Thursday, May 31, 2007
Seriously
My team is supposed to be Consistently Erratic, not Consistently hitting 240 and sucking at pitching. It was fun while it lasted, but I don't see my team climbing out of this 4th place hole. At least I'm still doing better than les frères Murphy.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Pretty pictures
I've put together a few charts based on the daily data Yahoo has, but doesn't archive. I didn't have time to put together a chart for everything, but here are some charts and thoughts for average, runs, ERA, and WHIP. Just a quick caveat, although this is presented as a line graph, however adjacent data points aren't necessarily consecutive days because of missing data (it wasn't possible to create an X-Y scatter plot using a pivot chart).
Average - it is pretty clear it is still early enough that average can still change quickly. In the middle of May there was a .030 difference in batting average between the leader (Andrew) and the last place team (me). As recently as the 23rd this was still the case; however over the next week Andrew's team entered a prolonged slump (which unsurprisingly finally led to the end of his reign at the top) and my team gained 0.014 in average. As of right now average is the most competitive category and seems to be the most dynamic - two or three really good days (especially if they are coupled with poor showings from the other teams) could propel any team to the top.
Runs - Unlike the batting average standings, the standings for runs have spread out over the last 2.5 weeks. It just isn't possible for a team to score 30 runs in a couple of days, maybe that distance can be made up in a week or two, but the runs standings just aren't as dynamic as the standings for batting average.
Initially, Luke, Caleb, Mark, and Andrew were all clustered at first, however Mark has started to pull away from the pack. Spencer and I continue to fight for 2nd to last place in runs and are falling increasingly behind the 4th place team.
As far as the implications of these graphs, my interpretation is that if you're looking to make up ground, trading for batting average is probably the easiest way to catch up. Unlike counting stats, your opponents can lose ground without your team having to accomplish anything. You would expect to see similar things happen for WHIP and ERA, however those rankings have been remarkably consistent and have not been as competitive as batting average. If I have time I'll post some graphs for the pitching stats tonight or tomorrow.
Average - it is pretty clear it is still early enough that average can still change quickly. In the middle of May there was a .030 difference in batting average between the leader (Andrew) and the last place team (me). As recently as the 23rd this was still the case; however over the next week Andrew's team entered a prolonged slump (which unsurprisingly finally led to the end of his reign at the top) and my team gained 0.014 in average. As of right now average is the most competitive category and seems to be the most dynamic - two or three really good days (especially if they are coupled with poor showings from the other teams) could propel any team to the top.
Runs - Unlike the batting average standings, the standings for runs have spread out over the last 2.5 weeks. It just isn't possible for a team to score 30 runs in a couple of days, maybe that distance can be made up in a week or two, but the runs standings just aren't as dynamic as the standings for batting average.
Initially, Luke, Caleb, Mark, and Andrew were all clustered at first, however Mark has started to pull away from the pack. Spencer and I continue to fight for 2nd to last place in runs and are falling increasingly behind the 4th place team.
As far as the implications of these graphs, my interpretation is that if you're looking to make up ground, trading for batting average is probably the easiest way to catch up. Unlike counting stats, your opponents can lose ground without your team having to accomplish anything. You would expect to see similar things happen for WHIP and ERA, however those rankings have been remarkably consistent and have not been as competitive as batting average. If I have time I'll post some graphs for the pitching stats tonight or tomorrow.
Rivera and Gagne are available for trade.
I'm giving up on saves.
All offers other than Nate Robertson will be seriously considered.
All offers other than Nate Robertson will be seriously considered.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Friday, May 18, 2007
How I hate Ozzie Guillen.
Beuhrle (who's been a very decent pick, remarkably) had a nice outing today, until he came back out for the 7th inning, and after throwing over 105 pitches, coughed up a couple of baserunners. Ozzie Guillen, the "smart-ball" guy himself, pulled Buehrle just a little too late and replaced him with Mike F'ing McDougal and his 5.50 ERA, who promptly allowed the two baserunners to come around on a deep triple. There goes the nice ERA, there goes my win. Ozzie Guillen is an ass.
Team stats for those who are interested...
For those of you who are frustrated by the inability to view standings from earlier in the season and track how your team is doing over a longer period of time I've been putting together an access database of the full standings page. Right now I only have data from May 15th on, so it isn't the most interesting thing to look at, but I'll try to keep up over the summer (and have conscripted Andrew to copy the data for me when I'm out in the field). If you're interested in taking a look I can send you the file; unfortunately there doesn't seem to be an easy way to post it here.
