Hopefully I'll be able to hang on to some of those points, although a really good day with runs or wins could pick me up another few points. While I can't really expect to score 8, drive in 14, hit 3 homeruns, and steal 2 bags a day, it looks like this last month of the season will be very interesting...
It is amazing how tight all the offensive categories are when there hasn't been a ton of action in any of the pitching categories besides wins.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Friday, August 24, 2007
Jermaine Dye versus J.D. Drew
An ongoing debate between Spencer and I has centered over whether or not the Red Sox should have traded for Jermaine Dye this season. I am firmly in the camp that it would not have been worth giving up on Drew and trading prospects while Spencer feels like Dye is the missing link that would make this good team great. After arguing about this with Spencer and Bill for the better part of last night as we waited for the Sox Sox game that never was, I open the Metro sports section to this headline:
"Red Sox missed out on Dye job." The article goes on to say, "the 6-foot-5, 240-pounder could have been the perfect antidote to a wildly inconsistent and sometimes inadequate Red Sox offense."
There is no debate over who has more raw power. Over their careers, Dye has hit 20 or more HRs 7 times while JD has only done this 3 times. However, I think solely looking at HRs vastly overlooks Dye's weaknesses and undervalues Drew's strengths.
Let's look at some of the PECOTA metrics that measure a players total contribution to the offense: VORP and EQA.
VORP:
'07 '06 '05
Dye 7.8 64.6 27.7
Drew 5.6 34.9 26.9
EQA
'07 '06 '05
Dye .259 .312 .277
Drew .257 .299 .320
EQA is a translated statistic to mirror how we think about batting average so "batting" an EQA of .300 would be considered good and "batting" an EQA of .330 would be considered great.
Over their careers, Dye has finished the season with an EQA over .300 only two times in 13 seasons with 200+ at bats. Drew has finished with an EQA over .300 FOUR times in 9 seasons with over 200 AB (this includes every year he has played except for his rookie season of 36 ABs. He also had a season with an EQA of .299)
From these metrics, I conclude that Drew is a better offensive value than Dye. Even though Dye is on a hot streak, how long it lasts and if it would carry over into the postseason are two unknowns that I wouldn't trade Delcarman for or give up on Drew for (who we have for the next 4 years, like it or not).
"Red Sox missed out on Dye job." The article goes on to say, "the 6-foot-5, 240-pounder could have been the perfect antidote to a wildly inconsistent and sometimes inadequate Red Sox offense."
There is no debate over who has more raw power. Over their careers, Dye has hit 20 or more HRs 7 times while JD has only done this 3 times. However, I think solely looking at HRs vastly overlooks Dye's weaknesses and undervalues Drew's strengths.
Let's look at some of the PECOTA metrics that measure a players total contribution to the offense: VORP and EQA.
VORP:
'07 '06 '05
Dye 7.8 64.6 27.7
Drew 5.6 34.9 26.9
EQA
'07 '06 '05
Dye .259 .312 .277
Drew .257 .299 .320
EQA is a translated statistic to mirror how we think about batting average so "batting" an EQA of .300 would be considered good and "batting" an EQA of .330 would be considered great.
Over their careers, Dye has finished the season with an EQA over .300 only two times in 13 seasons with 200+ at bats. Drew has finished with an EQA over .300 FOUR times in 9 seasons with over 200 AB (this includes every year he has played except for his rookie season of 36 ABs. He also had a season with an EQA of .299)
From these metrics, I conclude that Drew is a better offensive value than Dye. Even though Dye is on a hot streak, how long it lasts and if it would carry over into the postseason are two unknowns that I wouldn't trade Delcarman for or give up on Drew for (who we have for the next 4 years, like it or not).
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Oh C'mon.
Texas scores 30 runs and Michael Young doesn't get a single RBI. How does that even happen?
Meanwhile, Dave Murphy (who I was hoping would get a permanent big league spot with the Sox next year so that I could get a Murphy shirt) is batting .550, and Gagne blows.
Meanwhile, Dave Murphy (who I was hoping would get a permanent big league spot with the Sox next year so that I could get a Murphy shirt) is batting .550, and Gagne blows.
Friday, August 17, 2007
My god, what has he done.
With the first pick in the 2008 draft, Pete Rose Legacy drafts... Alex Rodriguez. With the second pick of the 2008 draft, Pete Rose Legacy drafts Johan Santana.
Fuck us all.
Seriously though, what was the rationale behind this deal? The best category for Caleb to gain points is in RBI. He just traded away the league leader in RBIs and HRs for a player who is vastly under performing and is hampered by a bad knee. Ortiz will probably become only the 3rd player in MLB history to hit 50+ hrs one year and less than 30 the next (Gonzo and Brady Anderson). With the new players, Caleb has a shot at gaining 1 point in SB and 1 point in average, but that won't even be close to enough to win the league even if his HR numbers hold. Johjima for Pudge is pretty equal, although seeing that Johjima is 4 years younger and has better PECOTA projections than Pudge, I'd value Johjima a little higher in a keeper league. Ichiro is a nice player, but nowhere near the caliber of A-Rod.
Can someone rationalize this to make me feel better? Spencer will have the 2 best players in the AL all next year. That is a significant advantage especially considering that one of the two is only going to cost a 2nd round pick. AH!!!!
Fuck us all.
