleb | 1307 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
And finally, the overall standings:
| Team | Hitting | Pitching | Total |
| Bill | 30.5 | 26 | 56.5 |
| Taylor | 20 | 32.5 | 52.5 |
| Luke | 33.5 | 13.5 | 47 |
| Kate | 11 | 33 | 44 |
| Mark | 26 | 16 | 42 |
| Andrew | 31 | 10 | 41 |
| Spencer | 12 | 27 | 39 |
| Caleb | 16 | 22 | 38 |
Tighter than last year, across the board! Looking forward to the year. And congrats, Spencer, on not being last (barely)!
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Who has the best keepers? It all depends on who you ask
For my draft board, I'm using a composite of a few projections. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how the different projection systems viewed our keepers.
First, a few assumptions. Many of these systems had back end keepers listed as negative values. In order to prevent very strange things from happening to the overall valuations, I've simply listed players as being worth $0 if the projection has the below $0. Second, these values are calculated assuming 5 SP, 2 RP, 1 P - which matches the way we tend to fill out our rosters. For whatever reason, a lot of these projection systems seem to think you can go all middle relievers and be competitive in pitching, despite what common sense would tell you. I think it may have something to do with many of them being very conservative about wins. While wins are inherently hard to predict, I think the conservative projections minimize the difference in reliever wins and starter wins.
To start out, Luke is #1 in two of the three projections. Unsurprisingly, Mike Trout leads the way. Depressingly, the value of Mike Trout surpasses the total value of keepers for 5 of the 7 other teams, just edging out Andrew and Mark, who come in 4th and 5th, respectively.
Taylor comes in at #2, thanks to his impressive array of value keepers, all at $11 or lower. ESPN's projections are unfavorable for de Aza and Escobar, in particular, but Taylor's overall value is fairly consistent across all three projections. Across the board, all three systems rate Cespedes as Taylor's best keeper.
As far as my keepers go, it all depends on who you believe. ESPN projections adore my keepers, in part because those values seem to highly value elite players, and have me at 2nd overall in terms of value. Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand, is not a fan of Beltre, Butler, or Santana, and pegs me at having the second WORST value overall. BP actually has those three players as providing negative value, with their salaries outstripping expected returns by almost $10. The total difference in valuation is an astounding $50. All three agree that Edwin Encarnacion is by far my best keeper.
In fourth we have Andrew, Mr. Consistency, despite his former team name. Amazingly, there is a $4 difference between his most favorable projection (ESPN) and his least favorable (BP). In fact, all of his players are remarkably consistent, falling in a fairly tight window of values. BP departs from the other two by rating Ellsbury as a positive and is very down on Willingham (but still projects value), but otherwise there is a great deal of consensus. Alex Gordon comes in at #1 in all three projections.
In fifth, we have Mark's keepers, led by Austin Jackson at $6. None of the other players provide a substantial amount of value individually, but he also has no real holes in his keepers. Mark also is in good shape to fill difficult positions. Both outfield and firstbase were decimated by large numbers of kept players, plus relief pitcher and shortstop are always a disaster. To top it off, Zobrist's ability to play SS, 2B, and OF gives him spectacular flexibility in the draft to pick up values as he sees them, without worrying as much about positional eligibility.
In sixth, Caleb stockpiles elite players, but also pays a good deal for them. While that does limit his upside, he has an enviable core of an elite first baseman, starting pitcher, and catcher to build around. Prince Fielder is rated as his top keeper, followed closely by Price and Milone.
Kate comes in at 7th. In her case, her overall valuation is hurt by a very low rating from Baseball Prospectus, how does not see good things coming for Scherzer (negative value overall) or Viciedo. She can take solace in the fact that the other two projections have her keepers much more highly rated, with solid returns for Peavy and Victor Martinez, her best keeper overall. She also had the second highest amount of variability in her keeper values. As interesting note, Ian Kinsler is her most consistently valued player, something that shocked me considering how up and down his career has been. However, all three projections have him in a $3 window. His actual production over the past several years has not been nearly so consistent, though, and Kinsler could provide anything between $15 worth of value and a $5 loss without me being too surprised.
Finally, we come to Spencer. Spencer has some nice value, particularly in Desmond Jennings. Unfortunately for Spencer, Steamer projections really don't like his keepers - rating them as only providing a meager $2. They are very low on Anderson ($3 value) and don't rank Ogando.