Another home run for Dye today
I'm psyched he's breaking out but GET HIM ON MY TEAM ALREADY. Jesus, this weekly crap is KILLING me.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Mark this day
Yes folks, it happened. The LickerStore AllStars got a win last night. After 14 consectuive days of drought, AJ Burnett pitches a complete game. Meanwhile, Mr. Bill's team gets 142 wins from his relievers.
Let's consider what happened between May 2nd and May 16th:
Eric Bedard
The stats speak for themselves: 3 starts, 2.25 era, 0.95 WHIP, 9.45 K/9, 0 Wins
Nate Robertson
Decided to spot start him here. Detroit is riding an 8 game winning streak and Robertson puts up a first class stinker against Seattle.
Joe Blanton
Gets two wins sitting on my bench. WTF. Didn't start him against Tampa Bay b/c was up against the Red Sox earlier in the week. Didn't start him against Cleveland because Cleveland has a good offense and I have 3 of their best hitters on my team. New Rule: Always start Blanton.
AJ Burnett
Admittedly, made a mistake by not starting him against Tampa on May 11. In his last three starts Burnett is 2-1 with 29 strikeouts. New Rule: Always start Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Pitches a no decision gem against Minnesota and then can't pull his head out of the sand to beat Kansas City. The goddamn Royals for fuck's sake. Before fantasy, I always used to root for the underdog teams. Now they just cause me great pain and mental anguish when my pitchers can't beat them.
King Felix
Is there any real reason to read injury reports? I put Hernandez into my lineup Sunday, April 29th after reports say he'll pitch Friday against the Yankees. On Wednesday, May 2nd, I find out that Hernandez won't pitch Friday after all. Ok, fine. Better safe than sorry. Friday rolls around and the Mariners say they'll move his start back 6 days... Ok, do the math, May 5th plus 6 days equals.... May 15th apparently. In a day-to-day league this wouldn't be a problem but don't they consider all the people out there in a weekly league? For crying out loud, I'm 75 innings behind pace!!!
Let's consider what happened between May 2nd and May 16th:
Eric Bedard
The stats speak for themselves: 3 starts, 2.25 era, 0.95 WHIP, 9.45 K/9, 0 Wins
Nate Robertson
Decided to spot start him here. Detroit is riding an 8 game winning streak and Robertson puts up a first class stinker against Seattle.
Joe Blanton
Gets two wins sitting on my bench. WTF. Didn't start him against Tampa Bay b/c was up against the Red Sox earlier in the week. Didn't start him against Cleveland because Cleveland has a good offense and I have 3 of their best hitters on my team. New Rule: Always start Blanton.
AJ Burnett
Admittedly, made a mistake by not starting him against Tampa on May 11. In his last three starts Burnett is 2-1 with 29 strikeouts. New Rule: Always start Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Pitches a no decision gem against Minnesota and then can't pull his head out of the sand to beat Kansas City. The goddamn Royals for fuck's sake. Before fantasy, I always used to root for the underdog teams. Now they just cause me great pain and mental anguish when my pitchers can't beat them.
King Felix
Is there any real reason to read injury reports? I put Hernandez into my lineup Sunday, April 29th after reports say he'll pitch Friday against the Yankees. On Wednesday, May 2nd, I find out that Hernandez won't pitch Friday after all. Ok, fine. Better safe than sorry. Friday rolls around and the Mariners say they'll move his start back 6 days... Ok, do the math, May 5th plus 6 days equals.... May 15th apparently. In a day-to-day league this wouldn't be a problem but don't they consider all the people out there in a weekly league? For crying out loud, I'm 75 innings behind pace!!!
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Well that didn't take long...
Baldelli hurt his hamstring in the first inning tonight. Luke, it looks like this just isn't your year.
From the source....
I love that a trade between the league's two bottom-dwellers generates this much analysis - what will happen when we see a real blockbuster between Caleb and Andrew?
For what it's worth, I think the trade is a slightly better deal for Yoouuuk if you look at in a vacuum, but actually does a nice job of filling both team's needs.
For me, I obviously am in desperate need of power, and while I'd be surprised if Dye comes close to last year, I'm hoping for 2005 production as long as he stays healthy, which will still be a big lift. Cano (assuming he bounced back) would be useful, but not as useful as the HRs and RBIs I could potentially get from Dye.
For Youuuk, he gets a potential keeper (I think I took Cano in the 7th) at a relatively shallow spot. I think Cano's upside is to be something like Derek Jeter - a high average hitter in a great lineup that therefore gets a ton of RBI's and runs, and the occasional stolen base. On the other hand, he's young, got very lucky last season with his average, and as others have pointed out is very impatient at the plate.
