I expected, coming in to this exercise, to find plenty of obvious best and worst picks, but it has turned out to be more challenging than I anticipated. The very highest paid players were first basemen, but after inflation adjustments, they all have a decent shot at providing value equal to their draft cost. That’s pretty remarkable, given that you are generally paying for floor more than ceiling for the top players. The following are my best and worst picks for each team, along with a few other players of note. I hope to do more of an overall write up covering team strengths and weaknesses, but that takes a little more work.
Spencer
Best Pick- No tremendous bargains, but plenty of solid picks, especially at pitcher. The best pick is probably Delmon Young at $6, as he could produce similar numbers to guys like Brennan Boesch for a few dollars less.
Worst pick- Carl Crawford, $24. This was before it came out that Crawford is likely to miss all of April, but Crawford was the MOST expensive outfielder drafted, tied with Adam Jones. It’s certainly possible that this pick will work out, but it’s a big risk to take, especially since the injury is to Crawford’s wrist.
Notable players- Glenn Perkins at $2 could be a steal. Capps has some pretty unremarkable numbers, and while most projection systems aren’t too kind to Perkins (Zips has him at a 4.08 ERA and unremarkable K rates), he was lights out last season (K:BB of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.23 in spite of some bad luck on balls in play). If Minnesota falls out of contention or if Capps struggles out of the gate Perkins is first in line to get the save chances.
Taylor
Best pick-I’m going to take the cop out answer here and say Taylor’s bullpen building. For a total of $13 Taylor has three great ratio guys and four possible closers. Benoit (neatly handcuffing Valverde and his declining numbers), Adams, and Reed should be great for Ks and all are likely next in line to close. He also grabbed Fuentes for a $1. That said, it’s a good thing Taylor has all those relievers, as the only current closer he has is Valverde. It is going to be VERY interesting to see how many saves Taylor gets this season- I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up first or last depending on how things break.
Worst pick- Nick Markakis $17. Not terrible, but unless he starts doing a lot more of something, it looks like an overpay, especially given the relatively high replacement level at outfield.
Notable players- Anthony Gose at $1. Gose could be helpful this season to bolster Taylor’s SB totals, though he might hit 0.230 doing it. If Gose can improve on his contact issues he could be an outstanding keeper, but he’s currently behind Eric Thames, Rajai Davis, and even the demoted Travis Snider.
Bill
Best pick- Bartolo Colon at $2. I’m not entirely sure how this happened, since he was nominated fairly early in the draft, but he’s a steal at that price.. CC Sabathia at $23 gets an honorable mention. Between the innings he provides (230+ each of the past five seasons), plus the solid ERA, WHIP, and K rate make him an excellent addition. He wouldn’t be my pick to be the #1 pitcher, but if I had to pick someone to be in the top 5, it might be Sabathia.
Worst pick- Does Travis Snider count? In all seriousness, Choo at $23 and Adam Jones at $24 were expensive, especially given the money Bill has in Snider and Cruz, but both have pretty solid floors. Bill has since flipped Adam Jones and Austin Jackson to Mark for Billy Butler and Brandon McCarthy, bolstering his pitching staff.
Notable players- There are so many players to list here- it’s almost like we have a similar approach to fantasy baseball! Kipnis at $9 has the upside to be a top 5 2B this season and is a solid keeper. I also have to mention his rotation gambles- Matusz at $2 could end up in the top 30, Hughes at $7 has similar upside, and he made excellent use of the DL to snag Brett Anderson at $1, who could contribute 80 innings or so at the end of the year.
Caleb
Best Pick- Jemile Weeks $5. I had Weeks pretty close to Kelly Johnson in value, and yet he went for $6 less. By waiting on the 2B market, Caleb was able to get a solid starter for cheap, especially if any of Weeks’ spring training power (0.636 slugging, 0.272 ISO) carries over into the regular season. It also gives him the flexibility of moving Kendrick to the OF if he has issues there.
Worst pick- Alex Rios $14/Torii Hunter $17. Caleb had some solid OF picks (Rasums $11, Willingham $11, Cain $4, Cody Ross $1), but Alex Rios in particular looks pretty ugly, especially when Caleb already had Hunter, Rasmus, and Willingham at that point. Then again, Rios might decide to try for a new manager and this pick could work out. Hunter is on the wrong end of the aging curve, and his average has been dropping for the past three seasons
Notable players- At $4, Lorenzo Cain is looking like a bargain. This spring he’s shown some of the power he had in the minors, and he’s certainly a possibility to hit 15 hr and steal 30 bases. His playing time is less certain than a guy like Peter Bourjos (drafted by me, $14) the ceiling is similar and the $10 difference in price is huge. Caleb’s pitching staff is also solid- Morrow ($18) could be this year’s James Shields, and Tommy Milone at $3, while unspectacular, should do a good job keeping Caleb’s WHIP low- a good pairing with a high K, high WHIP guy like Morrow.
Andrew
Best pick- Mike Napoli $20. Considering he could outproduce Mark Teixeira (Napoli very nearly did so in 2011 despite having 200 fewer at bats) went for $4 less, and plays catcher, he seems like a pretty good deal.