Seriously though, what was the rationale behind this deal? The best category for Caleb to gain points is in RBI. He just traded away the league leader in RBIs and HRs for a player who is vastly under performing and is hampered by a bad knee. Ortiz will probably become only the 3rd player in MLB history to hit 50+ hrs one year and less than 30 the next (Gonzo and Brady Anderson). With the new players, Caleb has a shot at gaining 1 point in SB and 1 point in average, but that won't even be close to enough to win the league even if his HR numbers hold. Johjima for Pudge is pretty equal, although seeing that Johjima is 4 years younger and has better PECOTA projections than Pudge, I'd value Johjima a little higher in a keeper league. Ichiro is a nice player, but nowhere near the caliber of A-Rod.
Can someone rationalize this to make me feel better? Spencer will have the 2 best players in the AL all next year. That is a significant advantage especially considering that one of the two is only going to cost a 2nd round pick. AH!!!!
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Keeper Rules
Ok, because this may have an impact on how people value keepers for a trade, lets make sure everyone is clear on the keeper rule. If there are any objections to the keeper format or the proposed keeper draft values speak now or forever hold your peace.
At the conclusion of the season, each team will have until March 1 to designate up to 5 players as keepers. In addition, a team can designate 1 "prospect pick". This is a player that has been on your roster since August 7th and has never had >100 AB or >50 IP in a single major league season.
A player can be kept a total of 3 times. This gives you 4 seasons with any given player. Prospects can be kept as a your prospect pick indefinitely until they have a season with 100 AB or 50 IP. After that, they may be kept a total of 3 times as one of your five regular keeper picks.
If a keeper is traded he is still considered to have been kept in the previous season(s). If a player is dropped, his keeper status is automatically reset.
Proposed Keeper Draft Values: The value of your keeper increases 10 percent (rounded up) for the 3rd and 4th year drafts. So, a player drafted in the 20th round this year will be a 20 round pick next year, an 18th round pick in year 3, and a 16th round pick in year 4.
If you end up with multiple picks in a round (e.g. 2 third round picks) the subsequent rounds will be used. (e.g. 2 third round picks = 1 third and 1 fourth round pick).
At the conclusion of the season, each team will have until March 1 to designate up to 5 players as keepers. In addition, a team can designate 1 "prospect pick". This is a player that has been on your roster since August 7th and has never had >100 AB or >50 IP in a single major league season.
A player can be kept a total of 3 times. This gives you 4 seasons with any given player. Prospects can be kept as a your prospect pick indefinitely until they have a season with 100 AB or 50 IP. After that, they may be kept a total of 3 times as one of your five regular keeper picks.
If a keeper is traded he is still considered to have been kept in the previous season(s). If a player is dropped, his keeper status is automatically reset.
Proposed Keeper Draft Values: The value of your keeper increases 10 percent (rounded up) for the 3rd and 4th year drafts. So, a player drafted in the 20th round this year will be a 20 round pick next year, an 18th round pick in year 3, and a 16th round pick in year 4.
If you end up with multiple picks in a round (e.g. 2 third round picks) the subsequent rounds will be used. (e.g. 2 third round picks = 1 third and 1 fourth round pick).
| Initial Draft | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | 15 | 13 | 11 |
| 16 | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| 17 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 18 | 18 | 16 | 14 |
| 19 | 19 | 17 | 15 |
| 20 | 20 | 18 | 16 |
| 21 | 21 | 18 | 16 |
| 22 | 22 | 19 | 17 |
| 23 | 23 | 20 | 18 |
| 24 | 24 | 21 | 18 |
| 25 | 25 | 22 | 19 |
Saturday, August 4, 2007
NL stats are NOT being counted
I don't think that is right. While it initially looks like Texiera is still accumulating points, if you look at the team log this is Teixeira's stat line:
H/AB: 85/286
Runs: 48
HR: 13
RBI: 49
SB: 0
These match his totals for the AL only. His current total for the season:
H/AB: 90/301
Runs: 53
HR: 16
RBI: 56
SB: 0
The difference between the two stat lines is identical to the stats he has accumulated in his 3 games with Atlanta:
H/AB: 5/15
Runs: 5
HR: 3
RBI: 7
SB: 0
So I think what is happening is that the stat tracker makes it look like NL stats are counting, but at the end of the day when the stats are actually tallied, anything from an NL game does not count in our AL only league.
H/AB: 85/286
Runs: 48
HR: 13
RBI: 49
SB: 0
These match his totals for the AL only. His current total for the season:
H/AB: 90/301
Runs: 53
HR: 16
RBI: 56
SB: 0
The difference between the two stat lines is identical to the stats he has accumulated in his 3 games with Atlanta:
H/AB: 5/15
Runs: 5
HR: 3
RBI: 7
SB: 0
So I think what is happening is that the stat tracker makes it look like NL stats are counting, but at the end of the day when the stats are actually tallied, anything from an NL game does not count in our AL only league.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
RE: Yahoo Ruling
Apparently what Yahoo said is incorrect. Teixeira is still on Youk's roster and was accumulating points for him. It works out b/c we rather not lose players to the NL. However, any players traded to the AL from the NL are still not eligible to be picked up. So that catcher from atlanta with the 14 letter name (Saltamamaccia?) is not eligible.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
One more keeper rule question
When you say that someone can be "kept" for 3 years, does that mean I can KEEP them for 3 years (and have them for 4 years on my roster, this year, and then the 3 years I keep them) or does it mean I get them on my roster for 3 years?
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