Baldelli's value is really hurt by the weekly format in my opinion. The guy gets more rest because he's been injury plagued, plus, he's injury plagued. Baldelli's got some decent all-around value (some SBs, decent average, decent power) but with my outfield having Magglio, Ichiro, and Dye plus Sosa and hopefully Adam Lind coming on, I didn't see a lot of value for him, particularly with him hitting 0.34 in march so far.
Iguchi is more or less useless I guess.
So Youuuk gets a good potential keeper (especially valuable for him if he gives up on the year), I get the power I really needed and give up a guy I probably wasn't going to play anyway.
For what it's worth, I think the trade is a slightly better deal for Yoouuuk if you look at in a vacuum, but actually does a nice job of filling both team's needs.
For me, I obviously am in desperate need of power, and while I'd be surprised if Dye comes close to last year, I'm hoping for 2005 production as long as he stays healthy, which will still be a big lift. Cano (assuming he bounced back) would be useful, but not as useful as the HRs and RBIs I could potentially get from Dye.
For Youuuk, he gets a potential keeper (I think I took Cano in the 7th) at a relatively shallow spot. I think Cano's upside is to be something like Derek Jeter - a high average hitter in a great lineup that therefore gets a ton of RBI's and runs, and the occasional stolen base. On the other hand, he's young, got very lucky last season with his average, and as others have pointed out is very impatient at the plate.
Baldelli's value is really hurt by the weekly format in my opinion. The guy gets more rest because he's been injury plagued, plus, he's injury plagued. Baldelli's got some decent all-around value (some SBs, decent average, decent power) but with my outfield having Magglio, Ichiro, and Dye plus Sosa and hopefully Adam Lind coming on, I didn't see a lot of value for him, particularly with him hitting 0.34 in march so far.
Iguchi is more or less useless I guess.
So Youuuk gets a good potential keeper (especially valuable for him if he gives up on the year), I get the power I really needed and give up a guy I probably wasn't going to play anyway.
Some thoughts on Cano
At first I thought that Spencer was making a mistake giving up Cano and Baldelli, two solid young players with keeper possibilities. Of all the teams, he had one that could sacrifice speed from a middle infielder for batting average (which is lacking from speedsters like Podsednik or Figgins) and a bunch of runs from the Yankees strong lineup. However, looking more closely at Robinson Cano's stats, this season is looking like an absolute disaster for him unless he quickly develops more plate discipline. Unlike Dye (or Baldelli for that matter), Cano has a perfectly reasonable BABIP of 0.290. His success in 2005 (0.320) and especially 2006 (0.363) was driven by BABIP. On top of the BABIP drop, he also isn't putting the ball in play nearly as often. His strike out rate is up from 10% and 12% all the way up to 20%. A high strikeout rate isn't necessarily bad, lots of excellent power hitters have high rates, but for someone who doesn't hit a lot of homeruns and relies on putting the ball in play and legging out a single that kind of spike in K rate cripples their value.
The reason his numbers are down is pretty clear - he's chasing an awful lot of bad pitches. According to the Stats Inc. data available on ESPN, he's chasing around 50% of pitches inside (58% up and in, 53% in, 41% down and in). He's also chasing 76% of the pitches that are high and over the middle, which is the highest percentage I could find doing a quick search for some notorious hackers.
If Cano can stop chasing pitches and Baldelli can stay healthy, Youk! might come out ahead on this one. But Dye seems like a much safer better bounce-back possibility to me, even if he isn't worth a keeper slot. He's also the best player in the trade, and Youk! doesn't have a clear starting spot for Baldelli (or Cano for that matter if Jose Lopez can match his 2006 season), so Spencer's everyday line-up gets a much needed power and RBI boost.
The reason his numbers are down is pretty clear - he's chasing an awful lot of bad pitches. According to the Stats Inc. data available on ESPN, he's chasing around 50% of pitches inside (58% up and in, 53% in, 41% down and in). He's also chasing 76% of the pitches that are high and over the middle, which is the highest percentage I could find doing a quick search for some notorious hackers.
If Cano can stop chasing pitches and Baldelli can stay healthy, Youk! might come out ahead on this one. But Dye seems like a much safer better bounce-back possibility to me, even if he isn't worth a keeper slot. He's also the best player in the trade, and Youk! doesn't have a clear starting spot for Baldelli (or Cano for that matter if Jose Lopez can match his 2006 season), so Spencer's everyday line-up gets a much needed power and RBI boost.