First, a few assumptions. Many of these systems had back end keepers listed as negative values. In order to prevent very strange things from happening to the overall valuations, I've simply listed players as being worth $0 if the projection has the below $0. Second, these values are calculated assuming 5 SP, 2 RP, 1 P - which matches the way we tend to fill out our rosters. For whatever reason, a lot of these projection systems seem to think you can go all middle relievers and be competitive in pitching, despite what common sense would tell you. I think it may have something to do with many of them being very conservative about wins. While wins are inherently hard to predict, I think the conservative projections minimize the difference in reliever wins and starter wins.
To start out, Luke is #1 in two of the three projections. Unsurprisingly, Mike Trout leads the way. Depressingly, the value of Mike Trout surpasses the total value of keepers for 5 of the 7 other teams, just edging out Andrew and Mark, who come in 4th and 5th, respectively.
Taylor comes in at #2, thanks to his impressive array of value keepers, all at $11 or lower. ESPN's projections are unfavorable for de Aza and Escobar, in particular, but Taylor's overall value is fairly consistent across all three projections. Across the board, all three systems rate Cespedes as Taylor's best keeper.
As far as my keepers go, it all depends on who you believe. ESPN projections adore my keepers, in part because those values seem to highly value elite players, and have me at 2nd overall in terms of value. Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand, is not a fan of Beltre, Butler, or Santana, and pegs me at having the second WORST value overall. BP actually has those three players as providing negative value, with their salaries outstripping expected returns by almost $10. The total difference in valuation is an astounding $50. All three agree that Edwin Encarnacion is by far my best keeper.
In fourth we have Andrew, Mr. Consistency, despite his former team name. Amazingly, there is a $4 difference between his most favorable projection (ESPN) and his least favorable (BP). In fact, all of his players are remarkably consistent, falling in a fairly tight window of values. BP departs from the other two by rating Ellsbury as a positive and is very down on Willingham (but still projects value), but otherwise there is a great deal of consensus. Alex Gordon comes in at #1 in all three projections.
In fifth, we have Mark's keepers, led by Austin Jackson at $6. None of the other players provide a substantial amount of value individually, but he also has no real holes in his keepers. Mark also is in good shape to fill difficult positions. Both outfield and firstbase were decimated by large numbers of kept players, plus relief pitcher and shortstop are always a disaster. To top it off, Zobrist's ability to play SS, 2B, and OF gives him spectacular flexibility in the draft to pick up values as he sees them, without worrying as much about positional eligibility.
In sixth, Caleb stockpiles elite players, but also pays a good deal for them. While that does limit his upside, he has an enviable core of an elite first baseman, starting pitcher, and catcher to build around. Prince Fielder is rated as his top keeper, followed closely by Price and Milone.
Kate comes in at 7th. In her case, her overall valuation is hurt by a very low rating from Baseball Prospectus, how does not see good things coming for Scherzer (negative value overall) or Viciedo. She can take solace in the fact that the other two projections have her keepers much more highly rated, with solid returns for Peavy and Victor Martinez, her best keeper overall. She also had the second highest amount of variability in her keeper values. As interesting note, Ian Kinsler is her most consistently valued player, something that shocked me considering how up and down his career has been. However, all three projections have him in a $3 window. His actual production over the past several years has not been nearly so consistent, though, and Kinsler could provide anything between $15 worth of value and a $5 loss without me being too surprised.
Finally, we come to Spencer. Spencer has some nice value, particularly in Desmond Jennings. Unfortunately for Spencer, Steamer projections really don't like his keepers - rating them as only providing a meager $2. They are very low on Anderson ($3 value) and don't rank Ogando.
Sunday, March 3, 2013
2013 Keepers are in!
The 2013 keepers are in now, and I've updated their salaries to reflect multi-year keepers and free agents. We only have two multi-year keepers, a record low. Taylor kept Yoenis Cespedes for two years at $11, and Luke kept Mike Trout for three years at $19. Also, we have no dead money this year, as no one on a multiyear deal was cut.
Prince Fielder ($30) was the most expensive keeper, followed closely by Robinson Cano ($29) and the second year of Ellsbury's two year deal from 2011 ($29). Teams on average spent $60, although there is a lot of divergence between different teams. Taylor went with the all value approach, despite opting for a two year deal with Cespedes, and only spent $28 on his five players. Amazingly, those five players include two top 15 outfielders, a top 5 or so closer, and a rock solid starting pitcher, all for less than three individual players went for in the draft.