Worst pick- Bourjos $14. He’s a lot more than I would have liked, especially given the other players that were still on the board (see Lorenzo Cain). The other issue is the $39 I spent on relievers. Holland, Johnson, and Thornton are all decent picks, but I really didn’t need all three of them. I missed the boat on the early starters and didn’t get anyone other than Hellickson, and by the time I figured this out, all the best starters were off the board, leaving me with money to burn and only closers to spend it on.
Notable players- Fister at $4 might end up being my best pick if he can keep up the higher strikeout rates he had post trade and Humber at $2 is solid if you believe in Don Cooper's magical ability to teach the cutter. Neither is a great pitcher, but they should both be decent starters. Rabun at $4 and Morneau at $3 are also solid lottery tickets.
Mark
Best pick- Avila at $8 looks solid. According to ESPN he was the 3rd best catcher last year and projected to be the fifth best this year. He went for $1 more than Doumit and only $2 more than Arencibia. Brett Gardner at $13 is also a solid pick. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’ll give Mark’s team plenty of runs and SBs, while hopefully not hurting his batting average too much.
Worst pick- Kevin Youkilis $23. There really isn’t anything obvious here, but Beltre went for only two dollars more. 3B was very thin due to keepers, though, so it’s not a terrible pick.
Notable players- Mark, like Taylor, did a good job getting his closer handcuff for a reasonable price with Pestano at $5. Morales at $7 seemed a little risky on draft day, but he’s done nothing much mash since then, and could hit 25 hr and drive in 80+ runs. Rajai Davis at $1 is an excellent gamble, especially with Travis Snider being demoted. Should Thames struggle, Davis could regain a starting role in the outfield.
Kate
Best pick- James Shields $22. Shields is coming off an outstanding year, and while no one should expect him to repeat his 2011 season, with that defense behind him he should have another excellent season.
Worst pick- Kendrick Perkins $1. This might also be the best one, for the sheer amount of mirth it caused. Kate also came up with a plus plus team name based on it. “The Perkins Mistake” just might be the best team name since “The 46ers.” Pedroia at $33 is awfully expensive- the potential 40hr bats went for around $40 (and Fielder only $30), Cano only $29, and there was still value at the backend of the position (Kipnis and Weeks primarily).
Notable players- Sean Rodriguez at $3 could work out very nicely for Kate, especially with Reid Brignac sidelined to start the season. I also like Valencia for $1 and De Aza for $5. Neither is a star, and currently not a fantasy starter, but both could be starters if things pan out.
Luke
Best Pick- Robinson Cano $29. Cano came in $4 cheaper than Pedroia. He might not steal many bases, but Cano is a good bet for 90 runs, 100 RBI, and 25 home runs, all while helping your batting average. Cano is also remarkably durable- he’s played in at least 159 games in every of the past five seasons.
Worst pick- Mike Young $19. Luke drafted Young to be his starting first basemen, since he already has Cano ($29) at 2B and Longoria ($36) at 3B.
Notable players- Luke was the most aggressive team in terms of thinking about next season, snagging Victor Martinez for $1 and Mike Trout for $9. Both could be valuable keepers for next season, especially since Martinez should retain catcher eligibility.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Monday, March 26, 2012
ESPN Projected standings
Here are the ESPN projected stats and standings. Taylor, can you lean on the Blogger team to have some sort of easy way to do tables? Html is such a pain in the ass to read/write given that every damn line break in the html code is interpreted as a break.
| Team | Runs | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | K | W | SV | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | 889 | 208 | 802 | 152 | 0.2779 | 995 | 76 | 77 | 3.46 | 1.21 |
| Andrew | 870 | 234 | 811 | 165 | 0.2776 | 896 | 71 | 75 | 3.63 | 1.24 |
| Taylor | 857 | 224 | 793 | 151 | 0.2671 | 999 | 77 | 46 | 3.51 | 1.19 |
| Spencer | 783 | 219 | 817 | 84 | 0.2689 | 1050 | 80 | 74 | 3.59 | 1.21 |
| Luke | 773 | 218 | 859 | 94 | 0.2739 | 1165 | 78 | 57 | 3.60 | 1.23 |
| Kate | 831 | 216 | 778 | 139 | 0.27579 | 1206 | 91 | 40 | 3.56 | 1.26 |
| Mark | 854 | 203 | 803 | 123 | 0.2730 | 976 | 76 | 73 | 3.40 | 1.24 |
| Bill | 790 | 196 | 795 | 120 | 0.2696 | 1062 | 77 | 65 | 3.59 | 1.24 |
| Team | Runs | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | K | W | SV | ERA | WHIP | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 57 |
| Andrew | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 49 |
| Taylor | 6 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 47 |
| Spencer | 2 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 46 |
| Luke | 1 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 44 |
| Kate | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 43 |
| Mark | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 40 |
| Bill | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
Sunday, March 25, 2012
I love my players...
but I hate my team right now. I am ready to deal any of my outfielders or infielders to help shore up shortstop, starting pitching, batting average, or high K relievers to bolster my pitching staff. Let me know if you're interested.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
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