Congrats Caleb

Very nicely done. The key was the trade with Luke; the pitchers you traded for had 5 more wins than the ones you traded away.

Did we ever decide how to split the entry money?

And, more importantly, who wants to start discussing keeper trades?

I can still win (although I really don't like my chances anymore)

Down 3 points with 1 day to go isn't the best situation to be in, but it still could come down to the wire. I need:
1. A bad start by Shields, bad enough to bump up Caleb's ERA 0.02, tying him with me. (+0.5, Caleb loses 0.5)
2. Bad starts by Wakefield and Baker, bad enough to bump up Andrew's WHIP by 0.01. I'll take 0.02, but I don't want to get greedy. (+0.5)
3. I hit 2 more homeruns than Andrew today (+1).
4. I have 2 more RBI than Andrew today (+1).

Alternative, less likely ways I can pick up points are:
1. Vulture a win from a reliever, and none of Caleb's starters win (Shields), and none of Mark's starters win (Millwood, Saunders) (+1, Caleb loses 0.5, Mark loses 0.5)
2. Get a save from all 3 of my closers, while none of Caleb's get a save (+0.5, Caleb loses 0.5).

I guess mostly I'm hoping for a big offensive day across the league, and that my players eek it out against Andrew's. Caleb and I are going head to head in a couple categories, but it really comes down to my team against Andrew's on the final day.

Another big day

So it looks like it will be an interesting week. I'm now 1 point behind Caleb, after passing him in ERA (thanks Edwin Jackson!), gaining half a point in WHIP from Spencer and tying then passing Andrew in HR.

I still can make up ground in HR (1 behind Caleb), RBI (2 behind Andrew), WHIP (0.01 behind Andrew - thanks Carmona!), and potentially (although much less likely), saves and wins (both 2 back on Caleb).

My team has been manic depressive all year long. If they can keep up the hot streak all that frustration will be worth it.

Holy shit! J.D. started

JD Drew actually started the game tonight, and went 1-2 with a run in tonight's game. I guess he's not done for the season, or he just wanted another shot at Carmona.

How I can win.

At this point the winner will either be me or Caleb. Although Mark is ahead of me right now (42 to 41.5), his pitching staff hasn't been strong enough to allow him to pick up any more points. Because he currently is leading in all the offensive categories but stolen bases (where he trails me by 12), he won't be able to pick up any points there. In the pitching categories he is leading the league in wins, and well behind in WHIP (0.06) and probably far enough behind in ERA (0.13) that he won't be able to catch Spencer. 27 saves behind me and 26 strikeouts behind Spencer, he won't be able to make up any ground in either of those categories as well. In fact, now that Ziegler may have lost the Oakland closer job, and because Mark is using lots of starting pitchers this week, he may lose a point to Luke, who is one save behind him.

Caleb also is not in a good position to gain any more points, although he only needs to hang on to what he has. He might be able to gain a point on Mark in wins (3 back), but with Mark starting a full complement of starters, that will be difficult. The only other category where he could pick up a point is in RBI, where he trails me by ten, but that isn't likely to change in a week.

Now, the interesting part (at least for me). Depending on how this last week plays out, I could gain as many as 5.5 points. The key will be homeruns and RBI, which is why I snagged guys like Napoli, Cust, and Shealy for this last week. After today's outburst, which made me much happier with my team, I'm two homeruns behind Andrew, and three behind Caleb. I'm also 5 RBI behind Andrew, so with a solid power week I could be at 44.5, with Caleb losing at least one, possibly two points (to 45 or 44). I could also gain points in wins (1 behind Caleb, assuming the Royals bullpen doesn't blow it) and, surprisingly, ERA, where I trail Caleb by only 0.04, thanks to a great week by my pitchers. Gaining a point in either category, and taking one from Caleb, would be huge. Finally, I'm also tied with Spencer right now for WHIP at 1.29. I probably won't be able to catch Andrew (1.27), but an extra 0.5 points would be huge. At this point in the season, one terrible start could be the difference between winning the league, and finishing second and ending up with a shitty draft pick. Hopefully it will be an interesting final week.

Hmm.

I'm projected to finish the season with 1252 IP, I'm currently at 1194. Counting the 1.1 innings I've got tonight, that means Yahoo projects me to bring in 56 innings in th e next week. I can't figure that one out. Even if I started 6 SPs, and they all got 7 IP, I'd still need 14 innings from two RPs. As it stands, I was going to start 4 SPs, with 4 RPs, but that won't get me anywhere near the IP limit. Their math is funky, right? I'll probably finish 20-25 IP short of the limit.

Add Beltre to the list

After playing all year with a torn ligament in his thumb, Beltre is shutting it down after this weekend. That makes 1B (Kotchman), 2B (Kinsler), 3B (Beltre), OF (Crawford), OF (Manny), OF ( Quentin), SP (Haren), and SP (Sabathia). BJ Upton also has a quad injury right now, and has been held out of the last 5 games, Sherill hasn't pitched in a month, and Michael Young has broken bones in his right hand, and may be shut down soon as well.

It was said it would take an incredible amount of bad luck for me not to win. I think I've managed to cover that. Thank God football has started, although the Brady injury is worse than all of these injuries and trades combined.

Woah, what happened to the standings? Is Caleb now the team to beat??

Mystery player

This player is hitting .333/.378/.505 for the season, and an incredible .366/.415/.583 since the All-Star break. He's hit just about everywhere in the lineup - leading off, in the 2 hole, and even clean-up. He's on pace for a 20/20 season, and also plays good defense at an up the middle position for a team that is fighting for a playoff spot, yet somehow doesn't have much MVP buzz.

I think Dustin Pedroia deserves a little more credit than he has been getting.

More football hilarity

Rudi Johnson called Tatum Bell a "shyster" and "conniving" after Bell stole Rudi's duffel bags in the Lions' locker room Monday.

"Underwear, socks, credit cards and money. He left my money clip with no money in it," said Johnson, who had $200 stolen. "He should've taken the clip, too. It's quite stupid if you ask me." Rudi says he won't call the police

Batting average

Although I was joking in my last post, batting average is still more volitile that I would have expected. In the last week by team has added 4 points of average, making it possible (although still not particularly likely) for me to catch some of the folks ahead of me. Dustin Pedroia, Nick Markakis, Bobby Abreu, and Billy Butler are all hitting .400, or just about. Out of curiousity, I took a look at the AB and H totals for my team. Even at this stage of the season, a monster day (20/40) can raise a teams average by .002, and a really hot stretch (10/10) can raise it by a point. Hard to believe after almost 6,000 at bats that is the case, but average still will move up and down. Of course, it is easier to bump your average up than it is to drive it down, but batting average might end up being an interesting category after all.