Also, despite being passed around like our fantasy version of Edwin Jackson, Manny Machado did not end up getting kept by Mark. Nor did Josh Reddick by Kate, who was included in the swap for Edwin Encarnacion along with Ian Kinsler and Jake Peavy. Otherwise, all the players involved in trades were kept, including a last minute deal between Andrew and Taylor that sent Alcides Escobar ($1) and Doug Fister ($4) for Alex Gordon ($6), who is in the second year of a two year deal.
Positionally, first base and outfield lead the way. A total of seven first basemen were kept (including Trumbo, who is also outfield eligible), and Bill kept three players who can only play first (Hosmer, Butler, and Encarnacion), filling both his infield and utility spots. But watch out for that power, Bill's five keepers project to hit 145 home runs, and even top Luke's projected offensive production from his keepers in all categories but steals. Albert Pujols remains available at the top of the first base list, but otherwise,
The situation may be worse at outfield. Of the top 10 per ESPN rankings, eight are kept, leaving only injury question mark Jose Bautista and new AL player Michael Bourn available in the draft. Ellsbury, Hamilton, Jones, and Zobrist are all reasonably close to their ESPN valuations, but there is considerable value from Trout, Gordon, De Aza, Jennings, Jackson, and Cespedes.
Another thin position will be third base, with four starters kept. Beltre is really the only one you could consider a top tier third basemen, and is paid as such, and while middle tier third base options such as Lawrie, Middlebrooks, or Moustakas don't offer massive amounts of value the outfield keepers do, the picking are slim if you don't have a third basemen in the fold. Head and shoulders above everyone else at the position is Miguel Cabrera, but he is coming off of one of his best fantasy seasons of his career and went for a record setting $44 last year. Evan Longoria is also available, but he is coming off of a lost season due to hamstring woes. After that, things get ugly, with out of nowhere player Kyle Seager at #6 and very, very young rookie Manny Machado at #7. At third base, it may be go big or go home.
One week to the draft! Now that keepers are in, it is time to finalize those boards and come up with a plan of attack. Good luck to everyone.
Prince Fielder ($30) was the most expensive keeper, followed closely by Robinson Cano ($29) and the second year of Ellsbury's two year deal from 2011 ($29). Teams on average spent $60, although there is a lot of divergence between different teams. Taylor went with the all value approach, despite opting for a two year deal with Cespedes, and only spent $28 on his five players. Amazingly, those five players include two top 15 outfielders, a top 5 or so closer, and a rock solid starting pitcher, all for less than three individual players went for in the draft.
Also, despite being passed around like our fantasy version of Edwin Jackson, Manny Machado did not end up getting kept by Mark. Nor did Josh Reddick by Kate, who was included in the swap for Edwin Encarnacion along with Ian Kinsler and Jake Peavy. Otherwise, all the players involved in trades were kept, including a last minute deal between Andrew and Taylor that sent Alcides Escobar ($1) and Doug Fister ($4) for Alex Gordon ($6), who is in the second year of a two year deal.
Positionally, first base and outfield lead the way. A total of seven first basemen were kept (including Trumbo, who is also outfield eligible), and Bill kept three players who can only play first (Hosmer, Butler, and Encarnacion), filling both his infield and utility spots. But watch out for that power, Bill's five keepers project to hit 145 home runs, and even top Luke's projected offensive production from his keepers in all categories but steals. Albert Pujols remains available at the top of the first base list, but otherwise,
The situation may be worse at outfield. Of the top 10 per ESPN rankings, eight are kept, leaving only injury question mark Jose Bautista and new AL player Michael Bourn available in the draft. Ellsbury, Hamilton, Jones, and Zobrist are all reasonably close to their ESPN valuations, but there is considerable value from Trout, Gordon, De Aza, Jennings, Jackson, and Cespedes.
Another thin position will be third base, with four starters kept. Beltre is really the only one you could consider a top tier third basemen, and is paid as such, and while middle tier third base options such as Lawrie, Middlebrooks, or Moustakas don't offer massive amounts of value the outfield keepers do, the picking are slim if you don't have a third basemen in the fold. Head and shoulders above everyone else at the position is Miguel Cabrera, but he is coming off of one of his best fantasy seasons of his career and went for a record setting $44 last year. Evan Longoria is also available, but he is coming off of a lost season due to hamstring woes. After that, things get ugly, with out of nowhere player Kyle Seager at #6 and very, very young rookie Manny Machado at #7. At third base, it may be go big or go home.
One week to the draft! Now that keepers are in, it is time to finalize those boards and come up with a plan of attack. Good luck to everyone.
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