Monday, May 14, 2007
Transaction Analysis - Jermaine Dye
Traded: Robinson Cano and Rocco Baldelli (Pete Rose) for Jermaine Dye and Tadihito Iguchi (Youke).
The first trade of the league has taken place featuring two under performing players. Jermaine Dye provides some much needed power to Pete Rose Legacy while Robinson Cano is a potential keeper for Yoouke at a thin position.
First I will look at Dye with analysis on Cano later.
The concerning thing about Dye is that he has essential played 2.5 consecutive months of sub-par and awful baseball. Last September, Dye hit .256/5/13 and so far this season is hitting .203/6/17. Another .315/44/120 season is not going to happen. Last season (up until September) Dye was hitting one home run every 11.5 at bats - a torrid pace. Since then, Dye is hitting one home run every 19.3 at bats, which is much more in line with his career numbers (1 per 20.7 AB). While this is a large drop from last year, it doesn't surprise me that Dye has regressed to his mean - most players with huge seasons do. He is striking out more than last year, but not outside his range (at his current pace he will come close or just pass his career high). Interestingly, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is about the best it's ever been, which is usually indicative of improved hitting. On the upside, the balls he does hit in play are only dropping for hits at a .221 rate (league average ~ .290), which will undoubtedly improve considering his low ground ball percentage.
What this all tells me is that Dye is up there trying to hit 50 homeruns while he is really only a 30 HR guy. Without Thome in the lineup, Dye is the only true HR threat and probably puts pressure on himself to hit for power. All this has done is decimate his average while not producing any more home runs for himself. Assuming one home run per 19 at bats and 530 at bats, Dye will hit 27-28 home runs in 2007. He's already hit 6, leaving 21-22 more for Spencer. To improve his average to a modest .265 by the end of the season, Dye will have to hit .280 from today on. I think this is a reachable goal, and one I'm assuming he'll based on his increased value over the last 3 seasons.
For RBI's and runs, the decreased average and on base percentage has hurt. Dye was driving in 0.2 batters per plate appearance in 2006 - a rate that rewarded him with 120 RBIs. In 2007, Dye's RBI rate has dropped to 0.12. Assuming that Dye improves his average, his RBI rate should climb closer to 0.17. Currently, runners are on base 55.6% of the time Dye is up to bat. Even if this drops to 50 percent when Thome returns, Dye will still have roughly the same number of opportunities as he's had in the past. Translated over 463 more plate appearances, this should give Dye 78 more RBI (95 for the year).
In summary, Dye gets Spencer
.280/21/78
Not too shabby. Considering the lack of HR and RBI producers on his team, I think this acquisition will be beneficial. Of course, this all assumes Dye breaks out of his slump.
Thoughts on Cano to follow...
The first trade of the league has taken place featuring two under performing players. Jermaine Dye provides some much needed power to Pete Rose Legacy while Robinson Cano is a potential keeper for Yoouke at a thin position.
First I will look at Dye with analysis on Cano later.
The concerning thing about Dye is that he has essential played 2.5 consecutive months of sub-par and awful baseball. Last September, Dye hit .256/5/13 and so far this season is hitting .203/6/17. Another .315/44/120 season is not going to happen. Last season (up until September) Dye was hitting one home run every 11.5 at bats - a torrid pace. Since then, Dye is hitting one home run every 19.3 at bats, which is much more in line with his career numbers (1 per 20.7 AB). While this is a large drop from last year, it doesn't surprise me that Dye has regressed to his mean - most players with huge seasons do. He is striking out more than last year, but not outside his range (at his current pace he will come close or just pass his career high). Interestingly, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is about the best it's ever been, which is usually indicative of improved hitting. On the upside, the balls he does hit in play are only dropping for hits at a .221 rate (league average ~ .290), which will undoubtedly improve considering his low ground ball percentage.
What this all tells me is that Dye is up there trying to hit 50 homeruns while he is really only a 30 HR guy. Without Thome in the lineup, Dye is the only true HR threat and probably puts pressure on himself to hit for power. All this has done is decimate his average while not producing any more home runs for himself. Assuming one home run per 19 at bats and 530 at bats, Dye will hit 27-28 home runs in 2007. He's already hit 6, leaving 21-22 more for Spencer. To improve his average to a modest .265 by the end of the season, Dye will have to hit .280 from today on. I think this is a reachable goal, and one I'm assuming he'll based on his increased value over the last 3 seasons.
For RBI's and runs, the decreased average and on base percentage has hurt. Dye was driving in 0.2 batters per plate appearance in 2006 - a rate that rewarded him with 120 RBIs. In 2007, Dye's RBI rate has dropped to 0.12. Assuming that Dye improves his average, his RBI rate should climb closer to 0.17. Currently, runners are on base 55.6% of the time Dye is up to bat. Even if this drops to 50 percent when Thome returns, Dye will still have roughly the same number of opportunities as he's had in the past. Translated over 463 more plate appearances, this should give Dye 78 more RBI (95 for the year).
In summary, Dye gets Spencer
.280/21/78
Not too shabby. Considering the lack of HR and RBI producers on his team, I think this acquisition will be beneficial. Of course, this all assumes Dye breaks out of his slump.
Thoughts on Cano to follow...
Saturday, May 12, 2007
ICHIRO!!!
Ichiro stole a base last night!! That means 2 things:
1) He remembered that in baseball there is the possibility to advance on the basepaths without the batter hitting the ball
and
2) He got on base.
I think we can all agree these are TREMENDOUS signs of progress. The rise to the top starts now!
1) He remembered that in baseball there is the possibility to advance on the basepaths without the batter hitting the ball
and
2) He got on base.
I think we can all agree these are TREMENDOUS signs of progress. The rise to the top starts now!
Friday, May 11, 2007
Why Roy Halladay sucks...
APPENDICITIS? APPENDIFUCKINGCITIS?
Did he have appendicitis last week, when he gave up 9 runs to Texas, or just last night?
I really hate the Blue Jays.
Did he have appendicitis last week, when he gave up 9 runs to Texas, or just last night?
I really hate the Blue Jays.
April Showers
Is anyone as annoyed as I am that Bill's relievers have chalked up 6 wins for him thus far. A guy blowing a save to end up with the win is like having unprotected sex and ending up being the father of Anna Nicole's daughter/estate.
An early favorite for the "most optimism for a lost cause" award is The Pete Rose Legacy. It's kinda cute though - in a Charlie Brown Christmas kind of way. Ty Wiggington never had a bigger fan. Although, I think Wiggs may be a little Jealous now that Mike Lowell is stealing the spotlight. Unfortuantely, there is only so much love for waiver wire junkies to go around.
It's funny how year in and year out you inevitably see the same guys flip-flopping between the waiver wire and a roster spot. Like weed they're good in moderation, but not good to build a life around. Today Melvin Mora is my drug of choice. I remember going to a Red Sox/Orioles game in Camden yard back in y2k with the crowd chanting, "MELVIN, MORA... MELVIN, MORA" in a playful yet slightly mocking sort of way. Always liked the guy since then - don't know why. (On a side note, Ricky Henderson led off for the Sox that night, went 0-4 with about 4 strikeouts but did draw a walk and stole 2nd base. The next O's/Sox game I saw featured a Carlos Baerga brawl in fenway - still possibly the most memorable fenway moment of my life.)
I wonder if it ever occurred to Luke that drafting Mariano Rivera might now work when you fill your team with Red Sox players. Ceaser's Palace odds that Luke has tried mixing ammonia with bleach- 3:1
Trivia question of the week - who was the last DH/Left fielder tandem to play for the Red Sox in the post season NOT featuring Big Papi and/or Manny Ramirez. Bonus points for nicknames.
An early favorite for the "most optimism for a lost cause" award is The Pete Rose Legacy. It's kinda cute though - in a Charlie Brown Christmas kind of way. Ty Wiggington never had a bigger fan. Although, I think Wiggs may be a little Jealous now that Mike Lowell is stealing the spotlight. Unfortuantely, there is only so much love for waiver wire junkies to go around.
It's funny how year in and year out you inevitably see the same guys flip-flopping between the waiver wire and a roster spot. Like weed they're good in moderation, but not good to build a life around. Today Melvin Mora is my drug of choice. I remember going to a Red Sox/Orioles game in Camden yard back in y2k with the crowd chanting, "MELVIN, MORA... MELVIN, MORA" in a playful yet slightly mocking sort of way. Always liked the guy since then - don't know why. (On a side note, Ricky Henderson led off for the Sox that night, went 0-4 with about 4 strikeouts but did draw a walk and stole 2nd base. The next O's/Sox game I saw featured a Carlos Baerga brawl in fenway - still possibly the most memorable fenway moment of my life.)
I wonder if it ever occurred to Luke that drafting Mariano Rivera might now work when you fill your team with Red Sox players. Ceaser's Palace odds that Luke has tried mixing ammonia with bleach- 3:1
Trivia question of the week - who was the last DH/Left fielder tandem to play for the Red Sox in the post season NOT featuring Big Papi and/or Manny Ramirez. Bonus points for nicknames.
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